United States: pre-qualifying 2016

Hulkenberg is off to Renault. Makes Palmer’s situation look shakier than an octogenarian tightrope walker, and Magnussen’s not safe either (rumour has it Renault also want Bottas). The move also opens up a seat at Force India, with some speculating Wehrlein or Ocon could get the gig.

In the short term this may mean Hulkenberg not scoring as much but I think long-term it’s a wise risk to take. Force India really do punch above their weight but without a cash injection it’s hard to see them competing regularly for wins. In a couple of years, especially with new rules changes, Renault might.

In other intriguing news, machinations may be afoot at McLaren. Ron Dennis’ contract is up soon and may not be renewed due to shareholders. Of which there are three. One is him (25%), another is the Bahraini Royal Family (50%) and Mansour Ojjeh has the final 25%. It’s believed the latter two are intended not to renew the contract.

Excitingly, this could pave a way back for McLaren nice chap Martin Whitmarsh or, even better, Ross Brawn (who recently wrote in a book to be out for Christmas* that he left Mercedes because he couldn’t trust Wolff and Lauda). Another, more tedious, possibility would be Justin King getting the gig.

*Importantly, my own book Kingdom Asunder should be out before Christmas. And I need the money more, so buy mine first.

In first practice, Hamilton led Rosberg by three-tenths, with Verstappen over a second a half down the road. Raikkonen, Hulkenberg and Bottas were next, with Ricciardo, Vettel, Kvyat and Sainz rounding out the top 10.

In second practice, things were rather tighter. Rosberg was two-tenths faster than Ricciardo, with Hamilton next up. Vettel was half a second back, ahead of Verstappen, with Hulkenberg, Perez, Button, Alonso and Raikkonen next.

At this stage, the Red Bull (especially on race pace) appears close to the Mercedes. If they qualify well or a Silver Arrow starts badly, then this could bode very well for the Red Bull. Ferrari seem very much in third place.

Worth also recalling that Hamilton has won three of the last four races here. If he cannot narrow the gap to his team mate here, of all places, things will look ominous for his title prospects.

Ahead of third practice, Mercedes broke curfew to work on Hamilton’s car, replacing the fuel system which had a minor irregularity.

Verstappen was fastest in third practice, three-tenths up on Ricciardo. Raikkonen was next, with Hamilton and Rosberg next up. Vettel, Hulkenberg, Bottas, Button and Alonso rounded out the top 10.

Rosberg didn’t set a qualifying simulation run, though. He did most of a lap (was slower than Verstappen in the first sector, purple in the second, but a little behind overall) before pitting. Hamilton was slightly held up by Nasr, who was also on a fast lap [prompted a radio comment to the pits: ‘really poor timing guys’]. So neither Silver Arrow set a representative lap time.

The gap between Hamilton and Verstappen (seven-tenths) is more or less the difference between the soft and supersoft tyres (the other being the medium). So... might we be in for a surprise?

The only potential bet of interest is a four-way split, (or two each way bets), backing Verstappen and Ricciardo to win qualifying each way at 13 (third the odds for a top 2 finish). I do think Red Bull are looking strong for the race but Mercedes has maintained a very powerful grip on qualifying all year. There’s also the small but plausible possibility that Hamilton’s engine might explode.

On balance, I decided against the bet. Too much split. And, if all runs normally, I still expect a Mercedes 1-2.

Qualifying is at 7pm and the race is at 8pm.

The pre-race piece will likely be tomorrow morning.

Morris Dancer