Belgium: post-race analysis/mortem 2017
This morning I
mentioned elsewhere the Ladbrokes (exchange) odds of 2.2 on both
Force Indias to score. Naturally, this led the gods to show
ill-favour to them, causing a collision and preventing an otherwise
certain win. As for the Vettel bet, he came close, but no cigar. I’m
a little surprised the hedge at evens wasn’t matched, to be honest.
Off the line it was
formation flying at the sharp end. Alonso made many passes (a feat
not to be repeated due to a farcical power difference between the
McLaren and every other car) and the Force Indias slid back a little.
Ocon also made contact with Perez here, in the chaos and tumult of
the start, just before Eau Rouge.
The top two appeared to
be in a league of their own, and the Force Indias started making up a
little ground. Verstappen was going well, and then his engine conked
out.
All the top chaps
changed to soft tyres for the second stint, and about two-thirds into
the race commentary suggested Hamilton’s rear right tyre had a
blister, which sounded ominous. Meanwhile, Perez, who had passed
Grosjean and someone else on the straight but then failed to make the
corner and rejoined ahead, was given a 5s penalty. When the Force
Indias (on supersofts, unlike most others) came in for their second
pit stops, Perez was brought in first despite being behind Ocon. This
brought them together on the track, and the two stupidly collided
again just before Eau Rouge. It was a low odds chance by Ocon (then
behind) and Perez closed the door with his team mate facing a
concrete barrier. Dumb, and dangerous.
It also gave Perez a
puncture, knocked off part of Ocon’s front wing, scattered debris
across the track and brought out a safety car.
Ricciardo and the
Ferraris switched to fresh ultrasofts, the Mercedes going for softs,
and practically everyone pitted. On the restart Vettel got very
close, but perhaps exited the slipstream a little too early. I am
mildly surprised the hedge at evens wasn’t matched at this point.
Behind, Ricciardo brilliantly passed both Bottas and Raikkonen on the
straight, and Raikkonen (at the same time) passed Bottas.
Perez did manage to
emerge having crawled back to the pits with a rubber flail for a tyre
but had to retire (presume the lashing of his shredded rubber
buggered the suspension). Alonso and Wehrlein also retired (the
Spaniard fairly late on, the German early after detecting some sort
of problem).
Intriguing to consider
what would’ve happened had the safety car not emerged. If Hamilton
had had to pit then it could’ve been rather good for Vettel.
Interesting that the Mercedes was showing worse tyre wear on the soft
when, on the supersoft, it was Ferrari that suffered woe at
Silverstone.
Hamilton got the win,
Vettel right behind him and an impressive podium for Ricciardo in
3rd. Raikkonen and Bottas were next, with a good 6th
for Hulkenberg.
Grosjean and Massa were
next, benefiting from the civil war in Force India, then came Ocon
and Sainz.
Drivers:
Vettel 220
Hamilton 213
Bottas 179
I expect Mercedes to do
best at Monza, but the race after that is Singapore where Ferrari
should be strong and there may be a danger for the Silver Arrows of
being behind the Red Bulls as well. Finishing 5th today
hasn’t ended Bottas’ hopes but has reduced them drastically.
Teams:
Mercedes 392
Ferrari 348
Red Bull 199
Force India 103
Williams 45
Toro Rosso 40
Haas 35
Renault 34
McLaren 11
Sauber 5
I think the top four
are sorted but it’s very tight from 5th to 8th,
who are covered by just 11 points. I think Renault will climb up, the
question is how far.
An utterly red weekend.
The Vettel bet was ill-judged, the others were struck down by
misfortune. Perhaps I’ll manage to appease the gods for the Italian
Grand Prix, but I’ll have to sacrifice to them during a weekday,
because we’re off to Monza in just a week.
I do like Monza. A
proper, old school, fast circuit.
Morris Dancer
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