Azerbaijan: pre-race 2017

Qualifying was quite interesting. On the one hand, I’m mildly miffed Hamilton remembered how driving works (if he’d not, the next two fastest were Bottas and Raikkonen). On the other, I clearly misjudged his pace and flukily the two tips, one winning, one losing (unless you didn’t hedge, then a double loss) ended up being down just 50p assuming you backed each with £10.

Palmer’s fire meant he wasn’t in qualifying at all, and Vettel’s reliability problems means that he’s got an old engine in his Ferrari, which will cost him some pace and perhaps not be as solid as a newer engine would be.

In news that is not staggering, both McLarens failed to progress from the first part of qualifying. Ericsson also dropped out early doors, as did Grosjean.

Q2 wasn’t that competitive, with a fairly large gap between fastest drop-out Kvyat and safety. The Russian was a few tenths ahead of his team mate Sainz, with Magnussen, Hulkenberg and Wehrlein also leaving at this stage.

Q3 was quite interesting. After the early fast laps, Bottas led Hamilton. Then Ricciardo smacked into a barrier and brought out a red flag. With only one fast lap possible in the remaining time it was looking good for the Finn, as tyre-warming has taken a little while all weekend. However, his hopes were dashed when Hamilton put in a very impressive lap to take pole by almost half a second ahead of Bottas.

The Ferraris had looked in danger of being surpassed by Red Bull, or possible even Force India, so I think they’ll be relieved to have the second row to themselves. Raikkonen beat Vettel for only the second time this year, but given the engine difference perhaps that doesn’t tell us much.

After looking possibly third fastest, Verstappen might be disappointed to line up fifth. Perez, however, will be delighted to have bested Ocon, who looked rather good in qualifying. The Pink Panthers line up sixth and seventh.

Stroll beat Massa for eighth and ninth, a result which will help the Canadian’s confidence a little bit more. Ricciardo, who had a close encounter with a wall, as mentioned above, will start tenth, assuming he doesn’t incur penalties.

A little bit of chat from the commentators suggested that the chap who starts second actually has a better line into the first corner, although that side of the track is dirty. But, if Bottas got the jump on Hamilton, that might be worth considering.

So, early betting thoughts:
Bottas, lead lap 1
Bottas, win each way
Ocon top 6
Williams double score

Bottas is 4.2 to lead lap 1 on Betfair. Just too short to tempt.

Bottas is 5 on Ladbrokes to win (third the odds to be top two). That’s somewhat appealing given he’s been fast all weekend and his car appears both quick and reliable, but if he’s second the greenness is marginal and there’s always a risk the Ferrari is rather better in the race.

Ocon is just 1.61 to get a top 6 finish. Whilst the bet’s eminently plausible, that does rely on someone ahead of him either cocking up or failing to finish. The odds are too tight to tempt.

Williams are a rather mean evens to double score. Again, entirely plausible and perhaps likely, but not enough to tempt.

As is traditional, I had a look at the markets to see if anything leapt out at me.
Raikkonen, fastest lap 9 (to be hedged)

And, er, that was it. I’m not wild about anything. Which is awkward. So, I had a second look.

Toro Rosso, double score, 4.33

The Toro Rossos start 11th and 12th, and seem to have a sizeable pace advantage on those behind. Sainz has scored on 5 occasions (2 DNFs), and Kvyat has scored on 2 occasions (3 DNFs).

Unusually for me, I decided to wait overnight, see if match/group markets went up on Ladbrokes or inspiration struck me, and see how things looked in the morning.

Vandoorne and Alonso are 3-3 for results so far (largely because Alonso’s car almost always fails). Vandoorne is 3.5 to beat Alonso. Now, on pace, those odds seem right. But given horrendous reliability and the Spaniard suffering more than the Belgian for whatever reason, that’s worth looking at.

The other potential bet that interested me was Perez or Ocon to win Group 2 (also including Verstappen and Ricciardo), at 7.5 and 13 respectively. Verstappen, Perez and Ocon start 5th to 7th, with Ricciardo down in 10th. The Red Bull is faster, but might struggle to make headway, and Verstappen’s reliability has been a bit dodgy this weekend (not to mention potential for crashing or traffic). Verstappen is only 4 not to be classified, and if he isn’t I’d probably expect one of the Force Indias to be prime beneficiary.

So, from no bets to trying to decide between two. The agony of choice. In the end I decided to back Vandoorne to beat Alonso. History indicates it’s a 50/50 shot, and the odds are 3.5. Not tremendously exciting, but there we are.

The race starts at 2pm UK time.


Morris Dancer

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