Malaysia: post-race analysis 2017

The last race in Malaysia was a very entertaining one. Rather a shame we’re losing it and retaining the processional tedium of Monaco, Azerbaijan and Singapore, but there we are. From a betting perspective, a bit wonky. The Raikkonen bet was voided and the Verstappen bet failed, so down one stake.

The drama started before the race began. Raikkonen’s car was looking iffy (it seems the high temperatures were affecting the turbo, similar to the problem that ruined Vettel’s qualifying). Despite efforts to mend it, first on the grid and then in the garage, the Finn was unable to start the race.

Off the line, Ricciardo lost a place to Bottas, Vandoorne climbed significantly (up to 5^th), and Vettel picked up a few places.

Ocon was caught in a Perez-Massa sandwich (not really his fault, or anyone’s). He ended up needing an early pit stop, which rather compromised his race.

At the sharper end, the Red Bulls were right on the tails of the Mercedes. Verstappen didn’t merely keep pace with Hamilton, he passed him and then proceeded to drive off into the sunset. Ricciardo had a trickier time passing Bottas (for 3^rd) but when he did the Aussie likewise pulled out a significant lead with little apparent effort.

Further down the field, Vettel (who had started on the soft tyre, unlike almost everyone else who had begun on the supersoft) was picking off other drivers one-by-one, aided by most of them pitting before him. His actual pace was outstanding, making it all the sadder that woe afflicted him in qualifying and his team mate before the race began.

He did get bottled up behind Bottas but managed to pass the Finn through the pit stops, the German’s occurring exactly halfway through the race.

Further down the field, Alonso passed the weaving Magnussen (who didn’t leave much room), and complained on the radio that Hulkenberg was right about him [Magnussen]. Palmer spun, lost places, then was ahead of Sainz when the two came together and Palmer spun again. Whether karma or woe, Sainz shortly thereafter suffered a reliability failure and became only the second man to fail to be classified.

At the feisty end, Ricciardo was closing on Hamilton, but not quickly enough to avoid being caught by the very fast Vettel (who was on the supersoft against the Aussie’s soft). Vettel was unable to pass, though, as he only had a lap or two before his tyre lost peak performance, and one of these was compromised by Alonso letting Ricciardo through under blue flags but, briefly, holding up Vettel. The German had a single genuine overtaking opportunity but Ricciardo was able to fend him off. Nevertheless, to rise from last to 4^th on merit, with no helpful safety car or wet weather intervening, speaks of a great drive but also that Ferrari, whilst fragile this weekend, probably had the best car.

I was surprised that Red Bull was notably faster than the Mercedes, and although it was a red result, it was nevertheless great to see Verstappen notch his second career win with a flawless drive. Ricciardo got 3^rd, making it a very good day for Red Bull (and the win also helped Vettel due to the seven point gap between 1^st and 2^nd).

Hamilton was never able to close on Verstappen and may be relieved he got 2^nd and had Ricciardo between himself and Vettel. Having started 1^st and 19^th, the title rivals finished 2^nd and 4^th, and Hamilton’s lead was extended by 6 points. Bottas, meanwhile, was slow, finishing 44 seconds behind his team mate (with 56 laps, almost a second a lap slower).

Perez got 6^th, and his team mate managed to grab 10^th for yet another double points finish for Force India. Vandoorne drove impressively all weekend to get 7^th, (Alonso was 11^th). Stroll and Massa were 8^th and 9^th, so useful points for Williams.

Gasly drove an assured debut race and finished 14^th.

As an aside, Vettel got the fastest lap, four-tenths faster than his closest rivals.

So, a red weekend. The Raikkonen bet was at least credible given his team mate got the fastest lap, but there’s not much that can be done about a DNS. Shame the Verstappen bet didn’t work out, but from a racing and title perspective it was a thoroughly entertaining result.

Drivers:

Hamilton 281

Vettel 247

A 34 point gap with five races remaining is significant. It’s not impossible to overhaul, but the odds are strongly against it. If Vettel wins every remaining race and Hamilton is 2^nd, that would mean the German wins by 1 point. However, Red Bull’s performance in Malaysia means that they can be a factor in this. Who that might help remains to be seen.

Constructors:

Mercedes 503

Ferrari 385

Red Bull 270

Force India 133

Williams 65

Toro Rosso 52

Renault 42

Haas 37

McLaren 23

Sauber 5

Top four remain nailed on, and I’m beginning to think Williams will hold onto 5^th. Renault need to make some headway, and Haas have been a bit poor lately too.

The next race we’re off to, next weekend, is Japan. Often home to great races and wet weather, Ferrari must make up ground.

Morris Dancer