Russia: pre-qualifying 2017

Ah, Russia. A pretty rubbish track. Hard to pass on, and the compounds this weekend are the three softest yet it’s still expected to be a one stop race. However, the tightness at the top and within the midfield means we should have a competitive race. The tyre compounds are the softest (ultrasoft, supersoft and soft) which may favour Ferrari.

In another place (so it won’t count in the graphs) I tipped backing Force India for a double points finish with Ladbrokes at 3 before practice began. It has since declined to 2.5 (that’s a maybe bet). Likewise, I contemplated Vettel for pole at 4.5, but after P2 it slumped to 2.87.

Renault have brought some new parts. Apparently their strength in qualifying (or weakness in racing, as you like) is because they work the tyres too hard, knocking race pace down a peg.

On engines, the FIA has conducted analysis and now believes the top three (ie not Honda) engines are covered by 0.3s. That’s pretty damned close, and I suspect the majority of the gap is Renault behind Mercedes/Ferrari.

Last but not least, the FIA is to ban oil-burning (which, apparently, is illegal) to stop teams *cough*Mercedes*cough* [and maybe Ferrari] benefiting, particularly in qualifying. If this alters the playing field in qualifying to Ferrari’s advantage, then it could remove a key strength for the Silver Arrows.

In P1 there was a Finnish 1-2, Raikkonen half a tenth ahead of Bottas, with Hamilton half a second further back. Verstappen, Vettel and Ricciardo were next, with Perez, Massa, Stroll and Ocon rounding out the top 10.

I don’t always watch/listen to practice, but I did see much of P2, and the Ferraris looked rather impressive.

Vettel led P2, a quarter of a second ahead of Raikkonen. Bottas was four-tenths further back, with Hamilton a whisker off his team mate (worth noting the ultrasoft can, after a cooling off lap, put in a second quick time). Verstappen was seven-tenths down the road, with Ricciardo, Massa, Hulkenberg, Magnussen and Perez behind him.

Following an engine failure, Stoffel Vandoorne has received a 15 place grid penalty. Given McLaren currently has a 1/6 finishing rate, this is unlikely to unduly impact his race, alas (that said, McLaren reportedly had a good intra-season test, but we’ll see if that actually leads to improvements).

At this stage, Ferrari seem to have an edge (and if they get the whip hand in qualifying then they’re looking good for the titles), with Williams and Force India tussling to see who can top the midfield.

In the final practice session, Vettel topped the time sheet, a third of a second ahead of his team mate. Bottas next up, less than a tenth off his compatriot, and two-tenths up on Hamilton. Verstappen was nearly a second down the road, and followed by Massa and Hulkenberg. Ricciardo was next, with Sainz and Magnussen completing the top 10.

In third practice, Palmer’s engine failed and changing it will put him further down the grid.

For the race, one stop is eminently likely. A safety car is also highly probable. Therefore, teams will likely be trying to make the two coincide, as stopping during the safety car will effectively cost less time, as the racetrack traffic will be circulating at a slower pace. Teams with high tyre wear may suffer, or those prone to trying the undercut.

Anyway, back to qualifying. Whilst confident Ferrari will be faster in race terms, it remains to be seen whether they can match or beat Mercedes over a single fast lap.

I was a bit surprised to see that Hamilton was at 3.5 to win Q3 on Betfair, with Vettel just 1.8. Bottas is 7.4.

Upon checking, Bottas has beaten Hamilton in every practice session so far. Those three (Raikkonen’s not that good a qualifier even when he’s racing well) are all quite tempting. Hmm.

Tricky to tell, so I went back in time to check the gap between Mercedes’ poles and nearest competitors, looking at the third practice and Q3 times. The gaps in P3 were almost identical to those in Q3, suggesting third practice might be a rather good indicator of how practice will go.

Maybe this’ll look silly, but I’m backing Vettel for pole at 1.8 (Ladbrokes).

It’s going to be quite intriguing.

Morris Dancer