China: pre-race 2017

Well, after the doom of yesterday, qualifying went perfectly well and the race seems set for tomorrow (7am UK time), although there’s a 90% chance of rain.

In the first part of qualifying a number of chaps dropped out who ought not due to a (second consecutive) last lap cock-up by Giovinazzi, this time losing control on the final corner’s astroturf, ploughing his Sauber into the barrier and forcing those behind (including Ocon, Palmer and Grosjean) to abort their final laps. Vandoorne also failed to escape (16^th) and Verstappen qualified 19^th, but that was due to his engine software being disobedient. Giovinazzi, ironically, qualified for Q2 but was unable to compete in it due to his car not being MOT compliant.

Second qualifying ran a bit more to form. Despite impressive driving, Alonso could only manage 13^th, with Magnussen just ahead and Sainz 11^th. Ericsson was 14^th, just ahead of his team mate.

It was very tight between the top four going into the last session, and so it proved. Hamilton nabbed pole by two-tenths, ahead of Vettel who was just a thousandth up on Bottas. Raikkonen, who had looked good in Q2, was a couple of tenths further back (same two rows as Australia).

Ricciardo was 5^th but nearly a second off Ferrari. Worryingly for Red Bull, as well as Verstappen’s car being naughty, Williams have been very close to them. In the end, Massa was half a second down the road, but in the race, especially with the super long straight, Red Bull may struggle to hold onto 5^th. Hulkenberg was a short way behind Massa, and rather better than I thought Renault might do. Perez was a tenth or so further back, Kvyat a hundredth off, and Stroll reached Q3 but was half a second off the Russian and seven-tenths off his team mate. However, the Canadian was ropey in Australian qualifying but raced impressively until his car stopped working.

As mentioned above, there is a high chance of rain. Ninety percent, and it could be all race.

We also have a number of drivers out of position. Verstappen’s the stand out fellow, but there’s also Grosjean and Ocon.

Looking at that, some bets that spring to mind are:

Verstappen, podium

Toro Rosso, double points finish

Vettel, win

Ferrari, top score

Alonso, points

Verstappen is just 4.5 for a podium. Frankly, the 34 each way to win appeals more than that. In mostly dry conditions, he’d be struggling to be top 6. There needs to be a lot of rain and probably some luck too.

Toro Rosso, unlike many other midfield teams this year, have a closely matched pair and a pretty good car. I think they’re likelier than most to double score. They’re 2.75 for a double points finish, which is somewhat tempting.

Vettel is 2.5 for the win. Hmm. I do think he has a great chance. The Ferrari appears superior on race pace but the Prancing Horse had a slightly dodgy start in Australia.

Ferrari are 2.37 to top score. Given this likely requires a victory, and that Raikkonen seems relatively unlikely to get it, this doesn’t appeal.

Alonso is 2.25 for points. I think he has a credible chance but given (with limited data) McLaren has a 50% DNF rate so far this year and wet conditions are uncertain, it doesn’t appeal.

So, everything’s pretty tight. Nothing leaps out (I expected others to have the same thought as me on Verstappen, but 4.5 is too damned short). As is traditional now, I decided to have an idle browse and see if anything leapt out at me.

Verstappen, win each way, 34

Hulkenberg, top 6, 3

Perez, top 6, 4.33

Grosjean, not to be classified, 2.62

Hulkenberg, not to be classified, 3.5

Massa, not to be classified, 4.5

Ricciardo/Verstappen, not to be classified, 4.5

Lap 1 leader, Bottas, 10

Williams, double points finish, 3

Just in: Grosjean and Palmer have 5 place grid penalties for speeding after Giovinazzi crashed.

If Verstappen can rise from 17^th (promoted two places due to the aforementioned penalties for Grosjean and Palmer) to 3^rd, at 4.5, then to be 2^nd at 11 seems like relatively good value. The question is whether he can. Worth remembering the conditions at Interlagos where he drove faster than the rest by miles, was incredibly wet (so much so the safety car kept coming out). A little drizzle won’t do it. If it’s mostly dry, his car simply isn’t fast enough. May be an element of getting a bit giddy about Verstappen when it comes to the odds.

Red Bull seem to have lost some pace compared to those snapping at their heels. I think, on pace, they’re still ahead but more likely to get bottled up behind others due to being faster in twisty bits than on the straight. There’s also a reliability question mark (Ricciardo had woe in Oz, in qualifying at China a similar problem has afflicted Verstappen). So, 6^th and perhaps 5^th is up for grabs. Massa’s odds are only 1.66, and given Stroll had a reliability failure DNF last time, and I suspect the Williams (historically being weak on downforce) will suffer more than most if it is wet. Hulkenberg’s a skilful wet driver (though his car may also be fragile) and next in line. Then there’s Perez, right behind his former team mate. Hard to call, but I’d probably favour Hulkenberg. Odds of 3 aren’t stonking, though.

There are a slew of not to be classified bets up for consideration due to a combination of rubbish reliability last time, and the potential for much rain. The least reliable last time was Haas. Grosjean starts second to last, so there’s scope for immediate woe off the start line. However, 2.62 is a bit tight. Hulkenberg is a good driver but has had some first lap problems in the past (not horrendous, but enough to perhaps shorten his odds). He’s good in the wet but his team mate’s car failed last time. Massa may be the most tempting. Not only did his team mate’s car fail in Australia, but I suspect the Williams will be weaker in the rain than others, and that also increases the chance of sliding around and into a wall. Of course, this sort of bet is largely down to luck, although contributing factors can be considered (it also overlaps quite a bit, in the reverse sense, of the top 6 bet I was looking at).

Ricciardo and Verstappen at 4.5 each not to be classified are quite similar to the Massa bet.

I’m a little bit tempted to just slice one stake into little pieces and spread it across the field. I’m undecided whether that would be indicative of wisdom or immense cowardice.

Readers may recall I noted a slight pattern at the start of the Australian Grand Prix, with Ferrari a little sluggish, and Mercedes/Red Bull rather tastier (also, Stroll making up ground and Grosjean going backwards). If they general trend is repeated here, then the start, and the first few corners in China have plenty of scope for crashing and embuggerance, could be good for Bottas. Hamilton is also likely to be strongly focused on Vettel. Odds of 10 are fairly long. However, if it’s a wet start, they’ll trundle round after the safety car and Hamilton will only lose the lead if he manages to slide off the track.

Williams for a double points finish at 3 looks good, if the race is mostly dry. If it’s wetter, I think the Toro Rosso bet at 2.75 looks better.

Anyway, the uncertainty means that bets that could come off in either the wet or the dry are the ones to go for, otherwise weather could easily turn them red. Current forecast is for heavy rain around the start of the race.

So, two tips, both Ladbrokes:

Hulkenberg, top 6, 3

One stake split equally between Grosjean, Ricciard, Massa and Verstappen (2.62, and 4.5 for the latter three) not to be classified

Between the rain and reliability, I’d be quite surprised if they all finished. I was quite tempted by Verstappen each way for the win at 34 (that seems out of kilter with the 4.5 for a podium).

Anyway, the race is intriguingly poised. It starts at 7am UK time, so hopefully I’ll remember to wake up in time.

Morris Dancer