Monaco: post-race analysis 2017
Must confess to being
livid at Button’s stupidity. Last year’s tip by Mr. Sandpit on No
Safety Car was very good, and it should’ve come off this year but
for a returning veteran forgetting how the laws of physics work.
Wehrlein was fine, but the bet was not. A clear case of bad luck
rather than ill-judgement (on the bet), and these things happen, but
I’m not best pleased about it.
Before that, the race
had been largely a procession. It was pretty much formation flying off
the line. Raikkonen was looking quick and the two Ferraris
were cruising away from the field. Then came the pit stops.
Verstappen and Bottas ended up in traffic, and the Dutchman’s
attempt to undercut the Finn failed. Worse still, clear air enabled
Ricciardo to make up time and he emerged ahead of the pair of them.
There’s an
interesting discussion to have about Ferrari’s timing. Raikkonen
was boxed before Vettel (and Ricciardo) and emerged in traffic. This
helped Vettel to make up the small gap and the German claimed
position on the track after the pit stop.
Misfortune, or Ferrari
‘accidentally’ pitting Raikkonen into traffic so their title
contender could get the full 25 points?
The Finn was well off
the pace on the supersoft tyres of his second stint. Psychological
disinterest, or struggling with the new rubber?
Anyway, whilst not
thrilling, the race was looking nice and green until Button stupidly,
unnecessarily and not even for points tried a pass always destined to
fail on Wehrlein. The German’s car was pushed onto its side just
before the tunnel (he was ok, thankfully) and the safety car emerged.
Verstappen and Perez
pitted for fresh ultrasofts, the Dutchman in particular keen to have
another crack at Bottas. Worth noting that upon the restart cold
tyres meant that the times were miles off the real pace, and the
Ferraris recovered best. The following Red Bulls and Bottas were not
quick.
Perez made a similarly
stupid overtaking attempt on Kvyat, which put the Russian out of the
race and (thanks to a pit stop) the Mexican out of the points.
There were, at least,
some close contests near the end of the race but precious little
overtaking. Said it before, but Monaco is a dog of a track. Slow, and
hard to overtake.
Not very happy about
the safety car, but these sorts of things do happen. Just a shame
when a driver does something stupid that both affects the race and
ruins a bet.
Vettel claimed the win,
Raikkonen got 2nd. A great day for Ferrari, but I do
wonder how Raikkonen’s feeling. Ricciardo had a great drive for
3rd, and was followed by Bottas and Verstappen, both of
whose races were compromised by traffic after pitting.
Sainz might be driver
of the day. Performed very well in his Toro Rosso and kept Hamilton
behind him for many laps (ok, Monaco is the easiest place to do it,
but a single mistake and he would’ve lost the place).
Hamilton’s 7th
is a pretty good recovery but Vettel still took a chunk of points out
of him that could prove critical in the title battle. As the Briton
said over the radio, the battle’s not over.
Haas got their first
double points finish, with Grosjean 8th and Magnussen
10th. Nice day for the new team, who are performing pretty
well in their second season. Massa grabbed 9th for
Williams. Not bad given they tend to really struggle in Monaco.
Retirements also
include Ericsson, who introduced his Sauber to the barrier whilst
trying to overtake the safety car.
Drivers’:
Vettel 129
Hamilton 104
Bottas 75
Raikkonen 67
Vettel is exactly one
race win ahead of Hamilton. However, the Ferrari is a little less
reliable and some parts have been changed. Later in the season this
will likely see them suffer some penalties whilst the Mercedes stays
at the front. Given how close it is, I’d say Vettel remains
favourite.
Constructors’:
Ferrari 196
Mercedes 179
I said, elsewhere,
pre-race that Ferrari at 2.7 was worth a look. They’re down (on
Betfair) to 2.36, but given the dominance at a tight circuit that
seems still a little generous [if you've yet to dip your toe into the market, I've put a tiny sum on them at 4.5]. Also, importantly, Red Bull were able
to get ahead of Hamilton. If that’s repeated at Baku and Singapore
it’ll lose him (together with Ferrari being fast) perhaps 20-40
points.
This is the last Grand
Prix before the General Election. The next race is in a fortnight, at
Canada. It’s one of my favourite circuits and will, I think, be
quite interesting. The twisty bits will help Ferrari but the Mercedes
will be a beast on the straights. The race weekend begins the day
after polling day.
In other news, the
second episode in my new serial, Wandering Phoenix and Roaming Tiger,
has come out. If you haven’t checked out the first (which is free)
please do so as every download helps, and if you like it you can get
the rest. The series’ page is here:
https://www.amazon.co.uk/gp/product/B0725XSTK7
Secondly, I was
thinking that guest blogs might be a good idea. These could be on a
range of sporting matters, or non-sporting events. The only proviso
I’d have is that they aren’t political, as that’s better suited
for politicalbetting.com. If anyone wanted to write on F1, that would
be entirely ok (although I should stress I’m still going to be
writing my race weekend articles). So, if you’re interested, give
me a bell via Vanilla and we’ll work something out.
Morris Dancer
Damn. The Vettel to win worked and everything else was rubbish.
ReplyDeleteMy worst betting day for quite a while.
Thank you, as always, for an excellent series of highly informative posts both before and after the race. Much appreciated.
Np, Mr. M. These things do happen. Red Bull's reliability has been a bit ropey, so that was an understandable bet. The safety car was entirely unnecessary. More irksome to have that than one emerge due to a reliability failure or suchlike.
DeleteAs I said before, do get in touch via Vanilla when the time's right, and we'll arrange a guest post.