Bahrain: pre-qualifying 2017

Before we get to practice, Alonso has announced he’ll be racing in the Indy 500. He’ll be replaced for Monaco, with which the aforementioned race clashes, by Jenson Button. There’s a special on Ladbrokes for Button to be top 10 there at 4. Possible, but the car is unreliable, though I thought it worth mentioning in case anyone disagreed.

Also, this marks the first full race weekend for Pascal Wehrlein, who resumes his place (that had been occupied temporarily by Antonio Giovinazzi).

I put a small sum on Red Bull for the Constructors’ at 46 about a week ago. My reasoning was that they’ve got two very good drivers, whereas the teams ahead of them have one number one driver and one chap slightly off the boil. With new regulations there’s lots of room for development which has historically been a Red Bull strength. It’s still odds against, of course, I just think 46 is far too long.

In first practice Vettel was fastest, four-tenths ahead of Ricciardo. Verstappen was half a second down the road, followed by Perez, Massa and Stroll. Ocon, Alonso, Grosjean and Hamilton rounded out the top 10.

Mercedes didn’t have any problems, they just weren’t going for fast times, probably because the daytime first and third practice sessions aren’t that much use when qualifying and the race are twilight/nocturnal affairs.

Raikkonen’s engine went kaput in this session.

In second practice, things were quite tight. Vettel was fastest again, less than half a tenth ahead of Bottas, with Ricciardo two-hundredths off the Finn and Hamilton a tenth off the Aussie. Hulkenberg was next, with Massa, Verstappen, Grosjean and Kvyat following.

Sainz’s engine (Renault, I think) also broke in a puff of blue smoke. Seems overheating is a problem for more than one team. Vettel had a reliability problem on track and his car seemed stricken, but he managed to get out later in the session.

There’s a suggestion Red Bull may have brought some upgrades (and I think Ferrari has a new front wing). With new regulations, there will be an almighty development war over the course of the season.

At this stage, it’s looking very tight at the top, with Red Bull seemingly having narrowed the gap. Ricciardo was half and almost one second faster than Verstappen. If there’s only one set of new parts, that could explain the difference (or it could just be the usual practice nonsense).

Reliability may be weaker than usual due to overheating, as well as the new regulations bedding in.

Raikkonen took on a new engine, although Ferrari are hoping they’ll be able to mend the wonky one and get it working later in the season. If things stay very tight between the top two teams this year, reliability could be the deciding factor. In that area, Mercedes seems to have a slight edge.

In the latter half of third practice, Grosjean crashed into the barriers. The Frenchman sounds to have been grumpy about his car before this as well.

Rather unexpectedly, Verstappen was fastest in third practice, a tenth ahead of Hamilton (who reportedly had a pretty scruffy lap). Vettel was almost half a second back, but just four-thousandths up on Bottas, who was three-hundredths ahead of Raikkonen. Massa was two-hundredths off the slower Finn. Ricciardo, Hulkenberg, Sainz and Kvyat round out the top 10.

After the good Red Bull pace in second practice I did contemplate backing them for this and that (both drivers were 29 to lead lap 1 and 34 to win, but only 3.5 for the podium) but decided against it. They were a long way back in the first two races. If they actually have closed the gap that would be an astonishing rate of progress, and I’ll believe it when I see it.

So, bets that sprang to mind:
Hamilton, pole
Massa, Q3
Kvyat, Q3

Hamilton was 1.72 for pole. I think he should be more like 1.4, so I’ve backed this. The third practice lap was poor but he had the pace in the car to top the timesheets and he’s both an excellent qualifier and has a car that seems to give just a little bit more than others in single lap pace. Might end up looking silly, but the odds were significantly longer than I expected.

The other two potential bets had no odds of which to speak.

So, one tip:
Hamilton, pole (Betfair), 1.72

Qualifying is at 4pm UK time. I’ll perhaps have the pre-race article done this evening, or perhaps tomorrow morning. The race is at 4pm tomorrow.


Morris Dancer

Comments

  1. I'm going for Vettel for the win. Twice a winner here, once engine failure before the race and once a bad pitstop ... so this is a great track for him

    Ocon for points based on the price, and Bottas for fastest lap.

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  2. Once again, I'm struggling to find any sort of value for this GP.
    More out of frustration than anything else, I've opted for the Hulk to finish in the top six at odds of 2.1, thereby requiring him to improve by just one place on his grid position ... not too much to ask surely?

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  3. Hey, chaps.

    I had hoped to get the pre-race article done yesterday morning, but not all the markets were up.

    I've also backed Vettel to win at 5, hedged at evens.

    Ocon for points is something I looked at but the dreadful Force India qualifying has put me off.

    I did look at Hulkenberg to be top 6 but the Renault's been a little limp. Very good qualifying, though. Hmm.

    Anyway, once I am infused with caffeine and have checked the markets I'll see about getting the pre-race article up this morning.

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