Russia: pre-race 2017

Qualifying was tighter than a miser’s purse strings, and very exciting. The Vettel tip came off but, to be honest, it was fortune over judgement. Whilst the Ferrari was faster (marginally) than the Mercedes, Raikkonen could’ve and should’ve beaten his team mate. That he didn’t was due to an error, so the greenness of the bet was due to luck (I’m not complaining, I just think it’s important to realise when a winning bet is wise, and when it’s a fluke). 

In the first part of qualifying Grosjean simply couldn’t get his Haas to be fast. The car’s peculiar, very up-and-down. He was slowest (he won’t start last because Vandoorne and Palmer both have grid penalties). As might be expected, the two Saubers and Vandoorne were ahead of him, with Palmer also failing to escape Q1 (Wehrlein and Palmer both also buggered up their last laps and went off the circuit, Palmer damaging his car a little).

The most remarkable surprise of Q1 was Alonso not only escaping, but being complimentary about his car [normality was resumed in Q2, when he exited and was disparaging about it].

In addition to the irate Spaniard, both Toro Rossos left at this stage, (Sainz 11^th, Kvyat 13^th), as did Stroll, who was the meat in the Toro Rosso sandwich. Magnussen was 14^th, but still significantly faster than Grosjean. However, Q2 also saw the Ferraris be outpaced by the Mercedes by quite a margin, raising fears of sandbagging and my tip looking really stupid.

In Q3, the gloves were off. And so were the table manners, as Hulkenberg and Hamilton squabbled a bit over track position on their out laps. Once that was done, Raikkonen was fastest, a tiny margin ahead of Bottas. Vettel was close behind with Hamilton, who had buggered up part of the lap, a second down. All was not proceeding as I had foreseen.

It was also surprisingly close between the Red Bulls and Hulkenberg/Massa, who really have been punching above their weight.

On the second runs, Raikkonen put in a great lap, until he fluffed the final corner. Vettel improved to grab pole but, quite frankly, it should’ve been his Finnish friend’s. Bottas ended up 3^rd, and Hamilton a lacklustre 4^th (as an aside, Bottas has a great record at Russia and Hamilton seems to struggle in qualifying here). If it finishes like that that, Vettel would stretch his title lead by 13 points.

After them is Ricciardo, who had been beaten by his team mate in earlier sessions but nailed the lap when it counted. Massa, Verstappen and Hulkenberg were next up, with Force India enjoying their first double top 10 qualifying of the season (Perez 9^th, Ocon 10^th).

In the pre-qualifying ramble I wrote: “For the race, one stop is eminently likely. A safety car is also highly probable. Therefore, teams will likely be trying to make the two coincide, as stopping during the safety car will effectively cost less time, as the racetrack traffic will be circulating at a slower pace. Teams with high tyre wear may suffer, or those prone to trying the undercut.”

Now, this may or may not have a bearing (the two events coinciding) but it is very plausible and it will be something teams are looking at.

It’s also worth noting that Ferrari have had slightly tardier starts than Mercedes. If the Prancing Horses can trot off 1-2 after the first corner, it could be a very long day for the Silver Arrows.

My initial betting thoughts were:

Perez, top 6 [tyres]

Force India, double points

Stroll, points

Bottas, podium

McLaren, not to be classified

My thinking on Perez is that he’s a good driver who particularly excels on this sort of circuit (I’ll have my eye on him in Monaco too), and he’s very good at making tyres last. Therefore, he’s least likely to be screwed by an ill-timed safety car. In addition to that, Hulkenberg’s Renault has habitually gone backwards from the grid (they are trying to correct this, however) and the Force India had a strong qualifying. The odds are 3, which is a little mean.

I backed, with a small sum, Force India to get double points at 3 prior to the race weekend (I did mention it elsewhere). Now they’re down to evens, and given potential crashing problems (tight circuit), safety car and the tightness of the midfield, those odds do not appeal.

Stroll has had a DNF at every race. I think his first was reliability, his second was being hit by Perez and his third was being hit by Sainz. However, his car is perfectly good (well, except for that one spot of poor reliability) and he’s generally made progress from the grid. But his odds of evens for points are too short for me to want to back it.

Bottas for a podium is more interesting than it sounds, because if he’s 3^rd and Hamilton’s 4^th, recent murmurings suggest he’ll be politely asked to move aside. So, it’s less likely than it sounds and I was hoping that would mean the odds would be excessively long (Mercedes have started better this year and if he leaps into 2^nd from the grid I’d be unsurprised if he stayed there). However, his odds are 1.5, which appears to be somewhat taking the piss.

McLaren have had 1 out of 6 potential finishes. It’s pretty bloody dire. And there’s not much room for forgiveness in Russia. Against that is the surprisingly good test performance they recently enjoyed. However, their odds are just 1.61 (Vandoorne) and 1.8 (Alonso) not to be classified. Again, just too tight for me. I’d be more tempted by the fact that Williams, Haas, and Sauber each have a 50% DNF rate so far, and Red Bull has had 2/6 DNFs as well, but their odds are much longer [perhaps not Williams, as that’s mostly Stroll being crashed into by other people].

Hmm. So, a maybe bet on Perez.

Perusing the markets, the following appeared of interest:

Under 15.5 finishers, 1.8

Bottas, lead lap 1, 8.5

Bottas, win each way, 9 (Betfair Sportsbook)

There’s been quite a few reliability problems so far this year (perhaps to be expected), and Russia’s a tight circuit. Plus, several drivers have been skidding and making mistakes. On the other hand, under 15.5 classified finishers it is a bit of a lucky sort of bet rather than a cunning bet of judgement. Hmm.

The idea of Bottas leading lap 1 is quite appealing, he’s started well and doesn’t have a title bid to lose so can be a little bolder, but the odds are mean.

The odds on the three behind Vettel winning are unusually long on Betfair, probably because nobody can work out the value. Bottas has been good all weekend, and has also driven well here in the past, with a podium, a DNF and a fourth place. Backing him each way (top 2, third the odds) at 9 is quite tempting. The downside is that if he has Hamilton running right behind him he’ll be politely asked to move aside.

So, the three bets currently in mind are:

Perez, top 6, 3 (Ladbrokes)

Under 15.5 finishers, 1.8 (Ladbrokes)

Bottas, win each way, 9 (Betfair Sportsbook)

The Bottas bet tempts me greatly, but I do think the Ferrari has the edge in race pace.

Perez has a good record here and it’s his type of circuit. I think him passing Hulkenberg (impressive driver, less impressive car) is all but guaranteed, but I’m not sure he’ll get much further without luck (3 to make up three places, especially when one at least must be against a car notionally much faster, and another against a car roughly equal, is tight).

Therefore, I’m tipping there to be under 15.5 finishers at 1.8 (Ladbrokes). This has been the case at every race this year, and most of those have had rather more run-off areas than Russia. Three teams have a 50% DNF rate, one has a DNF rate exceeding 80%, and the circuit is pretty tight (and has seen much sliding around).

Not very exciting, I’m afraid. The race itself, however, is intriguingly poised.

Incidentally, another potential bet, albeit for the title, did spring to mind. Raikkonen is 34. Backed each way (top 2 for a third the odds) may be worth considering. If the Ferrari gets the whip hand (which may become clearer after tomorrow’s race) this could be worth having, either in itself or for trading.

This race is the first of the year on at a normal time. It’s looking rather tight.

Morris Dancer