Canada: pre-race 2017

Well, my tip proved neither strong nor stable. It looked really close (four-thousandths in it) after the first run in Q3, but Hamilton ended up on pole by a day and a half.

In the first part of qualifying we lost mostly those you might expect to toddle off. Vandoorne was fastest to depart, follow by Stroll (but his team mate made Q3, so questions about his speed won’t stop any time soon). Magnussen, Ericsson and Wehrlein also exited stage left, with the German touching the grass, spinning and ploughing backwards into the barriers.

Sainz complained in Q2 of giving Kvyat a slipstream (as planned, on the main straight) but the favour not being returned. Either way, the Russian qualified 11^th, with the Spaniard 13^th (his countryman, Alonso, between the Toro Rossos). Grosjean and Palmer prop up the departure list. I can’t see Palmer lasting beyond this season (there was a rumour he might be replaced in-season. It would be unusual, but not unprecedented).

In the first run of qualifying Hamilton put in a stonking lap but Vettel got within four-thousandths of a second (the Finns were a little way further back). It seemed game on, but Hamilton went even faster and Vettel couldn’t get close. Another front row for the title contenders, but the bet was as silly as an unnecessary General Election (well, perhaps not quite that silly).

Bottas edged Raikkonen on the Finnish row and Red Bull occupied their 2017 customary position of row three, Verstappen ahead of Ricciardo. Massa qualified 10 places ahead of his team mate, with Perez alongside him (Force India looking tasty), Ocon and Hulkenberg rounding out the top 10.

Initial betting thoughts:

Force India double score

Perez top 6

Stroll DNF

Raikkonen podium

I’ve already backed No Safety Car at 3, so if nothing leaps out at me I’m quite content with that single bet (the odds have shortened slightly to 2.62. Probably still value).

Force India are 1.66 to double score. Too short. I think it’s eminently possible but it only takes one of them to have a bad start or suffer misfortune/crash to fail.

Perez is only 1.83 to be top 6. That likely requires him to beat Massa (eminently possible) and a Red Bull to DNF. However, the Red Bulls are, each, 4.33 to DNF, so I’d be more inclined to back that than the Perez bet (Ocon’s very much on pace, so there’s a chance the Frenchman could beat his Mexican team mate too).

Stroll is 2.37 not to be classified. He’s got 4 DNFs this year, although most of them weren’t his fault (hit by other cars or reliability). Bit too short to tempt, given those circumstances.

Raikkonen is 1.83 for a podium. Reasonable, but not fantastic.

I’m inclined to avoid the winner market because I think the Ferrari’s very good but Hamilton has a great record here. Incidentally, Canada’s track has the lowest pole-to-win conversion rate of any race (about a third). The odds are too short for me (you’d need to lay down a slab of money to make anything worth winning) but Betfair has, at the time of writing odds of Hamilton and Vettel, respectively, of 1.8 and 2.92 to win. You could, therefore, back both (relative stakes of 3.24 and 2 for roughly equal profit) and finish ahead if either wins, but the profit margin would be something like 10% of the total stake. I am not backing this myself, but thought it worth flagging up in case any of you found it interesting.

Anyway, excepting the Red Bull-rather-than-Perez bet above, none looked too appealing. A quick perusal of the markets found the following:

Raikkonen, fastest lap, 8.5

Ricciardo/Verstappen, not to be classified, 4.33 (each)

Ocon to win Betting Group C, 1.72 [includes Hulkenberg, Sainz and Kvyat]

Perez to beat Massa, 2.1 [3:3 so far, but Massa usually better in qualifying]

Palmer to beat Vandoorne, 2 [4:2 so far, Palmer has 2 DNFs to Vandoorne’s 4]

In the last three races three different chaps (Rosberg, Raikkonen and Massa) have had fastest laps. Assuming effort’s being put in, only one of the top four will get it this year (indeed, the year Massa got it, 2014, the Williams was rather tasty). If one of Vettel or Hamilton has the edge, then the other will likely settle into 2^nd to avoid stressing the car, and Raikkonen does seem to like getting fastest laps. Odds of 8.5 are value, and it’s worth considering. Raikkonen has had 2 fastest laps in 5 finishes, which is quite a high rate.

Ricciardo and Verstappen each have 2 DNFs out of 6 races. So, a third of a chance each of being knocked out. Therefore, 4.33 is more or less fair. However, Canada does have some very tight spots, so if you get it wrong (excepting the hairpin where there’s nice run-off) in most places you’re either going to say hello to the wall or spin and hope you can keep going.

Betting group C (Ladbrokes) includes Ocon, Hulkenberg, Sainz and Kvyat. The Force India is the most reliable of these and is also the fastest. The potential spanner in the works is Hulkenberg (4) who starts right behind Ocon. However, the Renault has typically gone backwards rather than forwards in the race. If it were 2.5 or suchlike, I’d back this, but 1.72 is a bit mean. Upon checking, Hulkenberg has beaten Ocon only once in six races, and that was when they qualified, respectively, 7^th and 14^th in Bahrain, and it was by a single place. Hmm. Maybe this is worth backing.

Perez is 2.1 to beat Massa. They’re even matched (3:3) in races so far, but usually Massa has a qualifying advantage and this time the Brazilian is just one place ahead. Pretty tempting.

Palmer to beat Vandoorne is evens. The Briton has a 4:2 advantage, and has just 2 DNFs to Vandoorne’s 4. This is value.

So, a surfeit of potential bets. Bit awkward, really, especially as I’ve already made one. None of the ideas I had before checking the odds are long enough to tempt.

The Raikkonen fastest lap bet is tempting. Red Bull DNF isn’t long enough. Ocon’s odds are short, but it’s a very likely outcome, if he finishes. Perez’s odds are a little short (the Williams often slides down the order, but not always). Palmer to beat Vandoorne is value, simply because Vandoorne’s car has a 67% DNF rate.

Got to back the Raikkonen bet. He’s had 1 of 3 fastest laps at the circuit in the last 3 years and 2 out of 5 fastest laps in finishes this year. In the joint fastest car, odds of 8.5 are too long. Those odds are Ladbrokes. I set up a hedge at evens on Betfair (as an aside, whenever I set up a hedge I do it in such a way to be more ahead if the initial bet comes off than if it doesn’t, and usually to be up one stake, net, if it does not).

So, tips (all Ladbrokes, save the hedge):

[Carry-over from yesterday – No Safety Car at 3. Currently 2.62. Probably still value but for the records it stands at 3].

Raikkonen, fastest lap, 8.5 [hedged at evens on Betfair]

One stake split evenly between: Ocon, 1.72, to win betting group C; Palmer to beat Vandoorne, 2

The race starts at 7pm, UK time. Let’s hope it’s a good one.

Morris Dancer