Singapore: pre-race

Qualifying was really rather enthralling, and produced a grid that might just tilt the title. Contrary to my expectations after Q2, Vettel produced a pair of stunning laps to grab pole position. Even better for him, he had both Red Bulls and his team mate ahead of Hamilton.

No surprise that the Saubers were slowest in qualifying, and Williams had an unsurprisingly poor day, also exiting at the first opportunity. Magnussen was the fastest of those departing in Q1.

In Q2, both Force Indias failed to progress. Grosjean was slowest, with Palmer the fastest not to advance and Kvyat middle of the pack.

At this stage, I thought a Red Bull front row was looking quite likely, and Hamilton was looking roughly on par with Vettel. However, the German had other ideas and stuck his Ferrari on pole (fastest on the first run and then improved on the second to extend his advantage). Verstappen and Ricciardo were very close and lined up behind, with Raikkonen 4^th. So Hamilton starts only 5^th, some way off his title rival. Bottas was 6^th, with Hulkenberg doing well to beat both McLarens.

Alonso and Vandoorne start 8^th and 9^th (their pace is good but a question mark must remain over their reliability), and Sainz wasn’t able to rise higher than 10^th.

That’s a tasty grid for the title fight.

The weather forecast during the day is for heavy rain showers, although it should be clear at night. It’s worth noting we’ve never had a wet race at this circuit so it’s unclear how good or bad drainage is, how much standing water there would be, and how bad the floodlights on water would be for drivers.

My initial betting thoughts were roughly:

Ferrari top score [if this market is up...]

Hulkenberg top 6

Sadly, the top score market was missing from Ladbrokes again. A shame, as I rather liked it.

Hulkenberg is just 2.37 to be top 6. I think he has a good chance but that’s a bit tight as it essentially relies upon helpful safety car timing or a breakdown ahead.

At this stage I’m rather regretting not backing the Ladbrokes Exchange Special of a double Red Bull podium at 5, but that ship has sailed…

Anyway, having exhausted my rather small list of initial thoughts, I perused the markets and found:

Vettel win *and* Hamilton not to get a podium, 2.4, Betfair Sportsbook

Ricciardo podium *and* Kvyat, Palmer, Verstappen all not classified, 67, Betfair Sportsbook

Verstappen, not to be classified, 4, Ladbrokes

Verstappen/Ricciardo, to lead lap 1, 5/14, Betfair Exchange

A fair spread of bets. One advantage to having little time yesterday was seeing the #Oddsonthat market on Betfair Sportsbook, which I don’t think is up when I bet on Saturday evenings.

Vettel has a great record of converting poles to victories and the Singapore Grand Prix is historically won (about 7/9 or suchlike) from pole. I also think Hamilton will struggle to get a podium given he’s got fast Red Bulls and Raikkonen ahead of him. However, and it’s a big however, the Red Bulls are very tasty and that doesn’t make this a dead cert for Vettel by any stretch. I do think this is a better bet than just backing him for the win at 1.6 or suchlike, though.

Palmer has a 5/13 DNF rate [38%], Kvyat has 4 DNFs [31%], Verstappen has 6 [46%]. The odds on all having a DNF, just based on past figures (which are not necessarily a guide to the future), is about 5.5%, about one in 18. For the bet to come off, Ricciardo also needs a podium. He’d be helped by Verstappen failing, but does have a 3/13 DNF rate himself. That’s still a 4.1% chance, about one in 24. Although it’s risky, the numbers do actually stack up.

The Verstappen not to be classified bet is pretty straightforward. He has an almost 50% chance of not being classified, but odds of 4.

The Ferraris have been somewhat tardy off the line relative to their immediate rivals at some races. Not far to the first corner, but the Red Bulls will be hungry for the lead. Quite difficult to guess whether such a bet is worthwhile or not.

Processional races (Singapore, Monaco etc) can be difficult to bet on. In this case, I’ve decided to back Verstappen not to be classified at 4, and the slightly unexpected Ricciardo podium and Kvyat, Palmer and Verstappen not to be classified bet at 67. [As usual with my records I’ll note the theoretical P&L for £10 stakes, but in reality I’ll be putting less on the latter bet, not least because my Betfair account is anaemic these days].

Two tips:

Verstappen, not to be classified, 4 (Ladbrokes)

Ricciardo to get a podium, Verstappen, Kvyat and Palmer not to be classified, 67 (Betfair Sportsbook)

Let’s hope Ricciardo wins and there are at least three early retirements. This race could be very significant for the title.

Morris Dancer