United Kingdom: post-race analysis 2017

Well, that was a race. The bet was red and fundamentally misjudged by me, (early tips were rather nicer), but the race itself had an interesting end and a final few laps that turned everything on its head.

On the formation lap Palmer’s brake-by-wire (BBW) system broke, and then his hydraulics went too. This prevented him from even reaching the pits/grid. Whilst he is being outdriven by his team mate, Palmer can’t really fight back when his car breaks down.

Off the line Vettel started poorly and was passed by Verstappen. He wrestled the place back only to lose it again (Raikkonen, who retained 2^nd, preventing both drivers behind him from taking ideal lines at different times).

This would prove race-defining.

Further down, Bottas made a great start, and Perez had an oddly poor one, dropping a few places. Kvyat reminded everyone of his new nickname (the Torpedo) by clumsily side-swiping and wiping out his team mate Sainz.

This brought out the safety car for a few laps.

After it left and racing resumed, Ricciardo, who had been slicing his way through the field, left the track and much ground, and had to do it all over again.

Vettel was clearly faster than Verstappen but couldn’t make it past the wily Dutchman. The highlight of the racing was their multi-lap battle, neither one giving an inch. In the end, Vettel pitted early (lap 15 of 51, or so) to change from supersoft to soft (save Bottas, all the top 10 started on the supersoft).

Verstappen pitted one lap later but emerged behind Vettel, the undercut working well.

Meanwhile, Hamilton had finished the Financial Times crossword and moved onto the Telegraph’s, pausing occasionally to check he was still 1^st and to wave to the crowd. Behind him, Raikkonen was also pulling away from the field but wasn’t in a position to challenge for the lead.

A big surprise was Hulkenberg, who was in 6^th and had kept the place on pace. He was aided by the Force Indias becoming stuck behind Magnussen (the Haas going on a very long first stint) but still drove perfectly, and the Renault seems to have much better pace than anticipated.

In news that shouldn’t be surprising, Alonso had to retire with a car failure (in retrospect, if I was going for a bland bet I should’ve gone for this).

Late on, the order was Hamilton, Raikkonen, Vettel and Bottas. Bottas being so close to Vettel meant that Ferrari couldn’t swap their cars even if they wanted to. The Mercedes has looked a bit faster all weekend, and on supersofts against old softs, the Finn passed the German. It seemed that would be that. Bottas was a second a lap faster than Raikkonen, but with an 8s gap and about 6 laps left, it wasn’t enough.

Then, with two laps to go, Raikkonen’s left front tyre went. He managed to return to the pits for fresh rubber but had dropped to 4^th, a cruel fate after driving a very good race.

But, to quote Khan Noonien Singh, the game isn’t over yet.

Vettel’s front left also had a puncture, and practically came apart. He also had time to pit, just, but dropped all the way down to 7^th. Raikkonen was restored, albeit in 3^rd, to the podium, in a final late twist of Ferrari torment and Mercedes delight.

Hamilton had the victory and Bottas a very impressive 2^nd. Verstappen (who was pitted late on before a puncture happened) was 4^th, ahead of Ricciardo.

Hulkenberg ended up 6^th, and scooped up a bevy of points for Renault. Ocon and Perez were a lacklustre 8^th and 9^th, unable to pass Magnussen for half the race or to close on Hulkenberg when the Dane wasn’t there. The final point was Massa’s, although Williams looked a bit slow all weekend.

Vandoorne finished 11^th, alas.

An interesting note is that the Ferrari has typically been better on its tyres than the Mercedes, but here the reverse was true.

Vettel’s poor start and losing a place to Verstappen cost him time early on and a strategy that ultimately pushed him down to 7^th. Had it been Raikkonen who had started poorly, a Hamilton-Vettel 1-2 seems eminently possible. But, it didn’t work out that way. Bottas also had a great race and I’m confounded by the length of his odds now. For the title he’s still available at 17 on Betfair. He’s 23 points off the lead in a three horse race. I’m not saying he should be anything other than third-placed in the odds, but I do think he’s being underestimated.

Drivers’:

Vettel 177

Hamilton 176

Bottas 154

Ricciardo 117

Ricciardo’s too far back. If Bottas won the next event and the other contenders had a DNF each, he’d lead the title race. He’s also the only one of the top three to have a DNF. I still think Vettel is likeliest to win, but a major factor is the behaviour of Mercedes. Do they stick to their no team orders approach, or throw their weight behind Hamilton?

Constructors’:

Mercedes 330

Ferrari 275

Red Bull 174

Force India 95

Williams 41

Toro Rosso 33

Haas 29

Renault 26

Sauber 5

McLaren 2

I think this is effectively done and dusted now (top four slots, at least). Raikkonen being 4^th of the top four has cost the Prancing Horse this title. The 8 points Hulkenberg bagged today have dragged Renault into contention with the tightly fought ground from 5^th to 8^th.

The next race is in a fortnight, and between now and then I’ll probably put up a mid-season review to look at the rather rubbish trend of recent bets following a great first race, and to assess how the racing is going and might continue to develop. Is Bottas really a contender? How will Mercedes handle the situation? Will Kubica make a return?

A weird race weekend. I finished ahead, but as only the article tips count, it was technically red. Hungary is in a fortnight (check the weather, if dry back No Safety Car), but, as I said, the mid-season review will likely emerge before then.

Morris Dancer