Japan: pre-qualifying 2016
Due to the earliness of
all the sessions, I’m posting the pre-qualifying piece today rather
than Saturday. Rain had been forecast for qualifying but now seems to
be drifting off (of course, if forecasts are wrong both or one of
qualifying and the race could still be affected, making predicting
outcomes trickier).
Worth noting all
Mercedes engines will be running in a lower mode than its best,
following Hamilton’s flaming disaster last time out. This will
obviously impact performance, but I expect it to be marginal, rather
than dramatic.
Also, remember Vettel
has a three place grid penalty for his ill-judged first lap in
Malaysia.
In first practice
Rosberg was two-tenths up on Hamilton, who was nearly a second faster
than Vettel, with Raikkonen next. The Ferraris were followed by
Ricciardo and Verstappen, with Hulkenberg, Perez, Alonso and Bottas
rounding out the top 10.
Second practice again
had Rosberg fastest over Hamilton, but this time by less than a
tenth. Raikkonen was a couple of tenths down the road, with
Verstappen half a second further back. Vettel, Perez, Hulkenberg,
Alonso, Bottas and Sainz finished off the top 10.
At this stage, the
Force Indias and Alonso look to be the best outside the big three
teams. Word is the Red Bull looks tasty on race pace but seems
outmatched (though practice is not a flawless guide) for qualifying
by the Ferrari.
Ahead of qualifying a
few potential bets came to mind:
Hulkenberg to reach Q3
Alonso to reach Q3
Rosberg pole
Hulkenberg and Alonso
are just 1.55 and 1.4 respectively to make Q3. Whilst I think both
have a great chance and I’d be unsurprised if both did it, with the
potential for wet weather and Alonso’s less than stellar mechanical
reliability this year, both are too short to tempt.
Rosberg is just 2.1 for
pole, same as Hamilton. Not going for it.
Qualifying starts at
7am, and the race at 6am. Neither is live on Channel 4, so best of
luck avoiding spoilers if you’re waiting for the highlights
(there’s radio for those without Sky, of course, but that’s
clearly inferior).
Morris Dancer
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