Azerbaijan: pre-race 2017
Qualifying was quite
interesting. On the one hand, I’m mildly miffed Hamilton remembered
how driving works (if he’d not, the next two fastest were Bottas
and Raikkonen). On the other, I clearly misjudged his pace and
flukily the two tips, one winning, one losing (unless you didn’t
hedge, then a double loss) ended up being down just 50p assuming you
backed each with £10.
Palmer’s fire meant
he wasn’t in qualifying at all, and Vettel’s reliability problems
means that he’s got an old engine in his Ferrari, which will cost
him some pace and perhaps not be as solid as a newer engine would be.
In news that is not
staggering, both McLarens failed to progress from the first part of
qualifying. Ericsson also dropped out early doors, as did Grosjean.
Q2 wasn’t that
competitive, with a fairly large gap between fastest drop-out Kvyat
and safety. The Russian was a few tenths ahead of his team mate
Sainz, with Magnussen, Hulkenberg and Wehrlein also leaving at this
stage.
Q3 was quite
interesting. After the early fast laps, Bottas led Hamilton. Then
Ricciardo smacked into a barrier and brought out a red flag. With
only one fast lap possible in the remaining time it was looking good
for the Finn, as tyre-warming has taken a little while all weekend.
However, his hopes were dashed when Hamilton put in a very impressive
lap to take pole by almost half a second ahead of Bottas.
The Ferraris had looked
in danger of being surpassed by Red Bull, or possible even Force
India, so I think they’ll be relieved to have the second row to
themselves. Raikkonen beat Vettel for only the second time this year,
but given the engine difference perhaps that doesn’t tell us much.
After looking possibly
third fastest, Verstappen might be disappointed to line up fifth.
Perez, however, will be delighted to have bested Ocon, who looked
rather good in qualifying. The Pink Panthers line up sixth and
seventh.
Stroll beat Massa for
eighth and ninth, a result which will help the Canadian’s
confidence a little bit more. Ricciardo, who had a close encounter
with a wall, as mentioned above, will start tenth, assuming he
doesn’t incur penalties.
A little bit of chat
from the commentators suggested that the chap who starts second
actually has a better line into the first corner, although that side
of the track is dirty. But, if Bottas got the jump on Hamilton, that
might be worth considering.
So, early betting
thoughts:
Bottas, lead lap 1
Bottas, win each way
Ocon top 6
Williams double score
Bottas is 4.2 to lead
lap 1 on Betfair. Just too short to tempt.
Bottas is 5 on
Ladbrokes to win (third the odds to be top two). That’s somewhat
appealing given he’s been fast all weekend and his car appears both
quick and reliable, but if he’s second the greenness is marginal
and there’s always a risk the Ferrari is rather better in the race.
Ocon is just 1.61 to
get a top 6 finish. Whilst the bet’s eminently plausible, that does
rely on someone ahead of him either cocking up or failing to finish.
The odds are too tight to tempt.
Williams are a rather
mean evens to double score. Again, entirely plausible and perhaps
likely, but not enough to tempt.
As is traditional, I
had a look at the markets to see if anything leapt out at me.
Raikkonen, fastest lap
9 (to be hedged)
And, er, that was it.
I’m not wild about anything. Which is awkward. So, I had a second
look.
Toro Rosso, double
score, 4.33
The Toro Rossos start
11th and 12th, and seem to have a sizeable pace
advantage on those behind. Sainz has scored on 5 occasions (2 DNFs),
and Kvyat has scored on 2 occasions (3 DNFs).
Unusually for me, I
decided to wait overnight, see if match/group markets went up on
Ladbrokes or inspiration struck me, and see how things looked in the
morning.
Vandoorne and Alonso
are 3-3 for results so far (largely because Alonso’s car almost
always fails). Vandoorne is 3.5 to beat Alonso. Now, on pace, those
odds seem right. But given horrendous reliability and the Spaniard
suffering more than the Belgian for whatever reason, that’s worth
looking at.
The other potential bet
that interested me was Perez or Ocon to win Group 2 (also including
Verstappen and Ricciardo), at 7.5 and 13 respectively. Verstappen,
Perez and Ocon start 5th to 7th, with Ricciardo
down in 10th. The Red Bull is faster, but might struggle
to make headway, and Verstappen’s reliability has been a bit dodgy
this weekend (not to mention potential for crashing or traffic).
Verstappen is only 4 not to be classified, and if he isn’t I’d
probably expect one of the Force Indias to be prime beneficiary.
So, from no bets to
trying to decide between two. The agony of choice. In the end I
decided to back Vandoorne to beat Alonso. History indicates it’s a
50/50 shot, and the odds are 3.5. Not tremendously exciting, but
there we are.
The race starts at 2pm
UK time.
Morris Dancer
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