United Kingdom: pre-race 2017
Qualifying was
thoroughly entertaining, and it was also nice the early Raikkonen bet
(tipped each way at 26 for pole, but it lengthened, weirdly, to 34
after third practice) came off. Doesn’t count in the records and
another early tip (Ricciardo podium at 3.5) looks eminently
improbable, but still good stuff (the last early tip, Raikkonen podium at 3.3, is eminently layable at around 1.7).
Contrary to weather
forecasts, it was drizzling quite a bit in Q1. Inters were the order
of the day, as early runners on the slicks had all the grip of a
lubricated Mister Blobby. Late on, Alonso, who had nothing to lose
with his 30 place penalty, switched to slicks. He barely made it
across the line to begin a hot lap, and was fastest of all, earning
the rightful applause and cheers of the crowd. It was less happy for
Ricciardo, who was initially fastest but whose turbo decided not to
work any more. Joining Ricciardo in the drop zone were both Saubers,
Magnussen and Stroll.
Things dried off
rapidly in Q2 (not fully dry but steady enough for dry tyres). This
meant Palmer, Kvyat and Alonso were knocked out, ahead of Sainz and
Massa. Not a good day for Williams or Toro Rosso. Great day for
Vandoorne, though, who was simply faster than his illustrious team
mate (for perhaps the first time in qualifying).
The first runs in Q3
went pretty much as expected (Hamilton, Vettel, Bottas, Raikkonen).
The second, however, were a bit surprising. Hamilton retained his
dominance with a huge margin of victory (over half a second) but is
currently under investigation for impeding Grosjean and could face a
penalty. Raikkonen was the surprise, rising to 2nd (or
pole, if Hamilton gets a grid penalty), two-tenths up on Vettel, who
was furious about his position on the out lap. Bottas was only
two-hundredths behind the German, but coupled with a five place grid
penalty he’s going to be barely in the top 10. Big test to see if
his title aspirations are the real deal or a pipe dream.
Behind, in No Man’s
Land, was Verstappen. Miles faster than Hulkenberg (who was hugely
impressive to qualify 6th) and a long way off Bottas, the
Red Bull may be tastier in the race. It’d have a better time in the
wet, but given the erratic nature of British weather who knows if the
forecast will end up right.
Perez and Ocon are
next, just a tenth or two between them, followed by Vandoorne and
Grosjean (close together but some distance behind the Pink Panthers).
With Hamilton under
investigation and the weather changing all the time, I’m loath to
bet early. It has emerged, however, that Hamilton will receive no
penalty at all. Got to say I disagree with that. He blocked Grosjean,
apparently unwittingly, on a hot lap. This decision smacks of
favouritism.
My initial betting
thoughts were:
Ricciardo, top 6
Force India, double
points
Ricciardo is only 2.5
for a top 6 finish. It’s entirely possible but those odds are tight
given the pace of Force India etc and his own team’s dodgy
reliability.
Force India are a
measly 1.53 to double score. It’s very likely but those odds are
too damned short for a double finish in the points.
So, as is traditional,
I commenced a general perusal of the markets, and saw absolutely
nothing that leapt out at me. I had planned to wait, both for the
weather forecast and for the match bets, but it’s possible I might
not have had the time to post this tomorrow.
So, instead I went for
a boring tip. Perez, top 6, 1.83. He starts 6th, but is
likely to lose a place to Bottas. However, I think he has the beating
of Hulkenberg on pace, and Verstappen’s got a solid chance to break
down. Not to mention potential Mercedes-Ferrari shenanigans off the
line. Ricciardo’s a potential fly in the ointment. Not a dead cert
but I think Perez has a good shot.
Let’s hope the race
is green and great.
Morris Dancer
I'm going braver than you. Perez has the 4th fastest car and has come 6th last year, 9th year before. I'm on the 16s for podium. I also like Ricciardo for a podium though. Hmmm
ReplyDeleteHamilton should win and I reckon Hulkenberg's good for points. This track is a bit like Barcelona and he was 6th there. Terrible odds but it gives me something to cheer for and must be a banker.
Verstappen not to finish rounds off my uninspired picks.
Hey, Mr. M.
ReplyDeleteThose are all credible. Hmm. Perez *might* be value at those odds (I bet pre-practice so only got Ricciardo podium at 3.5 but he was 11 last I checked). The rest all seem sound.
More importantly, you *did* say you'd buy Traitor's Prize when I turned in a winning tip. Raikkonen at 26 for pole, each way, came off yesterday ;)
I must confess to you that the "winning tip" condition was something of a Hareng Rouge. I had every intention of purchasing it regardless :)
DeleteI have just paid now. Please don't spend it all at once.
My very best wishes to you. I hope we both enjoy a profitable race.
Mr. M,
DeleteHareng Rouge? I have never heard of this, could you elaborate?
I did wonder if you were simply up to mischief. Anyway, an 8 winner, effectively, is a good thing regardless. If rather fluky.
Morris Dancer
Le hareng rouge is, en anglais, a red herring :)
DeleteYou sly rascal.
Delete