United States: post-race analysis 2016
It’s the morning
after the night before. As usual, the Circuit of the Americas
produced a very entertaining. It was neither profitable nor
detrimental to finances, though, as the evens No Safety Car tip came
off, but Hamilton selfishly hogged first place on the first lap.
[Apologies for any slight errors in the order things happened, I tend
to write race reports from memory].
Off the line, it seemed
to be formation flying, but Rosberg couldn’t quite keep ahead of
Ricciardo, and the Aussie slipped into 2nd. Further down
the field, there was contact aplenty. Bunching of the field at the
wide first corner meant Bottas and Hulkenberg made contact. The
German was out and the Finn had a puncture. To make matters worse
for Force India, Perez had contact with Kvyat, and the Mexican ended
up more or less last, facing the wrong way, but was able to get going
(Kvyat ended up with a 10s penalty).
Button, by contrast,
had a flyer, rising from 19th to 11th on lap 1.
Meanwhile at the sharp
end it was surprisingly close. The top four (Verstappen 4th)
were all covered by a single camera shot, and Raikkonen was close
behind too.
At the first round of
pit stops Rosberg jumped a different way to everyone else. He pitted
quite early to stop Raikkonen’s undercut getting the better of him,
and slotted on the medium tyres. These were working really rather
well, and he matched Hamilton’s pace when the Briton pitted for
fresh softs. Ricciardo retained 2nd, but his soft tyres
meant that Rosberg would be able to run longer.
A short way back,
Vettel had been catching the racy Raikkonen. No team orders occurred,
unless you count bringing Raikkonen in for fresh tyres.
Verstappen was getting
very close to Rosberg, who found himself the meat in a Red Bull
sandwich, the three cars covered by under 2s. For a short time it was
close and then the gaps opened up just a little (roughly a second and
a half each way).
Ricciardo pitted, then
so did Verstappen. The Dutchman surprised his team [somehow he
thought they’d called him in], who ran out and actually did a good
job of slamming on some medium tyres despite being astonished to see
him. However, woe was to occur. Halfway round the next lap his engine
lost almost all power. He kept trundling around, passing marshal
stations (at the team’s behest) until they ordered him to cross a
gravel trap and park the car by a marshal post. However, they were
unable to push the car through the gap (sounds like the wheels
locked) so a Virtual Safety Car emerged.
This was ruinous for
Ricciardo. The timing allowed both Mercedes to pit, effectively
saving 10s on a pit stop, which put Rosberg easily ahead of the
Aussie. I think it near certain Ricciardo would’ve been ahead of
Rosberg after the final stops but for this, although the Mercedes did
have better pace so he might have been passed anyway. But, we’ll
never know.
Raikkonen suffered
misfortune too. On the final stop he had a cross-threaded wheel nut
and was ordered to stop immediately after leaving the pit lane. This
probably stopped him getting a 5th, or perhaps a 4th.
There was some cracking
action from 5th to 7th. Sainz, on ageing soft
tyres, was pursued by Massa and Alonso, both on mediums. The wily
young Spaniard was doing a great job keeping Massa behind him. The
Brazilian overcooked things and locked up (fortunately a corner,
otherwise he would’ve ploughed into Sainz’s rear). However, this
allowed Alonso get a little bit nearer. Massa left the door open at a
later corner, and Alonso, from some way back, dove down the inside
and passed his former team mate in a wheel-banging manoeuvre. This
appeared to give Massa a puncture, necessitating a very late pit
stop.
Alonso then set about
chasing down Sainz. On the final lap [I think] he pulled off another
audacious/obnoxious manoeuvre to pass his younger compatriot.
After all that, it was
another Mercedes 1-2, although Red Bull were closer on pace (if not
fortune) than has been the case at some other circuits. Mexico, being
quite slow and twisty (I think, need to check) could be rather
splendid for the Red Bulls.
Hamilton narrows the
gap from 33 to 26 points, but it’s still advantage Rosberg.
Ricciardo gets a
well-deserved podium. Shame for Verstappen but these things happen.
