Hungary: pre-qualifying 2017

News!

Sauber’s confirmed a deal for Ferrari engines next year, having axed a planned move to Honda. This may be good news for McLaren, as Mercedes can only supply one more time and there was a suggestion they might go for Sauber. If McLaren ditch Honda, they can (if Mercedes agree…) get the best engine. Keep an eye on Alonso and Vandoorne’s odds on the title next year.

Also, the halo has been confirmed for next year. This has been largely derided by fans and is opposed by 9/10 teams. I’m largely neutral, although the revelation this ‘safety’ feature will see cockpit evacuation times increased from 5s to 8-10s hasn’t exactly persuaded me it’s a great idea. And the fact it’s coming in for F1 but not other categories is a bit weird, if it’s a supremely safe and important addition.

Before the weekend commenced, on politicalbetting.com, I tipped Vettel for the win each way (odds varied a bit, but it was 4 when I mentioned it, later 5.5), and No Safety Car at 1.61 (1.79 was briefly available). Hungary is the circuit least likely to see one, and the weather forecast is 100% dry.

In first practice there was a surprise. Ricciardo was fastest, nearly three-tenths up on Raikkonen, who was a small way ahead of Hamilton. Verstappen was next, seven-tenths off his team mate, then Bottas and Vettel some way off the pace (he reportedly had oversteer problems). Alonso and Vandoorne were next, then Hulkenberg and Palmer.

First practice also had Ricciardo topping the timesheet, with Vettel a couple of tenths back. Bottas, Raikkonen and Hamilton were all within a tenth or so of the German, Verstappen a small way down the road. Hulkenberg, Alonso, Sainz and Vandoorne rounded out the top 10.

At this stage, McLaren are looking good, as are Red Bull. I am perplexed, though, by the odds. Hamilton’s scarcely over evens whereas Vettel’s over 6 on Betfair, last I checked. This is only practice, but if it’s moving the markets then it should be tightening them, not making Vettel’s odds longer. (NB Mr. G mentioned that Hamilton was compromised by red flags in second practice and otherwise would’ve been faster).

Hulkenberg’s also looking quite good. Renault’s new floor is worth 0.2s and Palmer having a few offs may have damaged his (last race only Hulkenberg had it). So far, Force India and Williams are looking a little ordinary.

Hulkenberg’s got a 5 place grid penalty for a gearbox change. Damned shame.

In third practice Vettel was fastest, nearly half a second ahead of his team mate. Bottas was a similar distance further back, likewise Verstappen then Hamilton (scrappy lap, he was 1.4s off his German rival). Then came Vandoorne, Hulkenberg, Ricciardo, Alonso and Palmer (NB Palmer does have the new floor).

Red Bull’s aero upgrades seem to be working nicely. They’ll prove effective at slower circuits, but at Monza they’ll still, probably, have a rough time. Just after writing this Ricciardo suffered a reliability failure in P3. A pity, he’d looked rather good this weekend.

Massa was unwell after second practice but was given the all-clear (Di Resta was ready to step in).Still possible that switch might happen. Tricky for Di Resta to jump in for qualifying having had zero practice.

As an aside, there’s an unusually enormous jump in odds from sixth favourite to win (Verstappen, 13) to seventh (Alonso, 501).

As mentioned, I tipped Vettel at 4 before (also 5.2/5.5 depending on timing), he now has a lay value of 2.32 which I’ve taken to be flat/a smidge green. Won’t count in the records but if you backed that then the opportunity for guaranteed greenness is available.

Incidentally, for the record, I am tipping No Safety Car (currently 1.98 on Betfair).

Raikkonen at 6.5 (each way) for pole is tempting. He was four-tenths off Vettel but ahead of Bottas in third practice, and pretty good in both prior sessions (available at 8.6 on Betfair but obviously that’s just for pole). In the end, I decided against it. Very tempting, but Hamilton had a problem on his lap so we don’t know his true pace. I’m also very pushed for time so can’t spend as long thinking about it as I’d like.

That third practice session has set up qualifying very nicely indeed.

Morris Dancer