Japan: pre-qualifying 2016

Due to the earliness of all the sessions, I’m posting the pre-qualifying piece today rather than Saturday. Rain had been forecast for qualifying but now seems to be drifting off (of course, if forecasts are wrong both or one of qualifying and the race could still be affected, making predicting outcomes trickier).

Worth noting all Mercedes engines will be running in a lower mode than its best, following Hamilton’s flaming disaster last time out. This will obviously impact performance, but I expect it to be marginal, rather than dramatic.

Also, remember Vettel has a three place grid penalty for his ill-judged first lap in Malaysia.

In first practice Rosberg was two-tenths up on Hamilton, who was nearly a second faster than Vettel, with Raikkonen next. The Ferraris were followed by Ricciardo and Verstappen, with Hulkenberg, Perez, Alonso and Bottas rounding out the top 10.

Second practice again had Rosberg fastest over Hamilton, but this time by less than a tenth. Raikkonen was a couple of tenths down the road, with Verstappen half a second further back. Vettel, Perez, Hulkenberg, Alonso, Bottas and Sainz finished off the top 10.

At this stage, the Force Indias and Alonso look to be the best outside the big three teams. Word is the Red Bull looks tasty on race pace but seems outmatched (though practice is not a flawless guide) for qualifying by the Ferrari.

Ahead of qualifying a few potential bets came to mind:
Hulkenberg to reach Q3
Alonso to reach Q3
Rosberg pole

Hulkenberg and Alonso are just 1.55 and 1.4 respectively to make Q3. Whilst I think both have a great chance and I’d be unsurprised if both did it, with the potential for wet weather and Alonso’s less than stellar mechanical reliability this year, both are too short to tempt.

Rosberg is just 2.1 for pole, same as Hamilton. Not going for it.

Qualifying starts at 7am, and the race at 6am. Neither is live on Channel 4, so best of luck avoiding spoilers if you’re waiting for the highlights (there’s radio for those without Sky, of course, but that’s clearly inferior).


Morris Dancer

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