Brazil: pre-race 2017

A very interesting qualifying session. Bottas got pole, which is nice, but Raikkonen couldn’t quite make the top 2, which was a little bit displeasing given his odds were ridiculously long (22/1 at one point).

Congratulations to Mr. Sandpit, who is on Bottas at 13.5 for the win (hedgeable at just over evens right now).

In the first part of qualifying, Hamilton made a rare mistake, the rear of his car getting away from him and leading to him crashing out immediately. In less surprising news, both Saubers failed to make it out, and, yet again, Stroll also failed to progress. Gasly, who has penalties anyway, was another who exited at this stage.

In second practice Hartley, who has penalties as well, didn’t bother running, which is understandable. Both Haas drivers didn’t go any further, and nor did Vandoorne. Surprisingly, Ocon could only register the 11^th fastest time (although he’ll be promoted to 10^th due to Ricciardo’s penalty).

Tiny spots of rain came down in Q3 but not sufficient to make any real difference. It was very close at the sharp end between the Ferraris and Bottas. Vettel was fastest on his first run but got pipped by the Mercedes driver by less than half a tenth. Raikkonen was a couple of tenths off the pace which was a little surprising.

Although Verstappen was next up he was nearly half a second off the slower Finn, and four-tenths faster than his team mate, who will take a 10 place penalty and start 15^th. Perez and Alonso were next, the Spaniard two-hundredths slower than the Mexican. If the Honda engine holds up, Alonso could be on for a good race.

Hulkenberg and Sainz came next, the German a tenth faster than his new, rather more competitive, team mate. I do wonder if their engines will last, though. Finally, (again), we have Massa, whose pace was about a second faster than his team mate.

The forecast is for it to be dry and warm. I wonder if the heat might harm the Ferraris. We also have a couple of drivers out of place, with Ricciardo 15^th and Hamilton 20^th or starting from the pit lane. Brazil often has carnage at the first corner, which is an interesting and tricky turn.

Just looking at the grid, my first thoughts on betting were:

Verstappen podium

Vettel win

Ricciardo top 6

Verstappen is 1.9 for a podium. Not enough given the cars ahead of him and reliability question marks over Renault (ironic, though, that he’s recently suffered least from them).

Vettel is just 2.5 to win. Entirely credible but the odds aren’t great.

Ricciardo is 1.4 for the top 6. The least tempting of them all. Whilst he may well get it he’ll have to pass Williams/Force India which may prove difficult, he’s had bad reliability recently (one of my early tips was backing him to DNF) and he starts 15^th, which is a great place to get caught out by someone else’s accident off the start.

Upon perusing the markets, I found:

First lap leader, Vettel, 5 (Betfair Sportsbook)

Group Betting, Group B Winner, Alonso, 3.75 (Ladbrokes)

Ricciardo, not to be classified, 5 (Ladbrokes)

Perez, top 6, 2.2 (Ladbrokes)

#Oddsonthat market on Betfair Sportsbook

Hamilton not to get a podium 2.4

Vettel and Verstappen podium, Hamilton top 6, Force India double points, 5

Vettel win, Hulkenberg/Ocon/Perez points, under 15.5 classified finishers, 15

Sainz/Hartley/Hulkenberg to not be classified, Verstappen on the podium, 41

Ricciardo podium, Alonso/Grosjean/Vandoorne not to be classified, 101

Lots there to contemplate, although no single bet leaps out and demands to be backed.

Raikkonen has tended to go backwards rather than forwards off the line, and Vettel had a very good start in Mexico. I think it’ll be him or Bottas, but obviously that sort of bet is a bit luck of the draw. The odds are reasonably good.

Alonso’s group includes Perez, Hulkenberg and Sainz. The Renaults have had worse reliability in recent races, and Alonso typically makes up ground off the start. My concern, as well as his possibly weak reliability, is that he’ll be murdered on the straight by Perez, and the Force India’s only real weakness is the other Force India colliding with it. Tempting but can’t back it.

Ricciardo has failed to be classified in the last few races. He’s also in a nice place to be crashed into going into the challenging first corner. For that matter, Sainz and Hulkenberg at 3.5 each are also a bit tempting.

Perez starts 5^th, has a car that’s very reliable and is very good at keeping tyres going. That matters here because it’s a toss up between a one and two stop race. Ricciardo and Hamilton will be in significantly faster cars but start further back. There’s also something of a reliability question mark over the Red Bulls/Renault engines as well as the three cars immediately behind him on the grid. All that said, 2.2 aren’t huge odds. But they may be good odds.

Usually, due to timing, I miss the #Oddsonthat markets so it was a nice surprise to see them up.

After checking, it turned out Hamilton was 2.4 not to get a podium, but, on the exchange, 3.3 to get one. So I backed both, of course. Unfortunately, the #Oddsonthat market instantly vanished, so this can’t count as a tip (shame as it’s a guaranteed winner).

Vettel and Verstappen both getting on the podium is credible, as is Hamilton finishing top 6 and both Force Indias scoring. However, that’s quite a few contingencies for 5, and there is a question mark over both Verstappen’s reliability and the Red Bull’s pace. It’s probable but not certain Hamilton will be top 6. Too many things to tempt at those odds.

Vettel win, Hulkenberg/Ocon/Perez points, under 15.5 classified finishers, 15. This is more tempting. On pace, there’s every chance Vettel can beat Bottas, and the three chaps in question could score, although Hulkenberg’s had shaky reliability recently. At least five retirements are required, but with engine dodginess from Honda and Renault, that’s at least plausible, if not probable. The main potential pitfall seems to be Hulkenberg. Worth considering.

Sainz/Hartley/Hulkenberg to not be classified, Verstappen on the podium, 41. Given the dubiousness of Renault engines recently, this is also quite intriguing. Verstappen getting on the podium is probably the least likely contingency. As well as reliability (and he has essentially the same engine as the chaps who need to DNF) there’s a pace question mark. On the other hand, he tends to go forward rather than backwards off the line, unlike Raikkonen, who starts 3^rd and immediately ahead of him. Hmm.

Last and longest, we have Ricciardo podium, Alonso/Grosjean/Vandoorne not to be classified, 101. Tasty idea but Ricciardo’s unlikely to get on the podium, and I’d be slightly surprised if all three of those drivers failed to finish. Mind you, that’s why the odds are long. But I’m not especially tempted.

Of all the above, the most interesting are:

Vettel, lap 1 leader, 5

Ricciardo, not to be classified, 5

Perez, top 6, 2.2

Sainz/Hartley/Hulkenberg to not be classified, Verstappen on the podium, 41

Quite tricky to decide between them. I think Ricciardo not to be classified at 5 offers the best value. Those odds are available both on Ladbrokes and Betfair Sportsbook. [NB this is almost identical to the 5.25 early tip on Ricciardo not to be classified, not quite sure how I’ll resolve that in the records as yet].

The grid’s poised intriguingly and Interlagos is perhaps the best circuit on the calendar, so we should be in for a cracking race. The start is at 4pm UK time.

Morris Dancer