Australia: post-race analysis 2018

It remains a finely balanced philosophical debate as to whether it’s better to lose a bet to misjudgement or plain bad luck. Today, I was unlucky. The safety car only emerged once, and only because of the second Haas pit stop failure (itself a freak occurrence), so the no safety car bet should’ve come off. (That would’ve kept the massive gap between the top few and Ricciardo, making the Raikkonen fastest lap bet likelier to come off).

However, the race was entertaining, and I managed to wake up in time for it. And betting is inherently risky, with luck sometimes favouring stupid bets and damning good ones.

Off the line, it was mostly formation flying, with the unusual exception of Verstappen slipping back. He appeared to simply forget about the Haas, and Magnussen got him at the first corner. Raikkonen had a good look at Hamilton but couldn’t quite pass the Briton.

From there, Hamilton, Raikkonen and Vettel began to inexorably pull out a lead on Magnussen et al., with the top three soon 10s and more ahead of the rest. The gaps between the top chaps slowly increased until it was around 3s each at the first round of pit stops.

Verstappen was getting very frustrated behind Magnussen, who was driving very well to defend against a car that was obviously faster. The frustration exceeded restraint, Verstappen put a wheel where he shouldn’t and executed a peerless pirouette. His car was fine but the melodrama allowed both Grosjean and Ricciardo to get past him (the Dutchman would subsequently complain of lacking front grip in the corners following his off-track excursion).

The Williams of Sirotkin decided to go on strike, and the Russian newcomer wisely managed to park his car in a run-off area so that yellow flags were all that was required.

A short while later Ericsson pulled into the pits to retire his Sauber.

Raikkonen was the first of the top chaps to pit, emerging ahead of the Haas and Ricciardo battle. Shortly thereafter, Hamilton pitted, retaining (even slightly extending) his modest lead over the Finn. Vettel did not pit. Indeed, he could not, as he would’ve emerged behind at least one Haas and potentially stuck behind all three (both Haas and the Aussie).

Haas then had Magnussen pit and screwed up the stop, failing to properly attach one tyre. He had to pull over and double waved yellows were necessary. I breathed a (short-lived) sigh of relief when the safety car didn’t emerge.

Then Grosjean pitted. And Haas made almost the exact same mistake (front left rather than rear left). He pulled over almost immediately, nowhere near an access road. This brought out the Virtual Safety Car.

Then Ferrari pounced, like an extremely lucky but nevertheless alert panther. Vettel pitted (as did Alonso/Ricciardo, I believe). The slower lap times meant Hamilton was travelling relatively slowly and Vettel made up enough ground in the pit lane to actually pass not only his team mate but Hamilton too. Out of nowhere, looking like the third man throughout the race to that point, Vettel had the lead.

Hamilton was confused and irritated, and understandably so. Then a full safety car came out and bunched up the field. After it had all shaken out, Ricciardo, who had started 8^th, was right behind Raikkonen (then in third position). Behind was Alonso, who benefited greatly, and Verstappen. The Dutchman passed the McLaren as it left the pits but was deemed to have overtaken (Alonso reached the line 0.1s ahead) and had to give the place back. Like a dog with a bone, the Spaniard would dig in his heels and refuse to let the whippersnapper have the position back for the entire race.

As things got going, Verstappen was unable to pass Alonso, and was himself very closely followed by Hulkenberg and Bottas. Bottas did make up ground from his 15^th starting position but never really lit up the coverage (unlike the epic clash between Lastname and Lastname, a duel for the ages that briefly appeared to amuse TV viewers).

At the sharp end, Hamilton was clearly faster than Vettel but overtaking is difficult on the Australian circuit, and the German does know his way around a steering wheel. Hamilton was unable to pass, and, far from pressuring Vettel into a mistake, himself went too wide and lost a few seconds. The speed with which Hamilton then closed from a 3s gap to within DRS range indicated his pure pace advantage, but it wasn’t enough to reclaim the win that had seemed his for the taking all race long (until the VSC).

Ricciardo was similarly racy, hassling Raikkonen’s rear with persistence. Yet the Finn was unflappable, and the two stayed in place, as did the four-way battle behind them (Alonso, Verstappen, Hulkenberg and Bottas). That was McLaren’s best place since 2016, and a fantastic result for the team. Great to see them sharp in the midfield and quick enough to hold off a Red Bull.

Vandoorne scored 9^th, making it a double points finish for McLaren (I forget the odds on that, it may’ve been around 3.75 pre-weekend). Sainz got 10^th, which is impressive considering, late on, he was complaining of feeling sick from his drinks bottle and had Perez right on his tail.

Neither Force India scored, coming home 11^th and 12^th. After so many years as best of the rest, this is quite the come down. Leclerc was 13^th, in a solid first race without any drama, ahead of Stroll and Hartley. Gasly had to retire, possibly with an engine problem.

A nice race with a couple of unexpected twists and a result that sets up the season well. However, it’s quite difficult to tell pace properly. Hamilton looked very quick behind Vettel, but stayed there. Raikkonen had hot air ahead for the first half and then had to be defensive (Ricciardo did have fresher tyres) for the rest. Both Red Bulls spent much of the race bottled up.

The battle between Haas, Renault, and McLaren is looking tasty. Such a shame Haas had what should’ve been a perfect start to the season ruined by two pit stop mistakes (also annoying it buggered my no safety car bet, but there we are). It also buggered the fastest lap bet, as Raikkonen was second in that (to Ricciardo, who is unlikely to have closed a 30-40s gap in that manner, preferring instead to try and chip away rather than go banzai).

Obviously the Drivers’ stand as the race result, but here are the Constructors’:

Ferrari 40

Mercedes 22

Red Bull 20

McLaren 12

Renault 7

Those five each had a double points finish. Given how things started for Red Bull (Ricciardo 8^th on the grid and Verstappen bottled up behind Magnussen after the first corner) they may not be too displeased. Not great for Mercedes, though.

The next race is Bahrain, in a fortnight.

Morris Dancer