Canada: post-race analysis 2017

A cracking race from start to finish, marred only by the bets going mostly wrong. The safety car appeared due to daft driving by Sainz on lap one (whilst there were incidents later in the race it never emerged again, suggesting that the Spaniard’s silliness was the blame rather than the nature of the circuit). Raikkonen failed to get fastest lap, partially due to bad luck, but the hedge was happily matched so that bet ended up green. And the short odds bets on Ocon and Palmer both came off in a pretty straightforward manner. I might check match/group bets again, if they make repeat appearances.

A note, I’m writing this the day after the night before and the race was crammed with incident, so apologies in advance if I miss off little snippets or get the order a bit wrong.

Initially, the start seemed straightforward, but into the first corner Verstappen leapt all the way into 2^nd and both Ferraris slid back. Worse still, Vettel’s front wing took a bit of a knock. Massa also had a poor start and his first lap became terminal when Sainz tried to cut across Grosjean, got tilted around and struck Massa whilst going in reverse at a significant rate of knots. The safety car emerged.

Hamilton was cruising off to victory, Verstappen was in great shape, the Force Indias were going well, and ahead of them (behind Bottas) was Ricciardo. Vettel’s nose took another knock and even though it was only lap 5 (of 70) he had to be pitted for the supersoft. This shoved him to the back of the race, more or less.

But he wasn’t the only one to suffer problems. Verstappen, who had had a great start and strong pace throughout, suffered an electrical failure that ended his race and brought out a virtual safety car. Very unfortunate for the Dutchman, and another reliability failure for Red Bull.

This put Bottas into 2^nd and Ricciardo 3^rd, but the Aussie, having pitted, was chased very closely by the two Force Indias. The Pink Panthers had also pitted, but Perez (ahead on track) had older tyres than the clearly faster Ocon. The Frenchman asked to be let through on team radio and though this was limply suggested to Perez, the Mexican flatly refused. Not much iron will at Force India (it would’ve been the right call, with the option of swapping them back if Ocon couldn’t pass Ricciardo) and I imagine there’s now a little bit of bad feeling over that.

At this stage of the race Hamilton had completed the Telegraph crossword and moved onto the Financial Times’.

Vettel was stomping through the field like a gallivanting female Ted Heath, but had a slight problem in that Raikkonen was ahead of him. However, this was remedied through unorthodox means. Raikkonen was pitted for ultrasoft tyres, emerging just behind Vettel in position (there was a big gap with Alonso behind). At this stage, my Raikkonen fastest lap bet was looking rather tasty (I suspect this is when the hedge at evens was matched).

He was told Vettel was staying out, and initially that was true, but having done so many laps on his tyres the German did end up pitting (the Ferraris were the only chaps, I think, who had two rather than one stops).

Then the inevitable happened. Alonso’s engine blew up as he was running with good pace in a strong 7^th (or thereabouts). It is sounding more and more like Mercedes will have an engine in the back of McLaren next year, *if* that can be legally agreed with Honda [NB backing Alonso for the 2018 title if you can get super odds may be worth considering. The McLaren chassis is tasty].

Vettel was catching Raikkonen, and both of them were catching Ocon. But then Raikkonen suffered a brake by wire problem. He seems to have got it mended but it cost him about 6s a lap of pace for a few laps, and it seemed for a while that he’d end up falling out of the points altogether. Naturally, Vettel cruised past then reached the back of Ocon.

Going into the first corner, Perez, Ocon and Vettel were almost side-by-side. The Mexican retained position but Vettel (holding the racing line) forced Ocon to run wide. The German went on to pass Perez and claim 4^th, in an excellent piece of damage limitation after a very bad start to the race and an extra pit stop. He was very close to Ricciardo but couldn’t quite pass the Aussie, who had a fantastic defensive drive for most of the race, fending off cars behind that were clearly quicker.

Hamilton finished his second crossword, and won the race at a canter, heading up a Mercedes 1-2. A lovely day for the Silver Arrows.

Ferrari lost a lot of ground today, but it could’ve been a lot worse. Vettel was 4^th and Raikkonen 7^th, and the German’s title lead was halved. Both teams will have some clunky races, but on such things a tight season turns.

Mixed for Red Bull as Ricciardo got a podium (have to have been a clever chap to see that coming) and Verstappen’s great start was wrecked by reliability woe. Force India had a cracking result, 5^th and 6^th, perhaps slightly marred by management weakness and driver intransigence (at the line there was a quarter of a second between them as Ocon tried to pass again).

Hulkenberg had a good solid race, although he could do with a bit more power in his Renault. He also had an identical race time to Lance Stroll, who finished behind the German to secure his first points.

Grosjean nabbed the final point.

In addition to drivers mentioned already, Kvyat had to be retired. The Russian was not best pleased before that, making expletive-ridden radio messages (he had received, stupidly, two penalties for the same offence, but even so).

So, the safety car bet turned out to be rubbish, the Ocon/Palmer bet turned out to be cunning (Palmer was 11^th, Vandoorne 14^th), and the Raikkonen bet was green or red depending on whether you hedged or not. The race is also green or red depending on if you hedged or not. The weekend overall was either red by a tiny sum or just over two stakes, on the same basis.

Not a great result. It’s slightly annoying when the bets you decide against come off, and the ones you go for don’t, but there we are.

Drivers’:

Vettel 141

Hamilton 129

Bottas 93

Raikkonen 73

Hamilton takes a big bite out of Vettel’s lead, but if the Briton wins the next two races and Vettel’s right behind then that would only lead to a 2 point lead for Hamilton.

Constructors’:

Mercedes 222

Ferrari 214

Raikkonen’s woe means an even bigger turn around on this table, but I think there’s been an over-reaction on the markets. Ferrari are now 3 for the title on Ladbrokes. I’ve already backed them at 4.5, but if you haven’t dipped a toe in the market, now may well be the time to put a little on Ferrari (don't get carried away, they are weaker on reliability, although their car is more flexible than the Mercedes).

Some gossip from the BBC today was of interest. Wolff reckons Rosberg might return to F1, going to Ferrari. I can’t see it myself. Vettel won’t be going anywhere and I can’t see Rosberg wanting to be a number two driver. A more interesting rumour is that Kubica might come back. The Pole was a fantastic driver and if he’s still got the pace he could be a title contender.

The next race is the irrationally named European Grand Prix. In Azerbaijan’s capital, Baku. It was memorable last year for mostly being more tedious than Monaco but with a ridiculous straight. I think that could be good for Bottas and Perez. Hamilton was oddly rubbish there last year, and the Finn’s got a great car for straight line speed. Force India proved in Canada they’re similarly competitive on the straights and Perez is very good on street circuits. Expecting woe unending for McLaren. Again.

We visit Baku in a fortnight.

Morris Dancer