Vettel was in a race of one, effectively. Not fast enough to fight
for a podium, but a day and a half ahead of Alonso.
The Spaniards had a
lovely day, Alonso 5th, Sainz 6th. It’s worth
noting both benefited from substantial luck due to retirements and
misfortune for those ahead of them (Verstappen, Raikkonen, Hulkenberg
retired, Bottas and Perez suffered accidents that put them further
down the order). But, opportunities are there to be seized. As an
aside, this is terrible for my spread betting suggestion on Alonso,
and a useful result as it’s indicative of how quickly a low points
sell can turn wonky with one lucky result. That said, driver of the
day would probably be between these two chaps (I’d give it to
Sainz).
Next was Massa, despite
his late puncture. Overall a good day for Williams in their contest
with Force India, but it could’ve been better. Perez was right
behind Massa, a strong recovery after a dreadful first lap. So, the
gap narrows, but only by a couple of points.
Button and Grosjean got
the last points. So, another double points finish for McLaren, and
another point for Haas (Gutierrez had to retire due to his brakes, I
believe).
So, Rosberg’s lead
over Hamilton, with three races to go, is now 26 points. The next
races are Mexico, Brazil and Abu Dhabi. For his own peace of mind,
Rosberg could do with beating Hamilton at the next race. I still
think Rosberg’s got the whip hand. If you believe Hamilton can yet
win, he’s 3.75 on Ladbrokes. However, if Rosberg is 2nd
at two races and 3rd at another and Hamilton wins all
three, Rosberg still takes the title. If Rosberg wins the next race,
Hamilton 2nd, it would take a near miracle for Hamilton to
retain his crown.
To be honest, I hope
Rosberg wins, for the sake of variety, if nothing else. And for those
who say it’d be undeserved due to Hamilton’s technical woes, I
would remind them of Singapore (where Rosberg out-drove Hamilton all
weekend) and 2014, Abu Dhabi. There, Rosberg suffered a reliability
failure that put him out of the points. If Hamilton had suffered that
problem instead, Rosberg would’ve won that title.
Constructors’:
Red Bull 400
Ferrari 347
Force India 138
Williams 130
I don’t think Ferrari
can close that gap. The number wouldn’t be insurmountable but right
now Red Bull has a performance advantage, particularly given the
natures of upcoming tracks. If we were off to Monza, it’d be a
different story. The 8 point Force India lead is pretty tenuous.
However, if memory serves Perez is good at Mexico and Abu Dhabi, and
Hulkenberg is very good around Interlagos (especially in the wet).
Plus the Force India is better at the twisty stuff. I expected this
lead to grow, but a particularly turbulent race could, perhaps, see
it go the other way.
Next week we’re off
to Mexico. Only had the one race there before, so limited information
to go on. I might go back and re-read last year’s rambling.
A fortnight after that
we’re in Brazil (thankfully rather further east, not a fan of late
starts) and then two weeks later the season finale is in Abu Dhabi.
Morris Dancer
A comfortable winner for me with Alonso finishing well within the points .... in a very creditable fifth place in fact with Betfair paying surprisingly generous odds of evens.
ReplyDeleteThe great thing with Alono is that you're guaranteed maximum effort every time. He could easily have relaxed in 7th place a few laps before the end, but that wasn't good enough for him, no siree. He's positively wasted at McLaren, but with the retiring Button also finishing in the top 10 perhaps, perhaps the woeful team have at last turned the corner in time to mount some sort of challenge next year.
Congrats. If I'd gone for my 'too short' tips, 2/3 would've come off but the odds would've been so short I think I'd be ahead about £1 (although that's £1 better than I actually managed).
DeleteThis year's irrelevant, really. McLaren's got good aero thanks to Prodromou[sp] and if Honda can sort out the engine next year (big if) I can see them beating Ferrari and potentially challenging for the title. Odds against, of course, but a credible possibility.
Alonso's atrocious at picking teams, almost as unlucky as Raikkonen was at McLaren.