Spain: post-race analysis 2017
A very entertaining
race, a mixed bag from a betting perspective. To commemorate the
luckiest of all tips (Verstappen last year) I offered some frivolous
suggestions on PB and one of them (Perez podium at 41) very nearly
came off. On the ‘proper’ tips, one green, one red, green overall
for both race and weekend. Not huge numbers but still good given, as
Kermit the frog taught us, it’s not easy being green.
Off the line, it seemed
all square but the Ferrari of Vettel flew into the second phase and
the lead, and Bottas had a good start. However, he connected with
Raikkonen, who hit Verstappen, and the latter two were both out of
the race.
Alonso was knocked wide
by Massa, who was taking evasive action, went into a gravel trap and
lost a dozen places or so.
Bottas appeared to have
taken some damage because although he was much faster than Ricciardo
he was rapidly being left behind by Vettel and Hamilton.
Further back, the big
winners from the first lap shenanigans were the Force Indias and
Hulkenberg.
Vettel pitted first,
soft for soft, and Hamilton went for mediums a few laps later.
However, Vettel was caught behind Bottas and it took him a few laps
to pass (the Mercedes was clearly superior in a straight line, even
with DRS for Vettel [as an aside, the DRS zones were extended at the
last minute]).
This eroded Vettel’s
lead by several seconds, after which Bottas pitted, also for the
medium.
Vettel had a gap of
about 8s over Hamilton when Vandoorne stupidly drove into the side of
Massa, who was right alongside him, breaking the Belgian’s
suspension, landing him in a gravel trap and bringing out a Virtual
Safety Car.
After some
prevarication, Hamilton pitted for softs, with nearly half the race
(30 odd laps) to go. Vettel came in the next lap but the VSC had
ended, he put on medium tyres and emerged barely ahead of Hamilton.
For a few laps he
managed, impressively, to keep the Mercedes behind him, but with
faster tyres and superior straight line speed the Silver Arrow
steamed past the Prancing Horse (cue grumbling about DRS zones).
Worth remembering for later races the top speed advantage Mercedes
still has.
And that was almost
that. Bottas’ engine blew up late on, catapulting Ricciardo to the
podium. Perez was just behind him, and Ocon got 5th for
yet another double points finish for Force India (now the only team
to boast that record at every race this year).
Hulkenberg got a very
tasty 6th, having started 13th and with his team
mate languishing in penultimate (15th) place.
Sainz was next, then
Wehrlein (who suffered a 5s time penalty for incorrectly entering the
pits), with Kvyat and Grosjean next up. Good result for Toro Rosso,
first points for Sauber and not a bad result for Haas, all told.
Williams had a shocker.
Massa had an extra pit stop but still finished ahead of last-placed
Stroll. Alonso recovered fairly well but could only manage 12th.
However, the McLaren chassis looked good. Worth considering them for
Monaco.
In betting terms, all
was luck. Bottas suffering damage then failing to finish was luck,
and Verstappen’s failure was the 4th DNF for Red Bull
but the first due to misfortune on-track rather than reliability.
Given that, pleased to be ahead. Probably an error in judgement to
back Bottas, but betting with hindsight is rather easy.
Interestingly, strategy
did play a role, and this time around it was Ferrari who screwed up
by being slow with the second pit stop. If they’d done it earlier
they would’ve maintained the gap to Hamilton, and by the time he
caught up, Vettel would’ve had an easier time defending. Whether it would've kept the victory for Ferrari, we'll never know.
Drivers:
Vettel 104
Hamilton 98
Bottas 63
Raikkonen 49
Constructors:
Mercedes 161
Ferrari 153
Red Bull 72
Force India 53
Force India are really
putting in a great season so far. They’ve replaced the very good
Hulkenberg with the newcomer of the year. Ocon’s driving quickly
and without a hint of recklessness; he’s really hit the ground
running. If Red Bull keep breaking down, Force India will be there to
pick up the points.
Monaco is the next
race, in a fortnight. I think Ferrari may have the edge there, also
watch out for Perez. It will be interesting to see if Verstappen
crashes again.
Morris Dancer
Firstly, thank you for an excellent race report as usual.
ReplyDeleteAlso thanks for the the Verstappen tip which I blatantly borrowed as well as the Ricciardo one which didn't do as well. I'm glad that I considered and rejected your Bottas idea.
For a while it looked as though I would get both parts of my Stroll bet but I'm glad that I landed one of the two.
Therefore overall I had a nicely green race.
To Complete The Race – Lance Stroll @ 4/7 WIN
To Not Complete The Race – Max Verstappen @ 7/2 WIN
Top 6 Finish – Sergio Perez @ 2/1 WIN
Race Winner – Sebastian Vettel @ 2/1 EW WIN
To Not Complete The Race – Daniel Ricciardo @ 7/2 LOSE
Points Finish – Lance Stroll @ 11/4 LOSE
Np, Mr. M.
ReplyDeleteBit irked with myself over the Bottas tip, but there we are.
If Ricciardo had broken down that would've been perfect. Alas. Still, very exciting race, and a green weekend.