MorrisF1

Overnight a thought struck me: what if Kvyat and Vandoorne’s odds were the wrong way round. This morning the group C market had been taken down by Ladbrokes. I checked the bet and, as of 7.30am (give or take) the bet remained open, at the odds I’d tipped. The race had little passing but a lot of tension and was eminently enjoyable, as a spectator, for that reason. The bets were dire, as I’ll discuss below. One-third foolish misjudgement, two-thirds terrible luck. Off the line it was formation flying at the sharp end. Then Verstappen cocked up and went wide, Ricciardo passed him, the Dutchman locked a brake and struck his team mate, putting the Aussie out of the race, bringing out a safety car, and (after an investigation) getting Verstappen a 10s time penalty, which he served at his pit stop. First time there’s ever been a safety car on lap one. Sainz had made an annoyingly good start and was ahead of Vandoorne by a couple of places. When the safety car bugge

An intriguing session of qualifying. Mildly miffed by not backing/tipping Raikkonen for pole each way at 6.5, but these things happen. If anybody did back the early Vettel tips but held their nerve better than me ahead of qualifying, the lay value on Betfair is now 1.6 (his back odds had been 5 to 6 or so earlier in the week). Di Resta was thrown into the deep end, climbing into a car he’d never driven and getting to learn it in qualifying. Given that, he did extremely well to qualify 19 th , just 0.7s off Stroll’s time. Both Williams failed to escape the first part of qualifying, as did both Saubers. Magnussen was fastest of those ejected at this stage. It was tight to get the last place in Q1, but Sainz just edged out Palmer (whose days increasingly appear to be numbered). In a poor show for perhaps the best midfield team, both Force Indias failed to progress, Ocon qualifying 12 th and Perez 14 th . Kvyat and Grosjean also left in Q2. At the sharp end, it was looking

News! Sauber’s confirmed a deal for Ferrari engines next year, having axed a planned move to Honda. This may be good news for McLaren, as Mercedes can only supply one more time and there was a suggestion they might go for Sauber. If McLaren ditch Honda, they can (if Mercedes agree…) get the best engine. Keep an eye on Alonso and Vandoorne’s odds on the title next year. Also, the halo has been confirmed for next year. This has been largely derided by fans and is opposed by 9/10 teams. I’m largely neutral, although the revelation this ‘safety’ feature will see cockpit evacuation times increased from 5s to 8-10s hasn’t exactly persuaded me it’s a great idea. And the fact it’s coming in for F1 but not other categories is a bit weird, if it’s a supremely safe and important addition. Before the weekend commenced, on politicalbetting.com, I tipped Vettel for the win each way (odds varied a bit, but it was 4 when I mentioned it, later 5.5), and No Safety Car at 1.61 (1.79 was b

In betting terms, this season started brilliantly, and then gradually declined. At the moment, you’re up a whole tenth of a stake on a hedged basis, and down just over three stakes on a bet-and-forget basis. However, that’s only counting the weekend tips, not early ones (last race had a 3 and 8 winner, as well as an early loser). Some of this was just misjudgement by me. Some of it was misfortune (Button’s needless idiocy in Monaco cost me a lovely 6.5 winner). So, not thrilled, but it could be worse. I’ve also, on the winning side, had some good judgement but also some fluky moments (particularly with early bets, not all of which I mention due to lack of liquidity or instant buyer’s remorse). My own current result is a little better than the official record. As usual, the graph indicates the results based on a standard £10 stake on every tip offered in the weekend articles. This year, as I mentioned earlier, I’m collecting more data on race-by-race points tallies and a

Well, that was a race. The bet was red and fundamentally misjudged by me, (early tips were rather nicer), but the race itself had an interesting end and a final few laps that turned everything on its head. On the formation lap Palmer’s brake-by-wire (BBW) system broke, and then his hydraulics went too. This prevented him from even reaching the pits/grid. Whilst he is being outdriven by his team mate, Palmer can’t really fight back when his car breaks down. Off the line Vettel started poorly and was passed by Verstappen. He wrestled the place back only to lose it again (Raikkonen, who retained 2 nd , preventing both drivers behind him from taking ideal lines at different times). This would prove race-defining. Further down, Bottas made a great start, and Perez had an oddly poor one, dropping a few places. Kvyat reminded everyone of his new nickname (the Torpedo) by clumsily side-swiping and wiping out his team mate Sainz. This brought out the safety car for a

