Brazil: pre-qualifying 2016

Off-track news first. To my surprise, Palmer has been confirmed as Hulkenberg’s team mate at Renault. I really did think he was a goner. Magnussen has jumped ship to Haas, so presumably Gutierrez will be off (perhaps to Sauber, if Nasr gets the vacant Force India seat).

Lance Stroll, the Canadian teenager, has been confirmed as Bottas’ team mate at Williams for next year (as widely expected).

Meanwhile, Esteban Ocon, who replaced Rio Haryanto at Manor halfway through the season, joins Force India as Perez’s team mate.

Do not underestimate the importance of the weather in determining both this race and the title. In the dry, Rosberg is looking good. If it’s very wet, Hamilton could be favourite for both.

In first practice Hamilton was fastest, a tenth ahead of Verstappen, and three-tenths up on Rosberg. Ricciardo, Bottas, Perez and Hulkenberg were next, with Massa, Vettel and Raikkonen round out the top 10.

In second practice Hamilton was a mere three-hundredths up on Rosberg, with Bottas nearly half a second down the road. Massa was next, then Ricciardo, Verstappen, Vettel, Raikkonen, Hulkenberg and Button.

Third practice was initially drizzly (and a little later), unlike hot and dry P1 and P2. So, lap times may not be wholly representative.

In third practice, Rosberg was fastest, a tenth ahead of Hamilton (NB the second flying lap was slightly faster so you may prefer to set up a hedge if you bet on pole). Vettel was a tenth further back, with Raikkonen, Verstappen and Ricciardo close behind. Bottas, Palmer, Massa and Alonso rounded out the top 10.

It probably isn’t going to rain in qualifying. I’ll check the race forecast later.

If dry, it’s likely a Mercedes duel for pole. Hulkenberg and Bottas are potential bets for Q3, odds permitting.

The odds on all that are terrible. However, something did raise my eyebrow: 2.25 for the winning margin being under 0.15s. In three of the last five years, that’s been the case. It’s also been the case with every practice session. The downside is we’re likely looking at a Mercedes duel so it only takes one of Hamilton/Rosberg to have a phenomenal/atrocious lap to screw the bet [and it relies on it being dry, but that’s quite likely].

In the end, I decided against it as the odds are too short, although I did contemplate it for a while.

My guess is it’ll be Mercedes, Red Bull, Ferrari, Force India and Williams, but we’ll see.

The pre-race piece will probably be up tomorrow morning, rather than this evening.


Morris Dancer

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