Mexico: pre-race 2017

Gasly didn’t run in qualifying due to engine issues.

Vandoorne had a 35 place penalty, with a 20 place penalty for Alonso. Gasly might be miffed, but with Toro Rosso having a Honda engine next year he might have to get used to this sort of thing.

Obviously Gasly didn’t escape the first session, and the other four who joined him were the two Saubers and the two Haas cars (which were slower than the Saubers). Pretty weak pace from the American team.

In Q2 there was more woe for Toro Rosso as Hartley’s engine failed. The McLarens didn’t run due to their mighty penalties and with Hartley also out by default there were only two ‘proper’ exits. Unfortunately for Williams, both their cars dropped out here, Massa being the faster.

And so to Q3, which everybody expected to be very close. And so it proved to be. Verstappen put in a great lap on his first run, but was unable to match Vettel’s second attempt. The German starts on pole, with the Dutchman alongside him. Having been outqualified by two different cars, Mercedes at least have the second row to themselves, with Hamilton ahead of Bottas. Raikkonen was close behind, and he has Ocon alongside him. Ricciardo could manage only 7^th, a full nine-tenths off his team mate. Engine problem? Setup issue? It’s too big a margin to be normal. Hulkenberg is next, just one slot but three-tenths ahead of his new team mate Sainz, with Perez 10^th and four-tenths off Ocon. At least some space between the Pink Panthers reduces the chances of an immediate collision.

An interesting grid. There was practically nothing between Hamilton and Bottas, but most other team mates had sizeable gaps in Q3. I expect the Red Bull to be very good in the race. Surprised Ricciardo qualified so badly given the pace that’s in the car (Verstappen does have an upgraded engine, but the margin is enormous just for that). This is particularly odd given the lap is a short one.

The race is likely to be a one stop for everyone, with the ultrasoft tyres capable of 35 odd laps. Overtaking’s tricky too.

Longest run to the first corner of the year (eight hundred and seventy-five yards). So, screw up the start and you’ll be passed by everyone and his cat. Probably not good for Raikkonen. Tastier for Alonso.

My initial betting thoughts were:

Ricciardo, podium

Force India, double points

Hamilton, win

Ricciardo is 4.6 for a podium. However, he does start 7^th, it’s expected to be a one stop race and the circuit is apparently very tricky for overtaking. I do think he’ll make ground anyway, but that much *might* just be a step too far. Disappointing qualifying, even with engine disparity, given his team mate is on the front row. If he starts well, it could be the boost he needs, but there are quite a few cars between him and a podium. More concerning, I checked the qualifying times and in every session he was substantially off the pace, so it wasn’t just bad laps in Q3.

Force India are 1.5 for double points. That’s tight. And yet, their car is very reliable and both drivers are quick (Perez’s poor qualifying was a bit of a surprise). The straight will be the prime area of overtaking, which also suits the car pretty well. On the other hand, Perez starts 10^th. If they were 6^th and 8^th it’d be rather more tempting.

Hamilton is 4.33 for the win. It’s certainly credible, but the Mercedes tends to be slower in the race than qualifying. Not long enough to tempt.

Just an aside, but it’s odd that the 8^th and 9^th men (the Renaults) are 1001 each to win. Ocon, in 6^th, is likewise. Remembering Azerbaijan, I’m a little tempted to throw down 50p on that.

No F1 specials on the Ladbrokes exchange again, which is a shame because there were sometimes interesting markets there.

Anyway, I perused the markets and saw:

Vandoorne to beat Alonso, 3.5

First lap leader, Hamilton, 9 (Bottas is 25)

Bottas, podium, 2.66

The Vandoorne bet is based on the same lines as the one I raised but didn’t tip last time out. Namely, Alonso’s car breaks a lot. So Vandoorne will likely win by default.

The first lap leader bet is based on the long run to the first corner and the Mercedes’ dominance on top speed. Against it is that Hamilton’s engine has been hesitating throughout the weekend, and if power cuts out at the wrong time he will go a long way backwards.

Bottas has been good all weekend, unlike many of his recent performances, and his car appears rock solid.

Nothing, frankly, leaps out at me.

Some extra suggestions, from Mr. Sandpit, in another place (my thoughts in brackets afterwards):

Hamilton 1.12 to finish the race - he’s 17 from 17 so far this season. [Likely to come off but the very short odds aren’t to my taste]

Vettel to finish the race LAY 1.25 [Having backed something similar last race, not sure about this. The gremlins appear to have gone]

Verstappen 3.6 to win [Sound, especially each way, but an early, pre-weekend tip of mine was Verstappen at 5 to win so it’s already covered]

Safety car 1.55 - possibly just about value at that price but looking for 1.66-1.75 [Agree with Mr. Sandpit’s summary]

Lead first lap Verstappen at 4 and Hamilton at 8. [I was thinking of looking at this. The long run to the first corner makes it easier to come from further back so I’d probably look at Hamilton].

An awkward weekend, then, as I don’t have a particular bet in mind. But, as I offer a tip on every race and have done since the latter part of 2009, a tip must be found. I have put tiny sums on Sainz, Ocon and Hulkenberg each way to win at 1001 (very unlikely but the odds are just ridiculous and they’re top of the pile if the top six explode) but as I’m not putting a proper stake on that’s not a tip (not to mention it’d really bugger up a profit/loss graph if it came off).

To that end:

Hamilton, lap 1 leader, 9 (Betfair Exchange)

Vandoorne to beat Alonso, 3.5 (Ladbrokes)

The astute amongst you will have noticed the former is also Mr. Sandpit’s suggestion.

Will the McLarens explode? Will the top six simultaneously fail, giving me the best betting win since the 2016 Spanish Grand Prix? Will the Force Indias smash into one another?

We shall find out, from 7pm tonight.

Morris Dancer