Spain: post-race analysis 2017

A very entertaining race, a mixed bag from a betting perspective. To commemorate the luckiest of all tips (Verstappen last year) I offered some frivolous suggestions on PB and one of them (Perez podium at 41) very nearly came off. On the ‘proper’ tips, one green, one red, green overall for both race and weekend. Not huge numbers but still good given, as Kermit the frog taught us, it’s not easy being green.

Off the line, it seemed all square but the Ferrari of Vettel flew into the second phase and the lead, and Bottas had a good start. However, he connected with Raikkonen, who hit Verstappen, and the latter two were both out of the race.

Alonso was knocked wide by Massa, who was taking evasive action, went into a gravel trap and lost a dozen places or so.

Bottas appeared to have taken some damage because although he was much faster than Ricciardo he was rapidly being left behind by Vettel and Hamilton.

Further back, the big winners from the first lap shenanigans were the Force Indias and Hulkenberg.

Vettel pitted first, soft for soft, and Hamilton went for mediums a few laps later. However, Vettel was caught behind Bottas and it took him a few laps to pass (the Mercedes was clearly superior in a straight line, even with DRS for Vettel [as an aside, the DRS zones were extended at the last minute]).

This eroded Vettel’s lead by several seconds, after which Bottas pitted, also for the medium.

Vettel had a gap of about 8s over Hamilton when Vandoorne stupidly drove into the side of Massa, who was right alongside him, breaking the Belgian’s suspension, landing him in a gravel trap and bringing out a Virtual Safety Car.

After some prevarication, Hamilton pitted for softs, with nearly half the race (30 odd laps) to go. Vettel came in the next lap but the VSC had ended, he put on medium tyres and emerged barely ahead of Hamilton.

For a few laps he managed, impressively, to keep the Mercedes behind him, but with faster tyres and superior straight line speed the Silver Arrow steamed past the Prancing Horse (cue grumbling about DRS zones). Worth remembering for later races the top speed advantage Mercedes still has.

And that was almost that. Bottas’ engine blew up late on, catapulting Ricciardo to the podium. Perez was just behind him, and Ocon got 5th for yet another double points finish for Force India (now the only team to boast that record at every race this year).

Hulkenberg got a very tasty 6th, having started 13th and with his team mate languishing in penultimate (15th) place.

Sainz was next, then Wehrlein (who suffered a 5s time penalty for incorrectly entering the pits), with Kvyat and Grosjean next up. Good result for Toro Rosso, first points for Sauber and not a bad result for Haas, all told.

Williams had a shocker. Massa had an extra pit stop but still finished ahead of last-placed Stroll. Alonso recovered fairly well but could only manage 12th. However, the McLaren chassis looked good. Worth considering them for Monaco.

In betting terms, all was luck. Bottas suffering damage then failing to finish was luck, and Verstappen’s failure was the 4th DNF for Red Bull but the first due to misfortune on-track rather than reliability. Given that, pleased to be ahead. Probably an error in judgement to back Bottas, but betting with hindsight is rather easy.

Interestingly, strategy did play a role, and this time around it was Ferrari who screwed up by being slow with the second pit stop. If they’d done it earlier they would’ve maintained the gap to Hamilton, and by the time he caught up, Vettel would’ve had an easier time defending. Whether it would've kept the victory for Ferrari, we'll never know.

Drivers:
Vettel 104
Hamilton 98
Bottas 63
Raikkonen 49

Constructors:
Mercedes 161
Ferrari 153
Red Bull 72
Force India 53

Force India are really putting in a great season so far. They’ve replaced the very good Hulkenberg with the newcomer of the year. Ocon’s driving quickly and without a hint of recklessness; he’s really hit the ground running. If Red Bull keep breaking down, Force India will be there to pick up the points.

Monaco is the next race, in a fortnight. I think Ferrari may have the edge there, also watch out for Perez. It will be interesting to see if Verstappen crashes again.


Morris Dancer

Comments

  1. Firstly, thank you for an excellent race report as usual.
    Also thanks for the the Verstappen tip which I blatantly borrowed as well as the Ricciardo one which didn't do as well. I'm glad that I considered and rejected your Bottas idea.

    For a while it looked as though I would get both parts of my Stroll bet but I'm glad that I landed one of the two.

    Therefore overall I had a nicely green race.

    To Complete The Race – Lance Stroll @ 4/7 WIN
    To Not Complete The Race – Max Verstappen @ 7/2 WIN
    Top 6 Finish – Sergio Perez @ 2/1 WIN
    Race Winner – Sebastian Vettel @ 2/1 EW WIN
    To Not Complete The Race – Daniel Ricciardo @ 7/2 LOSE
    Points Finish – Lance Stroll @ 11/4 LOSE

    ReplyDelete
  2. Np, Mr. M.

    Bit irked with myself over the Bottas tip, but there we are.

    If Ricciardo had broken down that would've been perfect. Alas. Still, very exciting race, and a green weekend.

    ReplyDelete

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