USA: pre-race 2017

Bit odd having qualifying on at the unusually late hour of 10pm. In broad terms, it went as expected, but I was a bit surprised after the early running that Vettel did as well as he did.

In the first session both Saubers left the stage (Ericsson doing well to get the 16^th best time). Magnussen was slowest, Stroll also failed to escape (apparently he had a problem with electrical energy and, in this era, that effectively holes you below the waterline) and Hartley, in his first race, got 18^th.

In the second session, Hulkenberg was ‘slowest’ but that was mostly due to the fact he didn’t run (not much point with such a large grid penalty). Grosjean also struggled, although he was lucky to make it through after Stroll had impeded him in Q1 (the three place grid penalty the Canadian got won’t stop him starting higher on the grid than he qualified, likewise for Magnussen who blocked Perez).Vandoorne was a bit slower than expected, and ahead of him was Kvyat and Massa.

All session long this had looked like Hamilton’s to lose, but lose it he did not. The final gap was a couple of tenths, but I think Vettel will be happy to be starting on the front row at least. Behind the front row it’s immensely tight, with the times from 3^rd to 5^th covered by 0.009s. Bottas was that far ahead of Ricciardo and Raikkonen, the latter two setting identical times.Verstappen was 6^th fastest but will be shunted well down the order due to penalties (he’ll start on the supersoft tyre, unlike the other fast chaps who’ll all be on the ultrasoft).

Ocon’s next up, and he had a very good day, half a second ahead of his team mate (Perez qualified 10^th). Sainz got off to a flying start in his new team, sticking the Renault on 8^th (7^th effectively due to the Verstappen penalty), and Alonso is behind his compatriot. Pretty good for McLaren, particularly given fast corners and the straight really helped Mercedes in qualifying (due to the better engine mode) and is usually a silver bullet to the hopes of McLaren at a circuit. In the race, I wonder if he could rise up the order.

Recap of penalties:

Verstappen – 15 places

Hartley – 25 places

Hulkenberg – 20 places

Vandoorne – 5 places

[New] Magnussen – 3 places (ironically, this means he’ll be promoted to 18^th)

[New] Stroll – 3 places (again, starts higher than he qualified)

The weather forecast for the race is dry throughout.

My initial thinking on the betting front is:

Ricciardo, podium

Sainz, top 6

Ricciardo is 2.5 to be on the podium with Betfair Exchange. I think that’s pretty reasonable. The Mercedes advantage from qualifying will be diminished in the race because they can’t run it for long, and Ferrari’s reliability has gone a bit wonky. May well back this.

Sainz is 3 (again, Betfair Exchange) to be top 6. Hmm. Maybe a little tight. Also, the Renault’s a little unreliable, he’s facing a charging Verstappen, Alonso’s a threat, and Perez too.

According to the ancient customs and traditions of Morris, I then perused the markets to see if any value leapt out at me. A few potential bets raised their heads:

Lay Bottas, podium, 1.62 (Betfair Exchange)

Hartley to beat Kvyat, 6.5 (Ladbrokes)

Sainz, points, 1.5 (Ladbrokes/Betfair Exchange)

Alonso, points, 1.89 (Ladbrokes Exchange) – 3/5 recent DNFs

Alonso, not to be classified, 2.75 (Betfair Sportsbook)

Behind the front two, it’s very tight. Of these three, (Bottas, Ricciardo, Raikkonen), I think Bottas is worst placed, despite starting at the front of the trio. This is because his qualifying advantage of enhanced engine mode will matter far less in the race, and even with it he was only a tiny margin faster. Not only that, but his performances recently have been lacklustre. This is effectively an alternative bet to the Ricciardo approach, but, on balance, I prefer backing the Aussie to laying the Finn, I think.

Hartley starts far below Kvyat and this is his first race in F1. However, he is an experienced driver and hasn’t put a foot wrong thus far. More importantly, Kvyat has a pretty high DNF rate. It’s that (about 5/14) which makes the odds of 6.5 for Hartley look quite appealing.

Sainz seems nailed on for points if his car finishes. On the other hand, the Renault can be a bit fragile and 1.5 is short.

Alonso also looks good for points, and 1.89 is a bit tempting. However, he’ll face a stern challenge from the likes of Perez and Verstappen. I checked his DNF rate in the last five races, expecting it to be quite good, but in fact he’s failed to finish in three of them. Which led me to…

With a 60% recent DNF rate, Alonso not to be classified at 2.75 looks quite tempting. There’s also 5 available for Vandoorne to beat him, which is interesting. The potential pitfalls are if Vandoorne DNFs first, or if both finish, in which case the Spaniard is very likely to be some way ahead.

There are two tips this race:

Ricciardo, podium, 2.5 (Betfair Exchange)

Alonso, not to be classified, 2.75 (Betfair Sportsbook)

The race starts at 8pm, so the post-race ramble will be up tomorrow.

Morris Dancer