A look back at 2016 and ahead to 2017
It was a bloody odd
year.
From a betting
perspective, it was my worst ever (been doing this since the latter
half of 2009) if you count only the weekend tips included in these
articles. If you count the fortuitous Verstappen tip (to win in Spain
at 250/1) it’s the best ever. I got under a third of tips correct,
but finished ahead by quite a long way.
Most of the weekend
tips being wrong were due to misjudgement. I did have some bad luck
too. The weather forecast I saw for Interlagos was 100% wrong and
buggered both my bets there. Had they come off, the result would’ve
meant a slightly red season rather than one redder than a baboon’s
backside.
That said, at the six
race weekends I offered three tips, one was properly green, one was
essentially flat, and the other four were red. It’s not great when
there’s an inversely proportional relationship between number of
bets and sound judgement, and that’s almost entirely my fault.
I may try and make an
effort to offer a few more Betfair/hedged tips. Unfortunately a few
years ago I had a great run with Ladbrokes and terrible luck with
Betfair, so the former account is in rude health and the latter is a
bit anaemic (limiting my stakes quite a bit).
Four spread-betting
suggestions were offered mid-season, as a first step towards
potentially entering those choppy waters. My suggestions were (with
confidence ratings):
Buy Bottas, low-medium,
93/99 (the price when I saw it/the price when I wrote the piece)
Sell Magnussen, medium,
11
Buy Verstappen, medium,
206
Sell Alonso, high, 53
Bottas I got entirely
wrong. That was an 8 or 14 point loss. The others were all tight.
Magnussen was 4 points to the good, Verstappen 2 points red and
Alonso 1 point red. The main misjudgement was failing to
recognise/recall Williams are often a bit pants at developing their
car through the season. On the plus side, this was my first serious
effort and most of the suggestions were very tight, with just one
being rather wrong (and not by a calamitous amount).
I imagine such things
will only be available after testing, but, for future reference,
here’s the link:
http://www.sportingindex.com/spread-betting/motor-racing/formula-1-formula-1-season/
In terms of racing,
Mercedes were slightly reeled in by Red Bull over the course of the
season. Red Bull developed well, whereas Ferrari were 2nd
fastest (but unreliable) initially, and then fell to a distinct 3rd
later on. Force India maintained their excellent in-season
development, leapfrogging Williams to get 4th.
Development potential
will be important when considering how things might go over the
course of the next season.
Looking ahead to next
year, I had planned on offering spread betting tips and dipping my
toe into the waters. Not sure if I will do that, but, if not, I shall
offer some suggestions as I did this year.
There are substantial
technical changes to the regulations, meaning both aerodynamic
changes and removing the restrictions on engine development. I think
this stands to benefit Red Bull and McLaren disproportionately. The
former has, I think, Adrian Newey returning from messing about on the
river, and the latter has Prodromou[sp] (formerly Newey’s
aerodynamic lieutenant) and the possibility of Honda delivering a
great leap forward.
Renault should also
improve, but I don’t believe they have the staff necessary, yet, to
bounce all the way into podium-land. Hulkenberg’s reportedly very
good at technical feedback, so that will aid their development,
particularly for 2018.
I think Ferrari will go
backwards. They’ve lost Allison, rumour has it Arrivabene may be
tossed overboard, and whilst the engine is good, the aerodynamic
performance this has year has been behind a few other teams.
Mercedes, obviously,
have most to lose. When you have a dominant position any change
represents a risk of losing that advantage. I don’t think they’ll
fall off a cliff, but it is possible they’ll either be very closely
matched to a rival team (or two) or clearly inferior. An intriguing
possibility follows the well-sourced rumour Hamilton actually quit
after Spain this year only to be persuaded to stay. It is possible
he’ll go walkies sooner rather than later. (Maybe a 10% chance).
Williams have been a
bit rubbish at aero recently. I think they recognise this, but would
still expect them to be a bit too slippery.
Toro Rosso have been
pretty impressive when it comes to aerodynamics. I don’t think
they’ll challenge at the sharp end, but they could have a good
season.
Haas are difficult to
read. They had a stonking start to their début season, then fell off
a performance cliff.
Manor and Sauber may
struggle a bit due to lack of cash and starting from a low base.
At the moment, the most
tempting bets for me revolve around Red Bull and McLaren (and their
drivers). Very early to bet, however.
There are some Hamilton
and Verstappen specials up on Ladbrokes, as well as early markets
available for the two 2017 titles. Perhaps most intriguing is the 17
for Hamilton to not drive for Mercedes next year. He apparently quit
after the Spanish Grand Prix, only to be persuaded to stay, and is
very unhappy his mechanics were switched to Rosberg this year. I
think Hamilton walking is likelier than the team axing him, and
whilst it’s still odds against, 17 might be a little long.
The other bets for both
chaps relate to long term things (mostly beating Schumacher’s title
and race win tallies). None of those appeal, possibly excepting
Verstappen to take next year’s title at 5.
Morris Dancer
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