Japan: pre-race 2017
Housekeeping, first up.
As well as the Sainz penalty, the world was shocked to learn Alonso
has a massive one too, and Palmer likewise. Smaller five place
penalties for gearbox changes afflict the Finnish pair as well.
My Raikkonen bet proved
a significant misjudgement. The Mercedes had a substantial pace
advantage, far more than I thought likely, and Vettel was only third
fastest (he’ll start 2nd because of Bottas’ penalty).
Raikkonen crashed in third practice, hence the gearbox change and
penalty, and he seemed thoroughly on the back foot throughout
qualifying. It seemed I significantly underestimated the premium on
straight line speed at Suzuka, which also affected the Red Bull
performance. On the plus side, straight line speed being super helps
the race bet.
First session was most
notable for a snap of oversteer that helped introduce Grosjean to the
barrier with just over a minute remaining, bringing out a red flag
and ending the session. This was especially irksome to (besides
Grosjean) Stroll, who appeared to have been impeded by Perez at the
final chicane [no penalty ensued]. Unsurprisingly, both Saubers left at this stage, as
did Grosjean, Gasly, and Stroll.
This clearly isn’t a
Toro Rosso sort of circuit, with Sainz slowest in Q2. Ahead of him
but also leaving were Palmer, Magnussen, Hulkenberg and Vandoorne, who
was edged out by Alonso (a tiny margin between team mates).
In Q3, as per the rest of
the qualifying, Hamilton was in a league of one. Behind him it was a
bit tighter, but Bottas got a tenth and a bit ahead of Vettel, with
Ricciardo over half a second further back. Verstappen was hot on the
heels of his team mate but Raikkonen was a couple of tenths slower
and will start in a rather disappointing 11th. Ocon was
just ahead of Perez (I’m sure they’ll have a fun start together),
Massa could only manage 9th but was some way faster than
Alonso.
The counterpoint to
straight line speed being so lovely in qualifying is that the
enhanced engine mode that Mercedes, in particular, enjoy can’t be
used throughout the race due to reliability/fuel consumption
concerns. Relatively, Ferrari will be a bit quicker and Red Bull two
bits quicker.
The weather forecast is
for it to be dry throughout.
My early, and sleepy,
betting thoughts were:
Bottas podium
Bottas is 2.5 for a
podium (3 on Betfair Exchange). Hmm. Somewhat tempting but not
outstanding.
I waited quite a while
to see if the interesting #Oddsonthat market on Betfair Sportsbook
appeared (caught this by chance a few races ago when the pre-race
ramble was unusually late). It didn't. Anyway, my traditional perusal found the
following:
Verstappen, not to be
classified, 4.5, Ladbrokes
Double Williams points
finish, 5, Ladbrokes
Over 16.5 classified
finishers, 2.5, Betfair Sportsbook
No Safety Car, 2.5,
Ladbrokes
The Verstappen bet,
again, is tempting simply based on season statistics. He has a 7/15
DNF rate. But is 4.5 not to be classified. The two just seem utterly
out of kilter. That said, the last three races at Suzuka have seen
retirement numbers of 2, 3 and 0 so it’s not much a car-breaker in
recent times.
Stroll has tended to
qualify badly, but has a reasonable record over recent races.
Misfortune/misjudgement which dogged him early on has largely gone
and he’ll start around 14th. However, his car is faster
than his qualifying suggested, as that was hampered by Perez
trundling about through the final chicane. However, I’d probably be
more inclined to go for the 15 bet (if you didn’t already back the
17 I tipped yesterday) on all Mercedes-powered cars scoring. If both
Williams do, there’s a 90-95% chance the Mercedes and Force Indias
will also be top 10 (assuming Perez and Ocon don’t attack each
other off the line).
With that Japanese
record of reliability in mind, the 2.5 on 17 or more finishers seems
tempting. However, McLaren could easily despite to expire at any
moment, and that, coupled with the potential for lap 1 shenanigans
makes me reluctant to back this.
The forecast is dry,
and the VSC means safety cars should be less common, especially on
circuits with low DNF rates. However, I’m concerned that recently
(Azerbaijan standing out) the people running the show seem to like
throwing out an unnecessary safety car to artificially manufacture
drama.
The Bottas podium and
Verstappen DNF bets are the ones that seem most interesting. However,
in the last six races or so Verstappen’s only had, I think, two
DNFs, one reliability, the other the Singapore smash. So, decided
against backing either.
That leaves just
yesterday’s tip:
All Mercedes-powered
cars to score, 17, Ladbrokes Exchange (under specials) [since reduced
to 15 but still worth it, I think].
For those who backed
the 17 for all Mercedes-powered cars to score points, they’re
eminently layable on Betfair (at the time of writing 3.35 for Stroll, evens for Massa, less
for Force India). My main concern is Williams rather than the others.
Force India is reliable and fast. I’d guess it’s about a 7 shot
now, give or take, but is still up on the Ladbrokes Exchange under
specials for 15, which feels quite long.
Annoyingly, the race
starts at 6am. I may well listen to it on the radio then catch the
highlights (which I think are on oddly late, around 3pm on Channel
4).
Let us hope it’s a
marvellous day for Mercedes.
Morris Dancer
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