Malaysia: pre-race 2017
Ahead of qualifying I
offered no tip on it, but the ones I had a fuzzy idea about (before
declining due to lack of certainty over weather and necessarily
missing third practice) were the Ferraris. Vettel was just under 3
and Raikkonen was 13. As it turns out, they had quite contrasting
results from qualification.
In the first session of
qualifying there was a reliability failure. For the first time this
year, it afflicted Ferrari. Vettel lost power and though he managed
to limp back to the pits, his car could not be fixed in time. He will
start last, likely changing everything he can to take the penalties,
as it were, when they don’t alter his grid position. To Vettel’s
credit, he was calm throughout, thanked the engineers and was very
cool and relaxed when taking questions even whilst qualifying was
ongoing.
Unsurprisingly, both
Saubers exited at this stage, as did both Haas cars.
In the second session,
the Toro Rossos were slowest, but Gasly got very close to Sainz and
looked impressive throughout qualifying. Both Williams failed to
progress, as did Palmer. This meant both McLarens got through on
merit, as did both Force Indias and Hulkenberg. At this stage it was
very close between Hamilton, Raikkonen and Verstappen for pole.
And so it remained.
Hamilton did get the top slot on the grid, but only by half a tenth
ahead of Raikkonen. Can’t help but feel Vettel would’ve nabbed
pole, but there we are (had Hamilton’s engine not exploded last
year at this circuit, he would’ve retained his title). The Red
Bulls rather fell off, and though they have the second row to
themselves (Verstappen half a tenth ahead) they were almost half a
second off the first row.
Yet that isn’t as odd
as Bottas’ performance, which was lacklustre throughout. He ended
up 5th, seven-tenths off his team mate. Quite peculiar.
The rest of the top 10
was very tight, with places 6-10 covered by just three-tenths. Ocon
did well to be top of this group, just ahead of Vandoorne. Hulkenberg
was two-hundredths off the Dutchman, and five-hundredths ahead of
Perez. Alonso was last, which is interesting as McLaren brought lots
of chassis upgrades but only his car has them.
Heavy rain showers
remain possible for the race.
I did tip Verstappen
not to be classified yesterday at 3.75 (Ladbrokes, 3.8 with boost)
which means I may not offer a new tip. However, based on the grid,
ideas that sprung to mind were:
Lay Vettel podium
Ferrari top score (if
that market reappears)
Massa points
Raikkonen win each way
Vettel has a lay value
of 4.7 for a podium, which is so excessively long the 3.1 back for
him to get it looks more appealing.
The top scoring team
market again appears to be missing, alas.
Massa is evens for
points. That seems so-so. He’s a reliable driver with a reliable
car but this would depend, most likely, on some DNFs ahead and could
be scuppered by inclement weather.
Raikkonen is 3.75 to
win. Hmm. I’d hoped for something a bit longer.
No value jumping out, I
perused the markets and saw:
Raikkonen, fastest lap,
11 (Betfair Sportsbook)
Vettel, not to be
classified, 7 (Betfair Sportsbook)
Vettel, podium, 4.33
(Ladbrokes)
Raikkonen quite likes
racking up fastest laps and he’s in the joint fastest car. He also
doesn’t need to worry too much about thrashing the engine a bit
(unlike Hamilton who won’t want to incur penalties later in the
season).
I’m a bit surprised
the odds have fallen (8 to 6 for both Hamilton and Vettel, 8 being
usual but they’re 6 each for this race). Maybe due to the weather,
otherwise it seems inexplicable, certainly for Hamilton. Vettel’s
had reliability troubles and could get caught in congestion.
Incidentally, if you believe he’ll fail to finish lap 1, Ladbrokes
has a special for that at 21 (was 41 pre-weekend).
If Vettel does get
around ok and his engine doesn’t explode, he’s got a very fast
car, all the motivation in the world, and Malaysia is a wide circuit
which should ease overtaking. Long way to climb, but he could do it.
If it’s wet, that could help or hinder, but as he’s starting last
anyway it’s likely to be on the upside.
Of the above bets, the
most tempting is Raikkonen for fastest lap at 11 (Betfair
Sportsbook). I was in two minds about tipping it, but 11 is excessive
given Bottas is off the pace, Vettel will spend most of the race in
traffic, and Hamilton will want to conserve his engine.
So, two tips:
Verstappen, not to be
classified, 3.75 (Ladbrokes)
Raikkonen, fastest lap,
11 (Betfair Sportsbook), hedged at 3 (Betfair Exchange)
Race starts at 8am UK
time. May be wet early on, likely dry towards the end.
Morris Dancer
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