Malaysia: pre-race 2016
In third practice
Hamilton looked to have the whip hand, with Red Bull closer to
Ferrari than I expected.
The first session of
qualifying was very much as you might expect. Alonso, now with a 45
place grid penalty, did the bare minimum, and the Manors, Saubers and
Palmer also left at this stage.
There weren’t many
surprises in Q2 either. The biggest was that Button escaped to Q3 and
Bottas (starting 11th) did not. Behind the Finn are the
Haas drivers, Magnussen and the Toro Rossos.
In Q3 things looked a
bit odd after the first runs. Rosberg was only fastest for the third
row, a mile behind his pole-sitting team mate, the Red Bulls and, I
think, a Ferrari. On the second run, however, normal service was
resumed and we have another Hamilton-Rosberg front row. Verstappen
and Ricciardo are next and, reportedly, the Red Bull has been rather
quick on the long runs.
Must say I’m
surprised Ferrari are only on the third row. Whilst the gap to
Ricciardo (for Vettel) is just a tenth of a second, it’s still a
shade disappointing for the Prancing Horse.
Punching above their
weight on the fourth row are the two Force Indias, with Perez ahead
of Hulkenberg. Tasty grid slots for the team battling with Williams.
Button did well to get 9th, whilst Massa could manage only
10th.
The weather forecast
has a small chance of rain, but likely to be dry.
I had been hoping for
rain, as I think some interesting Red Bull, Hulkenberg and Button
bets could’ve been opened up by soggy conditions (it also would’ve
drastically hampered Rosberg, I think).
Bets that sprang to
mind:
Rosberg to lead lap 1
Ricciardo podium
No Safety Car
Rosberg is 3.25 to lead
the first lap. Hmm. Not value. There’s the potential for the Red
Bulls to start very well, Hamilton to do ok or Rosberg to cock it up.
Ricciardo’s just 2.2
for a podium. Not remotely tempting.
No Safety Car is 2.25.
Whilst not super tasty, with the extra gravel traps, it is worth
considering.
As is now traditional,
I then perused the markets hoping to find some ludicrous value.
Here’s what caught my eye, to a greater or lesser extent:
Rosberg, win, 4.8
(Betfair), hedge 2.4
That’s pretty much
it. Rosberg was out of sorts in qualifying, but the Mercedes has been
very good in clear air. If he can get the jump at the start he has a
strong chance of winning and the hedge may be matched immediately.
There’s also the safety car bet.
On balance, I decided
the No Safety Car bet at 2.25 was the better value. Rosberg's been a bit off-kilter this weekend and Red Bull may be a threat.
Just the one tip: No
Safety Car, 2.25, Ladbrokes.
The race starts at 8am.
Intrigued to see how Red Bull and Force India do.
Morris Dancer
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