Malaysia: post-race analysis 2016

A cracking race, with drama from the first lap almost to the last. Strategic cunning, mishap, great drives and grave misfortune. And the bet even came off, despite three or four Virtual Safety Cars.

At the instigation of the formation lap, Massa discovered his throttle was being disobedient and had to be wheeled into the pits. Whilst Williams managed to get his car working, it meant a pit lane start in last rather than a 10th place start.

Off the line it seemed to be more or less formation flying. But Vettel miscalculated into the first corner. He tagged Rosberg and spun his compatriot around, and, in the process, ruined his own left front suspension, ending his race. Clumsy, and not for the first time this year from Vettel. He was out, and Rosberg was last (a Virtual Safety Car came out here, neutralising the race for a couple of laps). At the end of lap 1 Alonso had leapt up to 12th and Perez had risen to around 3rd.

Several cars took advantage of the VSC to pit and lose relatively less time (because the field was moving more slowly than it would normally), including Rosberg.

Meanwhile, Massa’s misfortune continued unabated as he almost immediately got a front puncture on his hard tyres and required an extra pit stop.

Verstappen, just ahead of Raikkonen (Hamilton leading, Ricciardo 2nd) pitted early, shoved on some soft tyres and was racing around rapidly. However, as the hard tyre was mandatory the Dutchman was guaranteed to require another pit stop. When Hamilton and then Ricciardo pitted for hard tyres with about 35 laps to go, it was unclear whether they’d be able to make it to the end. Verstappen pitted a few laps later for hard tyres.

Raikkonen had slid back a bit, unable to keep up with Hamilton or the Red Bulls. Rosberg had risen swiftly through the field, and was now 5th, right behind the Finn.

Magnussen suffered some damage on lap 1 and, some time later, was retired as his pace was woeful. Grosjean retired when his rear brakes didn’t work and a corner became a straight (another VSC came out here). The other Haas of Gutierrez was left with three wheels after one of them went walkies after a pit stop.

At this stage the biggest questions were whether Rosberg could pass Raikkonen and if team orders would be used at Red Bull. Verstappen had caught Ricciardo (running 2-3 at this point) and was clearly faster, yet the Aussie fended off the talented Dutchman with some fantastic driving. It was reminiscent of Hamilton and Rosberg in Bahrain 2014.

And then Hamilton’s engine burst into flames, with 15 laps or so to go.

The Briton lamented his fate over the radio and peeled off the track. Both the Red Bulls pitted. Despite his best efforts, Verstappen was unable to get close enough to attempt a pass. They were both racing properly, although with a couple of laps to go Verstappen appeared to ease off.

Ricciardo scored a first win of the year and, after the Spanish strategy not going his way and Monaco tyres going missing, it must have been especially sweet. He dedicated his triumph to the late Jules Bianchi.

A little way down the road, Rosberg pulled a dodgems move to get past Raikkonen. The stewards took a dim view and handed the German a 10s time penalty for causing a collision, but as Rosberg finished more than that ahead of Raikkonen he retained 3rd.

Raikkonen got 4th which, I think, was the most he could’ve achieved given his car. The Ferrari just wasn’t a match for either Red Bull or Mercedes, which must be concerning. In relative terms they’ve gone backwards since last year. Vettel also needs to calm down a bit.

Bottas ended up 5th and Massa 13th. Can’t blame Massa for that, as he had two slices of horrendous misfortune (pit lane start and then a puncture on a new set of tyres). Good from Bottas to finish ahead of both Force Indias (although the latter team outscored Williams overall).

Perez was 6th and Hulkenberg 8th, two more solid points finishes from a very good driver pairing (although rumours circulate Hulkenberg might be sought by Renault, and perhaps Perez by Haas).

Alonso’s 7th is quite fantastic given he started last (well, last but one as Massa started from the pit lane). It's also a testament to the improving pace of the McLaren. Button’s 9th means he scores in his 300th race start and that McLaren gets a nice double points finish. Still a long way to go, but progress is being made.

Palmer’s 10th is the first point he scores in F1, and nice to see after he threw away a comparable finish (Hungary, I think) with a spin. That said, I still think he’ll be thrown overboard for next season.

So, Rosberg’s race swung from total disaster to actually extending his title lead by a hefty margin. Here’s how things stand:
Rosberg 288
Hamilton 265

A 23 point gap with five races to go is not yet comfortable. Much better than Rosberg could’ve hoped for after lap 1 (or even before qualifying) but if Rosberg’s engine blows up at the next race and Hamilton wins, that becomes a 2 point Hamilton lead. However, I’ve got to say Rosberg is the favourite for the title right now.

Constructors:
Mercedes 553
Red Bull 359
Ferrari 313
Force India 124
Williams 121
McLaren 62
Toro Rosso 47
Haas 28
Renault 8
Manor 1
Sauber 0

I think all those places will stay as they are. McLaren have further cemented their 6th position, and Force India have very slightly increased their lead over Williams. It’ll be very tight between those teams, but I suspect Force India will bag 4th.

I switch off after the racing finishes but do check to see if anything interesting emerges. Hamilton’s post-race comments about engine failures only happening to him and the situation not sitting right with him may be indicative that the psychological pressure is getting to him. After all, a driver can alter his style or learn new circuits and rely on his skill and judgement to improve performance, but nobody can defend against his engine exploding. It is undeniable that Hamilton has had atrocious luck this year, and fought back brilliantly to turn a deficit into a small lead, only to lose it again and have the deficit extended by sheer misfortune.

It's worth recalling that a McLaren reliability failure (one, after a spate) helped persuade Hamilton to jump ship. I'm not suggesting he'll leave Mercedes, just that poor reliability might be the thing he finds hardest to handle.

Next weekend, we’re in Japan at the rather good Suzuka circuit. Hamilton will be hoping to bounce back rapidly, and he has an excellent record at the track. If Rosberg extends his lead again, things will start looking ominous indeed for Hamilton, and very promising for the German.


Morris Dancer

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