Abu Dhabi: pre-race 2016
Well, qualifying ran
pretty much to form with Hamilton easily on pole and Rosberg
alongside him. The one real surprise was that the Red Bulls both went
for the supersoft in Q2, which means they start on the slightly more
durable tyre. The rest of the top 10 are on the ultrasofts.
Both Saubers and Toro
Rossos (who are having a dreadful weekend so far) exited in Q1, as
did Ocon and Magnussen.
Both Haas drivers
failed to reach Q3, and were joined in the departure lounge of Q2 by
Wehrlein (slowest in the session), Palmer, Button and Bottas (the
last two behind ahead of the Haas).
Alas, Q3 was a bit
predictable. Hamilton had daylight between him and Rosberg, a yawning
three-tenth gap. That said, Rosberg was over half a second faster
than Ricciardo. Raikkonen and Vettel split the Red Bulls (who, alone
of the top 10, start on the supersoft rather than ultrasoft). After
6th-placed Verstappen, Hulkenberg leads Perez, and it
turns out Alonso is faster than Massa, the pair making up row five.
It can be tricky to
pass in Abu Dhabi. There’s a great big straight but that’s only
an advantage if you’ve got roughly equal power and can get close
enough. A car like the Red Bull will have great pace but it’s from
the twisty bits so passing will be trickier.
It’s also worth
considering how the supersoft gambit might play out. There are two
potential advantages. Either one fewer pit stop is needed (giving Red
Bull track position), or they might be able to go longer, enjoying a
performance advantage whilst their rivals are on the soft tyre. Of
course, neither may be true.
There tend not to be
many retirements or a great shuffle from grid to flag, and there have
been just two races from the seven to date which saw a safety car.
So, potential bets that
sprung to mind:
Ricciardo win each way
Perez top 6
Few retirements
No Safety car
Ricciardo podium
Ricciardo is 15 to win
each way (third the odds for top 2). That’s intriguing, especially
if a bad start [though these haven’t happened for several races
now], strategic woe or mechanical mishap occurs. Can he do it on pure
pace, without relying on misfortune ahead of him? And are the
Mercedes likely to collide? Difficult to say.
Perez is evens for top
6. Whilst he’s good at keeping the tyres going, and has a solid
car, the odds are a little mean.
There’s 1.83 on
Ladbrokes for over 18.5 drivers to finish. In the last two races at
the circuit there have been 1 and 3 retirements. If either were
matched, that would make the bet a winner. I’m pretty confident
this will occur but the odds aren’t super.
No Safety Car is 1.8.
Again, the odds look wrong to me. This is quite appealing. I think
it’d take some misfortune for this to happen.
Ricciardo is 1.66 for a
podium. Interesting to compare that against his win (each way) odds.
Whilst eminently possible, I’d sooner go for the win bet, if I go
for either (I think the No Safety Car and over 18.5 classified
finisher bets are both likelier, as well as having slightly longer
odds).
So a couple of low odds
tempters and a slightly uncertain but interesting Ricciardo bet. I
perused the markets to see if anything else appealed.
Verstappen win 23 –
longer odds than Ricciardo but he starts 6th. He’s also
been a bit clunky at Monaco (different circuit and he’s fine at
Singapore, but it’s still a potential problem).
Raikkonen/Vettel,
winner without Mercedes 5 each way – if the Red Bull gambit with
tyres doesn’t work, Ferrari are next up. And if it does, one of
them may still finish ahead of a Red Bull anyway. Odds aren’t
enormous, however, and the gain off the start (according to Christian
Horner) of the ultrasoft over supersoft is less than half a yard.
Rosberg win 5.9
(Betfair) – I do think Hamilton’s a hot favourite to win but
there’s only two drivers in it, barring mishap. Is 5.9 too long for
Rosberg? Hamilton’s had the beating of him for several races and
has looked better this weekend. Plus, Rosberg knows a podium is
enough. That said, 5.9 may be too long.
Of all those mentioned
so far, the Ricciardo Win each way, Raikkonen/Vettel Winner Without
Mercedes each way, No Safety Car and Over 18.5 Classified Finishers
markets look most tempting to me.
That’s rather too
many to bet on all at once.
The two short odds bet
(No Safety Car and Over 18.5 Classified Finishers) seem quite closely
related. Of those, No Safety Car is my preferred. Also, you have to
go back to Italy (September) for the last time Ferrari beat Red Bull.
So, that leaves the
potential for our old friend No Safety Car at 1.8 and Ricciardo at 15
to win (each way). I think the win unlikely but coming 2nd
could happen. However, Abu Dhabi’s last two podium results were
identical to the starting top 3. So, boring as it is, I’ve just
gone for No Safety Car at 1.8.
Of course, if
excitement, twists and turns and treacherous backstabbing is what you
want, then check my new fantasy novel Kingdom Asunder, which came out
two days ago.
Barnes
& Noble -
http://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/books/1125052815?ean=2940153811246
My fear is, returning
to F1, that the race may be a procession. Red Bull will probably be
the most interesting team to watch.
Morris Dancer
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