United Kingdom: pre-race 2017

Qualifying was thoroughly entertaining, and it was also nice the early Raikkonen bet (tipped each way at 26 for pole, but it lengthened, weirdly, to 34 after third practice) came off. Doesn’t count in the records and another early tip (Ricciardo podium at 3.5) looks eminently improbable, but still good stuff (the last early tip, Raikkonen podium at 3.3, is eminently layable at around 1.7).

Contrary to weather forecasts, it was drizzling quite a bit in Q1. Inters were the order of the day, as early runners on the slicks had all the grip of a lubricated Mister Blobby. Late on, Alonso, who had nothing to lose with his 30 place penalty, switched to slicks. He barely made it across the line to begin a hot lap, and was fastest of all, earning the rightful applause and cheers of the crowd. It was less happy for Ricciardo, who was initially fastest but whose turbo decided not to work any more. Joining Ricciardo in the drop zone were both Saubers, Magnussen and Stroll.

Things dried off rapidly in Q2 (not fully dry but steady enough for dry tyres). This meant Palmer, Kvyat and Alonso were knocked out, ahead of Sainz and Massa. Not a good day for Williams or Toro Rosso. Great day for Vandoorne, though, who was simply faster than his illustrious team mate (for perhaps the first time in qualifying).

The first runs in Q3 went pretty much as expected (Hamilton, Vettel, Bottas, Raikkonen). The second, however, were a bit surprising. Hamilton retained his dominance with a huge margin of victory (over half a second) but is currently under investigation for impeding Grosjean and could face a penalty. Raikkonen was the surprise, rising to 2nd (or pole, if Hamilton gets a grid penalty), two-tenths up on Vettel, who was furious about his position on the out lap. Bottas was only two-hundredths behind the German, but coupled with a five place grid penalty he’s going to be barely in the top 10. Big test to see if his title aspirations are the real deal or a pipe dream.

Behind, in No Man’s Land, was Verstappen. Miles faster than Hulkenberg (who was hugely impressive to qualify 6th) and a long way off Bottas, the Red Bull may be tastier in the race. It’d have a better time in the wet, but given the erratic nature of British weather who knows if the forecast will end up right.

Perez and Ocon are next, just a tenth or two between them, followed by Vandoorne and Grosjean (close together but some distance behind the Pink Panthers).

With Hamilton under investigation and the weather changing all the time, I’m loath to bet early. It has emerged, however, that Hamilton will receive no penalty at all. Got to say I disagree with that. He blocked Grosjean, apparently unwittingly, on a hot lap. This decision smacks of favouritism.

My initial betting thoughts were:
Ricciardo, top 6
Force India, double points

Ricciardo is only 2.5 for a top 6 finish. It’s entirely possible but those odds are tight given the pace of Force India etc and his own team’s dodgy reliability.

Force India are a measly 1.53 to double score. It’s very likely but those odds are too damned short for a double finish in the points.

So, as is traditional, I commenced a general perusal of the markets, and saw absolutely nothing that leapt out at me. I had planned to wait, both for the weather forecast and for the match bets, but it’s possible I might not have had the time to post this tomorrow.

So, instead I went for a boring tip. Perez, top 6, 1.83. He starts 6th, but is likely to lose a place to Bottas. However, I think he has the beating of Hulkenberg on pace, and Verstappen’s got a solid chance to break down. Not to mention potential Mercedes-Ferrari shenanigans off the line. Ricciardo’s a potential fly in the ointment. Not a dead cert but I think Perez has a good shot.

Let’s hope the race is green and great.


Morris Dancer

Comments

  1. I'm going braver than you. Perez has the 4th fastest car and has come 6th last year, 9th year before. I'm on the 16s for podium. I also like Ricciardo for a podium though. Hmmm

    Hamilton should win and I reckon Hulkenberg's good for points. This track is a bit like Barcelona and he was 6th there. Terrible odds but it gives me something to cheer for and must be a banker.

    Verstappen not to finish rounds off my uninspired picks.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Hey, Mr. M.

    Those are all credible. Hmm. Perez *might* be value at those odds (I bet pre-practice so only got Ricciardo podium at 3.5 but he was 11 last I checked). The rest all seem sound.

    More importantly, you *did* say you'd buy Traitor's Prize when I turned in a winning tip. Raikkonen at 26 for pole, each way, came off yesterday ;)

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I must confess to you that the "winning tip" condition was something of a Hareng Rouge. I had every intention of purchasing it regardless :)

      I have just paid now. Please don't spend it all at once.

      My very best wishes to you. I hope we both enjoy a profitable race.

      Delete
    2. Mr. M,

      Hareng Rouge? I have never heard of this, could you elaborate?

      I did wonder if you were simply up to mischief. Anyway, an 8 winner, effectively, is a good thing regardless. If rather fluky.

      Morris Dancer

      Delete
    3. Le hareng rouge is, en anglais, a red herring :)

      Delete

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