Spain: pre-race 2017

Obviously, Raikkonen didn’t get pole, but the tip was green or not depending on whether you hedged. As an experiment, for the first time I put a little on the Ladbrokes exchange (identical set-up) but the hedge was not matched.

In the first part of qualifying, all the cars to depart were from different teams. From fastest to slowest, Ericsson, Palmer, Stroll, Vandoorne and Kvyat failed to progress. Quite surprised that Stroll and Kvyat were so slow.

Q2 was rather competitive, with just a tenth covering the fastest three to leave at this stage. Magnussen, Sainz and Hulkenberg were the fastest three, with Grosjean and Wehrlein bringing up the rear. The Renault has not performed well so far, and Grosjean struggled to keep his Haas on the road at times. However, Q2 was remarkable for the Spaniard who escaped it. Alonso reached Q3 for the first time this year.

In Q2, things had seemed very close at the sharp end, with Mercedes better able to preserve their tyre life for the final sector. And so it proved in Q3. Hamilton got pole, half a tenth ahead of Vettel. Bottas was next, with Raikkonen quick for the first two sectors but dropping half a second in the last and ending up 4^th on the grid.

Verstappen and Ricciardo, unsurprisingly, got the third row, and Alonso did fantastically well to get 7^th. The McLaren chassis seems pretty good, so this may be worth considering ahead of Monaco and Singapore.

Perez, Massa and Ocon finish off the top 10.

A two stop (soft, soft, medium) is predicted for the race, with the hard compound being of use only as a foot stool in the garage. With passing difficult and a safety car possible but not certain, there is scope for tactical shenanigans, and if a car comes out in traffic it’ll find it hard to get past.

The soft is substantially faster, something daft like two and a half seconds, so tiny stints on the medium may be what we see.

Just glancing at the grid, the first bet ideas that spring to mind were:

Bottas, win, each way

Alonso, top 6

Force India, double score

I was mildly disconcerted to see Bottas is out at 8 for the win, each way. I think he stands a pretty good chance, having started well in the races so far, of leapfrogging one or both of the cars ahead of him (and Vettel’s had some reliability problems this weekend). This looks quite tempting, to be honest.

Alonso is 4.33 to get top 6. Now, I think he has the pace to be there if someone ahead of him screws up or breaks down. My concern is his 100% DNF (well, DNF/DNS) record this year due to his car failing. For points, he’s 1.83, although the top 6 seems more tempting to me given Vettel’s reliability problems and Red Bull having a few DNFs themselves. But can he actually finish the race?

Force India are 2.1 for a double points finish. Not long odds, but they both start top 10 and have a perfect record of finishing in the points so far, and excellent reliability. Like Kylie Minogue, the odds are short but nevertheless appealing.

Oddly, quite tempted by all of those. When the markets woke up I had a quick perusal to see if anything leapt out at me.

Verstappen/Ricciardo, not to be classified, 5/6

The Red Bulls have a 3/8 DNF rate, due entirely to reliability. Given that, splitting one stake to back both drivers not to finish seems value to me (also, Spain is quite tight so if they make a mistake or get a knock that could easily do for them).

So, I’m in the peculiar position of having a small number of bets, all of which seem quite interesting.

Whilst I think Force India have a good shot at double points, the potential for traffic problems and short odds put me off.

I quite like Alonso to be top 6, but I just can’t trust his car to make it.

Prevaricated for a long while on the Bottas bet. In the end, I decided to back it (each way, Ladbrokes, 8). His pace in qualifying was very very close to both Vettel and Hamilton and he’s started just about every race well. Plus, Vettel's reliability seems a bit dubious.

I’ve decided to back Verstappen and Ricciardo not to be classified, at 5 and 6 respectively (Ladbrokes, half-stake each). Let’s hope they collide on lap one and the rest of the race is a tight Ferrari-Mercedes battle with a Bottas win.

Morris Dancer