Austria: pre-qualifying 2017

No further action will be taken against Vettel after the handbags of last race. I am not consumed by surprise at this news. It also sounds like there’s some disagreement between Ocon and Perez as to the blame for their needless collision in Azerbaijan (Ocon saying he and the team think it was 50/50, Perez blaming Ocon). Both men are good drivers, and I’ve been very impressed with Ocon, but there does come a point when intra-team rivalry becomes damaging. Force India could’ve had a maiden win, even a 1-2, last race. Instead they had a shockingly poor result.

There’s the potential for scattered thunderstorms on race day. Both Hamilton and Vettel are very good in the wet. Verstappen is too, as is Hulkenberg, though both of them have cars that will likely be a little off the pace in the dry, as the circuit is one where straight line speed is most useful. Accordingly, I expect Mercedes to triumph.

My betting’s been a bit wonky lately. Not superbad, some was just misfortune (damn you, Button!), but I’m unlikely to offer a qualifying tip unless something really leaps out at me. Both qualifying and the race start at the civilised hour of 1pm.

In first practice Hamilton topped the time sheets, ahead of Verstappen and Bottas. Vettel was half a second off his rival, ahead of Ricciardo and Raikkonen, with Vandoorne, Kvyat, Alonso and Ocon rounding out the top 10.

In second practice Hamilton was again quickest but the gap to Vettel was just one and a half tenths. Bottas followed close behind, Verstappen and Ricciardo next up and Raikkonen, Magnussen, Alonso, Hulkenberg and Grosjean following.

At this stage, I’m immensely surprised the McLaren (albeit with an upgraded Honda engine) seems to be doing well. Austria’s all about straight line speed, so either Williams and Force India are keeping their powder dry or the upgrade’s pretty tasty. If McLaren are competitive for points, there could be some value there (although reliability remains to be seen).

Surprising news came on Saturday morning. Hamilton’s going to have to replace his gearbox, which entails a five place grid penalty. Mercedes’ reliability has been rock solid, best of all the teams so far this year. However, he’s looking good for pole so don’t count him out just yet (as of 7.30am he’s 3 and Vettel 2.87 for the win, Ladbrokes).

I occasionally check the Ladbrokes Exchange and did so on a whim pre-qualifying, to discover a few specials. I’ll try and remember to check it more in the future. Nothing seemed value to me but there were some interesting ideas.

It also seems that Alonso has to revert to his old-spec, slower Honda engine. I’m also bamboozled by the seeming lack of pace from Force India and Williams. Hamilton appears to have suffered a brake disc problem late in the latter stages of final practice. Seems the disc disintegrated upon locking. According to F1 journalist Adam Cooper, the disc itself was fine but it wasn’t fitted properly (reducing the chance of the problem recurring).

In third practice, Vettel was quickest, two-tenths up on Hamilton, with Bottas a similar distance further back. Raikkonen, Verstappen, Ricciardo, Magnussen and Grosjean were all a tenth off the chap in front, Kvyat and Sainz rounding out the top 10.

Given Hamilton’s pace so far but also reliability problems I’m not inclined to bet on pole/fastest Q3 time. The only bet that caught my eye was Bottas each way at 6. But I decided against it (I think the each way has a reasonable chance, but the odds are short).

So, no qualifying tip.

Qualifying should be good. Intrigued to see how McLaren, Williams and Force India do.

Morris Dancer