Brazil: pre-race 2016

In Q1 the Saubers were slowest, and right ahead of them were the Manors. Magnussen was 18th and the slight surprise departure was Button in 17th. He’d looked good in the hot/dry on Friday, but the colder conditions didn’t suit him at all.

In Q2, Palmer was slowest, with the Toro Rossos (suffering a bit with the 2015 Ferrari engine) just ahead. Gutierrez qualified 12th, the meat in a Williams sandwich (bit surprised both Williams left at this stage).

The final session was close. Initially, Hamilton was 0.16s ahead of Rosberg, but both men improved on the final run. Hamilton ended up one-tenth ahead of his rival, for yet another Mercedes front row.

Raikkonen was over half a second behind them, and less than a tenth ahead of Verstappen. Vettel was a hundred off the Dutchman, and Ricciardo half a tenth off Vettel. Rather close between Ferrari and Red Bull. In the dry, better tyre wear may help Ferrari, although bad luck and poor strategy could prove a problem.

Grosjean got a very impressive 7th for Haas. Coupled with Gutierrez’s 12th, it’s a good qualifying performance for the team. Whether it can be repeated in the race remains to be seen.

Hulkenberg and Perez were next up, both men ahead of both Williams, which is critical in determining who gets 4th in the Constructors’ title (worth $35m more than 5th). Alonso was 10th, a strong performance given where his team mate was.

The weather forecast is for it to be dry throughout the race. This is good for Rosberg, bad for Red Bull, Button and Hulkenberg. Helps Williams too.

Looking at the grid, my initial thoughts were:
Vettel/Raikkonen podium
Hulkenberg top 6
Lay Gutierrez points

Vettel is 3 and Raikkonen 2.62 for the podium. Of those, Vettel probably tempts me more (although Raikkonen has been driving well of late). Hmm.

Hulkenberg is 2.2 for top 6. Eminently possible but a bit short.

Gutierrez is only layable for points at 6.2. That may actually be value but there’s only a tiny sum available, so can’t be tipped.

As is traditional, I then perused the markets (mostly Ladbrokes) to see if anything leapt out at me. [NB I checked and the last two races only had two chaps fail to be classified each, so I’d avoid the Not To Be Classified market. It also makes it less likely someone down the field will rise up much].

Vettel is 26 (each way 1/3 the odds for 2nd) to win. I do think Ferrari will be better than Red Bull in the race, but this also requires him to beat his team mate and for a Mercedes to either get a DNF or have some sort of mishap.

There’s 15 at Ladbrokes for 0 retirements. At the Chinese and Japanese Grands Prix, there were no retirements. Not sure how a DNS would fit in. The last two races at Interlagos have had just two non-finishes, and last year one of those was a disqualification.

On a related note, there’s 2.2 for there to be over 18.5 finishers in the race. Barring a lap 1 disaster or comparable unpredictable woe, that looks very tempting.

On Betfair, there’s 3.15 for No Safety Car. In the last five races, I think there’s only been one safety car appearance and we now have the VSC (and it’s forecast to be dry).

Two tips:
Over 18.5 classified finishers, Ladbrokes 2.2
No Safety Car, Betfair, 3.15.

Tempted by the 15 for 0 retirements, but it’s a bit iffy (and I didn’t want to offer 3 tips, especially when they’re somewhat related).

The race starts at 4pm. The post-race piece will be tomorrow morning. And, after that, we have just one more race. The question is, will the title already have been decided?


Morris Dancer

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