Azerbaijan: pre-qualifying 2017

Grip appears low, although engineers believe it’ll improve over the weekend.

In first practice Verstappen led Ricciardo by nearly half a second with Vettel close behind in third, and Perez splendid in fourth. Hamilton and Bottas were next, followed by Ocon, Massa, Raikkonen and Kvyat.

Verstappen also led in second practice, just a tenth ahead of Bottas, Ricciardo and Raikkonen. Vettel was close behind, and Stroll was half a second off the German. Perez, Kvyat, Ocon and Hamilton round out the top 10.

At this stage, the Red Bulls look really rather good, Force India seems in good shape, and Hamilton seems a bit lost. Still, it’s only two practice sessions (worth recalling he was poor here last year too, and off the boil in Russia 2017).

Bottas was fastest in P3, less than a tenth ahead of Raikkonen. Hamilton was a few tenths back from the Finns, with Ricciardo and Ocon a little further back. Verstappen, who had some issues, was next, then Massa, Kvyat, Stroll and Perez.

Oddly, both Hamilton and Vettel (12th in P3) seem to have slightly dodgy reliability, and Verstappen’s complained his engine sounds weird at the top end. Vettel went into the pits in P3 and didn’t emerge for fast laps, hence his lack of pace. Verstappen also suffered clutch failure and everything switching off late on in P3.

At the moment, my thinking is that qualifying could be very tight indeed, and I’m regretting not backing Raikkonen for pole each way at 15, which I was giving serious consideration but never got around to doing. I’d probably favour Bottas for pole, currently.

I backed Bottas at 4.6 for pole on Betfair, hedge set up at evens. I also backed Raikkonen each way for pole on Ladbrokes, at 9.

I hadn’t planned on two bets for qualifying, a first this season, but I was very surprised the odds were so out of kilter with the performances to date. It might not work out that way, of course, but I do feel the actual chances of Finnish success and the odds offered are quite divergent.

Qualifying is at 2pm UK time.


Morris Dancer

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