Singapore: post-race analysis 2016

The race was a cracker from start to finish. So much happened I may struggle to mention everything of note. The bet didn’t come off, but I was a little surprised the hedge wasn’t matched, which is a shame. It was close enough to be considered value, but hats off to Mr. Sandpit for his 5.9 pre-weekend tip on Rosberg.

Before the start, Grosjean recorded a first DNS (did not start) in his career. The Frenchman is not a happy bunny at Haas.

Off the start, it was formation flying for the top three and Raikkonen, but Verstappen left his handbrake on and slid down the order like a dancer with a pole. This led to Hulkenberg, who had started well, going around the Dutchman only to be tagged by Sainz, leading to him crashing out on lap 1 (indeed, the opening straight) and the safety car coming out for a couple of laps.

Bottas suffered a puncture at this stage which meant a very slow lap, an early stop and woe. The misery continued later on when he stopped again, his seat belt came undone, and it took so long to refasten that the engine cooked. After another lap he had to retire the car.

The safety car came in, but one marshal stayed out and nearly discovered what happens when a front wing hits a human at 200mph. Thankfully, elevated heart rate aside, he was fine.

Alonso had clambered up the order and was, I think, 5^th at this stage. Whilst Vettel hadn’t made much progress, he steadily rose throughout the entire race, although was never in touching distance of the top four.

Verstappen closed up behind Kvyat. The Russian drove fantastically to keep the younger man in the faster car (formerly his) behind him, to Verstappen’s consternation and the delight of neutral spectators. Later, with differing tyres, they were in a similar position but Verstappen was able to sweep past. Nice to see skilful driving from Kvyat again.

Rosberg maintained a few seconds’ gap to Ricciardo but wasn’t able to scamper off. Both he and Hamilton had to manage a brake issue, the Briton struggling more, perhaps due to lack of preparatory time when a hydraulics issue cut short his second practice. Towards the latter third of the race, Raikkonen, who has looked good all weekend, closed the gap to Hamilton and then pounced when the Briton made a mistake and ran wide.

At this stage, perhaps fifteen laps left, all the top four were on soft tyres. Mercedes then embarked on a strategy that came within half a lap of being Pyrrhic.

They told Hamilton they were switching to Plan B. Given Plan A was a two-stop, this meant he could give the engine full power, take the last life out of the tyres, close up to Raikkonen, then pit again. This he did, Raikkonen pitted the following lap but Hamilton had regained 3^rd.

Then Ricciardo pitted. The two cars behind doing so gave him the opportunity, but Rosberg lacked the time due to the undercut, and alone of the top four had to stay out on the soft tyre he’d put on lap 32 or so (of 61).

The Aussie was consistently two and a half seconds a lap faster than Rosberg, and closing rapidly. Meanwhile, Hamilton was getting left behind, and Vettel had, very impressively, gotten himself all the way up to 5^th. A fantastic recovery drive.

Traffic loomed. A couple of laps stole the best remaining life from Ricciardo’s tyres, and at the start of the final lap he was circa two seconds behind Rosberg. He closed up, and at the line was within half a second. One more lap would’ve done it.

But it’s a 61 lap race. And Rosberg drove perfectly throughout, despite substantial pressure and managing brakes constantly in danger of overheating.

Great performances from the top two. Hamilton will be somewhat pleased to regain 3^rd but will not be happy to have been out-driven all weekend. Rosberg’s had three wins in a row now.

Raikkonen may be a bit miffed to finish 4^th, but he and Vettel (5^th) did score substantial points, losing 4 net to Red Bull on a circuit that could easily have seen two Red Bulls on the podium.

Verstappen ended up 6^th, and Alonso 7^th. Button retired, but to be best outside the top three teams is nothing to be sniffed at. Pretty good for McLaren.

Force India had an odd race. Hulkenberg’s race lasted about three seconds, but Perez rose from 18^th to 8^th. Strong drive from the Mexican. Kvyat was 9^th. Good to see the Russian get some points, and Magnussen scored a rare point for Renault.

Gutierrez was 11^th, yet again. Massa was 12^th, so a pretty dreadful weekend for both Haas and Williams.

I have to admit to being a little surprised the evens hedge on Ricciardo was not matched, given there were two potential times his odds must have dived (when it was unclear if Rosberg would pit and, if he did, whether he would be ahead or behind; and when Ricciardo was catching him very rapidly). However, the closeness of the bet does at least mean it was reasonable.

Drivers’:

Rosberg 273

Hamilton 265

With that result, Rosberg retakes the lead. Since the summer break, the German hasn’t really put a foot wrong. He had a very strong end to the last season, although that was with little pressure as Hamilton had a huge lead. If Rosberg performs similarly well this year, he’ll take the title. There are six races left.

This is going to be very close. Unless there’s a drastic change (DNFs for one and wins for the other) this may well go down to the final race.

Constructors’:

Mercedes 538

Red Bull 316

Ferrari 301

Force India 112

Williams 111

McLaren 54

Toro Rosso 47

Haas 28

Renault 7

Manor 1

Sauber 0

Overall, Ferrari wouldn’t be displeased to lose just a few points to Red Bull, given the circuit’s nature. The Prancing Horse might yet return to 2^nd. And it’s good to see Raikkonen racing well. As for Red Bull, they must be disappointed that a very strong race by Ricciardo didn’t end up with a last lap overtake, and that Verstappen’s bad start cost them quite a few points.

Force India retake 4^th place from Williams. That’s a tasty battle. I suspect Force India will win it, but it’s very close.

Toro Rosso missed an opportunity to, if not reclaim 6^th from McLaren, at least narrow the gap. Instead, Alonso’s result extended McLaren’s advantage.

Remember the start of the year? Grosjean finished 6^th in Australia, I think. The Haas looks bloody awful. Hopefully they can improve it for next year.

In a fortnight, the F1 circus moves on to Malaysia (odd time of year, but apparently the bigwigs decided holding it in monsoon season wasn’t terribly clever). Keep an eye on the weather and No Safety Car odds (wide track, much run-off).

Morris Dancer