Australia: pre-qualifying 2018

And so, the new season is about to properly kick off imminently. With the annoyingly early Australian Grand Prix. I think qualifying starts at 6am UK time, with the race now at the stupid ten minute past the hour mark of 6.10am. Also, I think the clocks go forward this weekend.

In other stupid news, the new F1 theme tune was revealed this week. Reaction has been very mixed. Personally, I think it’s alright (certain beats remind me of the Metal Gear Solid 2 theme). You can hear it for yourself here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KTETwgQnbsQ

Not as good as The Chain, of course. But that’s not the stupid part. The stupid part is the ‘action lap’, an idea to have no commentary at all for one lap whilst the theme tune plays. Not confirmed but I’ve heard it might feature a compilation of action replays of dramatic doings to that point in the race. It’s a dumb idea. You can never tell when a great overtake, sudden rain, pit stop woe, or enormous crash will happen.

Speaking of weather, that’s expected to be a major factor this weekend. The forecast has changed this way and that, but at the time of writing the forecast is:

100% of thundery showers for qualifying

Around 18% chance of rain during the race

I’ve also discovered that Spreadex offers spread bets for the race. I may mention suggestions in that area, but as I won’t be backing them myself they won’t count in the weekend figures.

In first practice, Hamilton was fastest, half a second ahead of his team mate Bottas. Verstappen and Raikkonen followed closely, Vettel and Ricciardo similarly close, but a seven-tenths gap from them to Grosjean. Alonso, Sainz and Vandoorne rounded out the top 10 (though it’s worth mentioning Gasly, Sirotkin, and Hulkenberg were very close, and Ocon and Stroll weren’t much further back).

Second practice was again led by Hamilton, but he was barely a tenth ahead of Verstappen. Bottas was about a tenth back, half a tenth up on Raikkonen (faster than Vettel again, this time by a quarter of a second). After Vettel was Grosjean, then Ricciardo. Alonso was a few tenths back, followed by Magnussen and Vandoorne.

Right now, the Haas is looking surprisingly tasty. Or perhaps not so surprising given how testing went. What is surprising is that things look close at the sharp end. Of course, there may well be sandbagging. Not only that, in qualifying, certain engines can be turned up more than others (although the impact of that will be more limited in the wet).

At the moment, I’m regretting I only stuck a tiny sum on Red Bull for the Constructors’ at 9.2.

Currently, the Spreadex market is sleeping, so nothing to offer there.

My thinking, without checking odds, was to look for things along the lines of:

Red Bull top score

Red Bull Constructors’

Grosjean top 6/points

Many classified finishers

Alonso points

Raikkonen fastest lap

Sadly, no top score market appeared. A shame, as I rather like it.

Red Bull are 4 for the Constructors’. They’ve got the best driver pairing of the probable competitive teams. However, there is a premium for winning (better to be 1^st and 3^rd than average a 2^nd), and there is still an assumption that Mercedes will have an overall performance advantage. It’s hard to say if this represents value or not. However, 6.2 is available on Betfair, and that looks too long, frankly.

Grosjean is 1.4 for points, and Alonso is 1.5 likewise. That’s too short, as rain is possible and reliability, whilst looking good in testing, may be wonky. Not to mention the midfield is forecast to be very competitive so a screwed up pit stop could cost a lot. Grosjean is 2.37 to be top 6, which is too short given the probable performance gulf, as well as the potentially super-competitive midfield.

There’s 2.5 for classified finishers to be over 15.5. Not long but I quite like it considering how good reliability looked in testing.

Raikkonen is 13 for fastest lap. He does like them, and got it here last year. Worth considering.

Other stuff that caught my eye:

Raikkonen 17 (each way, fifth the odds for top 3) to finish top of third practice. He’s been 4^th twice, and Ferrari last year often sandbagged until third practice. Not only that, he’s been (slightly) ahead of Vettel in both sessions so far. However, heavy rain is forecast. Which may rather help Red Bull.

No Safety Car is 3.75. With the chance of rain receding, this is interesting. There’s something like a 50/50 chance of one appearing I think, and the improving forecast makes this quite appealing. However, it’s got some underlying overlap with the classified finishers bet, so I’d probably go for one or the other, rather than both.

Verstappen is 7 for pole. In the wet, he stands a chance, though the power deficit will remain, and his prospects appear to be closely tied to the capricious weather.

Also, Raikkonen is 51 with Ladbrokes for the title. Each way, that’s a fifth the odds for top 3. On that basis, it may be worth a look.

So, many thoughts. Of the above (Ladbrokes unless otherwise noted), the ones that appeal most are:

Red Bull, Constructors’, 6.2 (Betfair Exchange)

Raikkonen, fastest lap, 13

Raikkonen, win P3 (each way, fifth the odds, top 2), 17

No Safety Car, 3.75

Verstappen, pole, 7

Quite a lot. Bit surprised given the state of pre-season uncertainty I’m tempted by so much. In the end, I’ve decided to offer three tips:

Red Bull for the Constructors’ at 6.2, with Betfair. Last year but for reliability they would’ve beaten Ferrari for 2^nd. They’ve got the best driver lineup of the top three teams and I think if they’re close in performance terms they’ve got a solid chance of winning the Constructors’ title. [NB this won’t count in weekend figures because it’s a season, not a race weekend bet].

With a low chance of serious race rain, I decided to back No Safety Car at 3.75 (3.9 with boost). Seems a bit long.

Raikkonen does like clocking up fastest laps, he’s got the car (probably) to do it, and 13 just looks too long (and it's 15 with boost). May be worth setting up a hedge at something like evens or 2.5 on Betfair if it looks like happening. Won’t reduce profit that much but it will offer some safety if some swine goes faster at the last minute.

I was really tempted by the Verstappen pole bet, but upon checking the forecast it’s already changed to a mere 62% (from 100%) chance of thundery showers. It’s credible but with weather that changeable and a single lap counting, I’m disinclined to bet.

I decided against tipping the practice bet, tempted as I was, because of dubious weather meaning it’s ripe for an unexpected result.

Anyway, three tips (two for the race and neither contingent on how qualifying goes, provided Raikkonen doesn’t destroy his car) is plenty for the first weekend. I may offer another tomorrow if the grid and markets conspire to throw something up that’s irresistible.

On an unrelated note, I just released my latest comedy, Sir Edric and the Plague. Do give the sample a look, and if you like that, buy yourself a copy.

Amazon

Smashwords

Morris Dancer