Mexico: pre-race 2016

Qualifying was peculiar. Appeared very close between three teams then in Q3 Ferrari’s pace fell off a cliff. There was a bit of a jumbled up grid in the end, so hopefully that’ll present some betting opportunities. Remember that there’s a very long run to the first corner. Screw up your start and you’ll be staring at a Manor’s exhaust.

Oddly, Palmer got a cracked chassis in third practice. That sort of thing happens, but he didn’t know, kept running, and was fine. However, it did mean he couldn’t partake in qualifying and therefore starts last.

Dreadful Q1 for Haas, with both cars struggling and Grosjean slowest on track. Gutierrez was 17^th (again out-qualifying his team mate), and between them were Kvyat, Nasr and Ocon. However, the Manor of Wehrlein just made it into Q2 [only five eliminated here due to Palmer not running].

Q2 went more predictably, the only slight surprise being that Perez was only 12^th, behind Alonso. Following the Mexican was Button, Magnussen, Ericsson and Wehrlein.

Now, up to this point Hamilton had maintained a pace advantage over Rosberg, but any of the top three teams looked competitive for the front row, if not pole. Also worth noting the Mercedes and Ferraris are on the soft tyre for the start, but the Red Bulls are on the supersoft. This may help them off the line, but their tyres won’t last nearly as long. (A similar approach was taken by Ricciardo last time out and was looking good until he was a bit screwed by the VSC).

Q3 was a bit different. Ferrari’s performance fell off a cliff. After the first runs Hamilton was on pole, but both Red Bulls were ahead of Rosberg. Then came Hulkenberg, then the Ferraris. On the second run, nobody really improved, except Rosberg, who managed to defy the pattern of previous qualifying laps and bested the Red Bulls to claim 2^nd on the grid. After how the rest of the hour went, I imagine he’ll be thrilled, and Hamilton mildly miffed, to line up on the front row.

The Red Bulls, on their supersofts, form up the second row, Verstappen ahead of Ricciardo. Hulkenberg was very impressive in 5^th, which I think equals his best ever qualifying performance. Leaving aside implications just for the race, that’ll likely help Force India maintain the whip hand over Williams.

After so much promise in the practice sessions and earlier parts of qualifying, 6^th and 7^th for Raikkonen and Vettel respectively was pretty damned poor. The only positive (besides the potential for the soft tyre they start on to be an advantage, though Vettel only has his starting set which may hamper him in the race) is that Vettel didn’t get a penalty for a blatant block, because it wasn’t investigated by the race steward (this week it’s Stevie Wonder).

Bottas and Massa are next up, with Sainz performing well to get into Q3 at all (starting 10^th).

My initial betting thoughts were:

Hulkenberg podium

First lap leader, either Red Bull, Hulkenberg

Red Bull top score

Both Red Bull drivers podium

Perez top 6

Hulkenberg has never had a podium in F1. He was all but guaranteed one, and had a good shot at the win, in Brazil one year (maybe 2012) but got a penalty for sliding in the wet and colliding with Hamilton. He’s a very good driver, though. Odds on a podium are 15 (17.5 with Betfair). If the Red Bull supersoft gambit fails, Hulkenberg’s next in line, and he won’t be easy to pass. I think this is worth considering.

The Red Bulls are 5.5 and 10 (Verstappen and Ricciardo respectively) to lead lap 1. Hulkenberg is 101. From 5^th. Same odds as Vettel in 7^th, longer than the 81 for Raikkonen in 6^th. Ok, it’s damned unlikely. But 100/1 unlikely? Even if I don’t put a full stake on this, I may put down a couple of pounds.

Red Bull are 4.5 to top score. This happens in two conceivable ways. Either they have a winning car with the other chap 5^th (shared with Mercedes if the latter are 2-3 and Red Bull are 1-6) or one of the Mercedes fails to finish and Red Bull have a decent result. Their race pace has been good all weekend and they were very close to Mercedes in qualifying which is not always the case. The supersoft strategem could go either way. I think this is pretty tempting.

Red Bull are 3.4 for a double podium. I think I’d prefer the top score bet. If they both beat one of the Mercedes then a Red Bull may win. If a Mercedes gets a DNF then this wins, but so would top scoring. So, personally I’d prefer the top score bet.

Perez is 2.62 for a top 6 finish. He’s a good driver in a good car but he starts 12^th. Whilst a credible possibility, the odds look too tight given where he starts.

So, unusually rather a lot of tempting bets. I decided to give the markets a perusal anyway, just in case something was comically mispriced (I did like the No Safety Car in Hungary odds).

Something I should’ve thought of was the Haas cars not to be classified. As well as midfield shenanigans off the line, there’s scope for their brakes to fail, and they seem to lack grip. Gutierrez is 3.75, Grosjean 4. [Haas are planning to switch from Brembo to Carbon Industries as their brake supplier in Brazil. Brembo are reportedly pleased, as it’ll show the problem is with the car, not their brakes, which they supply to other F1 teams without problems].

Verstappen/Ricciardo are each 11 to win. (Rosberg is 3.75, Hamilton 1.44). A worthy alternative to the top score bet if you’re optimistic about Red Bull’s prospects.

Those are the potential bets that leapt out from idle browsing. As you can see, there’s actually rather a lot to consider.

The lead lap 1 market is interesting. If Hamilton screws up the start or the Red Bulls get an advantage from the supersofts, there’s the possibility they’ll be passed on one of the hefty straights (ie they’ll lead into turn 1 but not at the white line). If Rosberg leads into turn 1 he won’t have that problem, and nor will Hulkenberg. Going from 5^th to 1^st is a big ask. However, the run to the first corner is very long. A chap who hooks it up, especially if the frontrunners cock it up, could make up many places. Of these, Hulkenberg is the best value even though it’s unlikely to happen. He’s the same odds as the chap starting behind him. The chances of it happening are long but I don’t think they’re 100/1. So, odd and unlikely to win as this is, I’m backing Hulkenberg to lead lap 1 at 101. (There’s also 65 for Any Other Driver [excluding the top four] to lead lap 1 on Betfair if you want a collective Hulkenberg/Ferrari bet).

On reflection I think the varying strategy helps Red Bull. They’re going to find it hard passing on track due to their strength being in the twisty bits, but have good race pace and were very close even in qualifying. They’re also (last race notwithstanding) more reliable. I’m backing them at 4.5 to top score.

And, lastly, I’m splitting one stake between the two Haas drivers (3.75 for Gutierrez and 4 for Grosjean) to not be classified. They don’t have much grip and their brakes keep failing.

In all, I’d say those are two bets that have a pretty good chance of coming off, and one that doesn’t but is too long and therefore value.

In sum:

Hulkenberg, lead lap 1, 101

Red Bull, top score, 4.5

Gutierrez 3.75, Grosjean 4, not to be classified (one stake split evenly between the two)

I’ve tried to avoid three or more tips per race as, this season, that’s mostly led to bad results, but I know from experience it’s worse to feel pretty good about something then not back it because it might not happen. After all, it’s gambling, not investment.

The race starts at 7pm. The post-race analysis will be up tomorrow.

Morris Dancer