Brazil: post-race analysis
A very eventful start,
and congratulations to Mr. B on backing Vettel to lead lap 1.
Annoyingly, of the bets I shortlisted the only ones that didn’t
come off were the long shot and the one I actually backed (Ricciardo
spun on lap 1 and could easily have crashed out... but didn’t). To
make matters worse, between 3 and 4pm Betfair decided to void my bet
on Hamilton not reaching the podium (which came off). My initial
attempt to contact them didn’t work as the site kept timing out.
Before the race started
there was some concern at Ferrari over the electronics, definitely on
Raikkonen’s car and maybe Vettel’s too. Happily, this seemed not
to cause a serious problem.
At the start, Vettel
just about managed to get ahead of Bottas thanks to a better second
phase off the line. Meanwhile, Ricciardo spun off-track and came very
close to crashing out. But he didn’t. The swine.
Grosjean lost control
slightly which unfortunately coincided with Ocon passing him on the
outside, putting the Force India out (Grosjean was able to recover,
but I think he subsequently got a rather unnecessary time penalty).
Magnussen and Vandoorne also tangled with one another and failed to
complete the first lap.
Contrary to my
expectations, reliability thereafter was actually pretty damned good,
with only Hartley going on to retire, about halfway through the race.
Anyway, first lap
shenanigans brought out the safety car for several laps as the track
was cleared of debris.
At the sharp end,
Vettel was just eking out a lead over Bottas. Verstappen looked
faster than Raikkonen but couldn’t pass.
Hamilton and Ricciardo,
however, could pass, and were carving their way through the field
with aplomb (admittedly, with much faster cars than almost everyone
else).
An intriguing battle
which got less coverage than it perhaps deserved was that Massa
managed to squeak ahead of Alonso and the Spaniard was unable to pass
him. This duel continued all race long and, towards the end, Perez
was right behind Alonso too. The three finished nose-to-tail, Massa
doing very well to keep 7th ahead of his old team mate. At
his final Brazilian Grand Prix, Alonso was not faster him.
Mercedes pitted Bottas
first, and though Ferrari reacted on the following lap it very nearly
stole the victory. Vettel emerged barely a car’s length ahead and
for a few corners Bottas, with tyres up to temperature, looked very
feisty. However, once things settled Vettel soon pulled out a
significant gap and was untroubled by the Finn any more.
Except for Hamilton and
Ricciardo rising through the field, it was pretty much as you were.
Hamilton passed Verstappen, who was struggling on his tyres, and
should’ve passed Raikkonen late on. However, the Briton locked up
at the critical time, and on the subsequent lap his supersofts,
Raikkonen being on softs, had just lost the critical edge of
performance. He was quicker but not so fast as to be able to effect a
pass. Raikkonen held on for another podium.
Vettel got the victory
which, apart from the pit stop, never seemed in doubt. Bottas got
2nd, with Raikkonen ensuring two Prancing Horses on the
podium.
Hamilton got 4th,
and whilst 3rd was possible that’s still a great result
from the pit lane. Verstappen, despite a late pit stop to get fresh
tyres and the fastest lap, was 5th, right ahead of his
team mate.
Massa, Alonso and Perez
finished 7th to 9th, with Hulkenberg getting
the final point, ahead of his team mate. That will be a very
interesting intra-team battle to watch next year.
I shortlisted four tips
(one a long shot) and two came off. The long shot and the one I
actually backed didn’t, which was a bit disheartening. And, as I
mentioned, Betfair voided the 2.4 on Hamilton not to get a podium,
for reasons that I have yet to ascertain. Luck’s meant to shake out
over a season but it does feel like 50/50s have tended to go against
me this year.
On early bets, I
totally misjudged the relative pace of Red Bull, so that’s on me.
I’ll be glad when
this season’s over.
Morris Dancer
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