Qualifying was thoroughly entertaining, and it was also nice the early Raikkonen bet (tipped each way at 26 for pole, but it lengthened, weirdly, to 34 after third practice) came off. Doesn’t count in the records and another early tip (Ricciardo podium at 3.5) looks eminently improbable, but still good stuff (the last early tip, Raikkonen podium at 3.3, is eminently layable at around 1.7). Contrary to weather forecasts, it was drizzling quite a bit in Q1. Inters were the order of the day, as early runners on the slicks had all the grip of a lubricated Mister Blobby. Late on, Alonso, who had nothing to lose with his 30 place penalty, switched to slicks. He barely made it across the line to begin a hot lap, and was fastest of all, earning the rightful applause and cheers of the crowd. It was less happy for Ricciardo, who was initially fastest but whose turbo decided not to work any more. Joining Ricciardo in the drop zone were both Saubers, Magnussen and Stroll. Things dried o

I offered a couple of early tips on Tuesday (Ricciardo for a podium 3.5, Raikkonen each way for pole at 26) on politicalbetting.com, and we’ll see how that pays off. In the future it’s possible I’ll expand my F1 ramblings beyond the usual format, but that’s for another day. Some Sauber news emerged between the Austrian and British races. Monisha Kaltenborn, the first female team principal in F1 (though Claire Williams is the day-to-day de facto boss at the Williams team), left suddenly and unexpectedly a few weeks ago. She has now been replaced by Frederic Vasseur, former team principal at Renault. This year, Sauber are using year-old Ferrari engines. It had been announced they’d switch to Honda (probably more for finance than performance) next year but that deal may have fallen through. If so, and McLaren return to Mercedes, that could be curtains for the Japanese engine manufacturer. Their return to F1 has not been an episode of undiluted glory. An interesting additio

An exciting end and eventful start, but not a thrilling race in between. Also, not profitable. It’s especially irksome when the two things you considered but didn’t back (Vandoorne to beat Alonso, Verstappen not to be classified) come off and the things you did back don’t come off. Still, this sort of thing happens (the weather being dry didn’t help). Off the line Verstappen’s clutch failed, anti-stall engaged, he barely moved and, to add insult to injury, Kvyat smacked into Alonso who struck Verstappen, taking out the Spaniard and the Dutchman. Sacre bleu! The two Williams selfishly, maliciously, and in a quite beastly manner, negotiated the carnage ahead of them expertly, both of them making up the best part of 10 places on the first lap. Raikkonen lost out a little, with Ricciardo starting very well and troubling Vettel, who managed to retain his position off the grid. Hamilton rose to 6 th or thereabouts, having a brief swap of places with Perez, then passing Grosj

Must admit to being annoyed with myself for not backing Bottas for pole. I thought he had a decent chance of second, but never thought he’d actually get the fastest time (I thought Hamilton was nailed on). Ah well. These things happen. Incidentally, a shield (bit like an updated aeroscreen) will be tested at the next race. http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/40542285 In the first part of qualifying we saw the unsurprising departure of both Saubers and Palmer. More surprising was a shocking result for Williams, both of which failed to advance. It seems the aerodynamic upgrade has unbalanced the car and is seriously compromising performance. This should be a strong Williams track, instead they’re second slowest. In the second session Hulkenberg was the fastest to depart, ahead of Alonso and Vandoorne. Kvyat was slowest but still ahead of Magnussen who reached Q2 but who couldn’t run due to suspension damage. A shame, as the Haas looked a handful, but with good pace. Wort

No further action will be taken against Vettel after the handbags of last race. I am not consumed by surprise at this news. It also sounds like there’s some disagreement between Ocon and Perez as to the blame for their needless collision in Azerbaijan (Ocon saying he and the team think it was 50/50, Perez blaming Ocon). Both men are good drivers, and I’ve been very impressed with Ocon, but there does come a point when intra-team rivalry becomes damaging. Force India could’ve had a maiden win, even a 1-2, last race. Instead they had a shockingly poor result. There’s the potential for scattered thunderstorms on race day. Both Hamilton and Vettel are very good in the wet. Verstappen is too, as is Hulkenberg, though both of them have cars that will likely be a little off the pace in the dry, as the circuit is one where straight line speed is most useful. Accordingly, I expect Mercedes to triumph. My betting’s been a bit wonky lately. Not superbad, some was just misfortune (damn