Azerbaijan: pre-race 2018

Qualifying was certainly interesting. Incidentally, apologies for a minor error in the previous blog, Mr. Sandpit referred to F2, not F1. My finger slipped, which may explain why I don’t work on a nuclear submarine.

In the first session, Grosjean’s gearbox decided not to play (incidentally, Hulkenberg has a five place grid penalty for changing his) and he didn’t get to set a time. The two Toro Rossos almost had a massive crash after Hartley was mindlessly trundling around the quickest part of the track, and only Gasly’s swift reactions prevented a huge collision. Both Toro Rossos failed to advance, Hartley taking full responsibility. Ericsson and Vandoorne also left at this stage.

In the second session the top three teams sent everyone out on the supersoft tyre, which should be better for the race. However, Ferrari only had one set. Raikkonen ended up ruining his pair and so had to set his fast lap on the ultrasofts, which it’s believed will be detrimental in the race (although much the same was said in China and the Red Bulls, starting on the same tyre, did perfectly well). Further down the order, Magnussen was the slowest, beaten by Leclerc by a full seven-tenths. Either it was an astounding lap by the Monegasque or Magnussen cocked up. Ahead of them was Alonso (he’s regularly been qualifying around 13^th, then rising to score in races), with Sirotkin and Stroll ahead. Not too bad for Williams given their recent performances.

Q3 had the top six plus the Force India and Renault pairings. On the first run, Vettel was fastest and Raikkonen cocked up. On the second run, Hamilton improved to leapfrog his team mate, but couldn’t match the German. Vettel made an error but his first lap was enough for pole. Raikkonen was on for pole, with two purple sectors, then made another mistake and ended up a lacklustre 6^th. Ricciardo and Verstappen line up 4^th and 5^th, Ricciardo within a tenth of Bottas and his team mate a similar margin behind.

The two Force Indias (disregarding Raikkonen’s unnecessarily slow lap) were half a second off the frontrunners but separated by just two-hundredths. I hope they don’t repeat the mistake of last year. They were also half a second ahead of the Renaults (Hulkenberg qualified 9^th, Sainz 10^th, but the German takes a five place penalty for a gearbox change). If that’s remotely indicative of actual pace, then the Force Indias stand to inherit the win should the top dogs spectacularly fail.

The bets that sprung to mind for me were:

Ricciardo, win

Many drivers, not to be classified

Safety Car (odds probably comically low, but we’ll see)

Ricciardo is 7 to win with Ladbrokes. Hmm. But longer with Betfair. The latter is pretty tempting. He’s been racing extremely well and the prime strategic focus of Red Bull’s rivals will be one another rather than him/Verstappen. [He’s 8 on Ladbrokes for ‘win only’].

Not to be classified has a variety of interesting options. Hamilton and Vettel are 7 each, Raikkonen 6 (but even more tempting given where he starts), Ricciardo is 4.33 and Verstappen 3.75. It’s tempting to slice up one regular stake into five slices. Another option is to pick a couple and back those. Hmm. Worthy of consideration.

The safety car is available at 1.16 (1.25 on Betfair). That’s a bit of a weak-kneed, bed-wetting sort of bet (I don’t like short odds) although it will probably come off.

Some possibilities above, but, as always, I had a general wander through the markets (though, like Socrates, not necessarily with anything in mind).

The top scoring team market is back, which is ironic because I like it a lot, but not for this sort of race which could well have a high number of DNFs.

Bottas is 10 to lead lap 1. The enormo-straight could be quite helpful for those behind Vettel, as he doesn’t have a rear gunner to protect him from the Mercedes pair.

Mr. Sandpit had an interesting suggestion of Raikkonen to win with a contra-strategy at 23. That’s worth considering (if I back it, I’ll hedge at something like 5 or so, I think).

Nothing stands out as fantastic, but there are quite a few possibilities worth weighing up.

I quite like both Ricciardo and Raikkonen to win (9.6 and 23 respectively at the time of writing). And the many DNFs bet. (There is also 1.72 for there to be under 16 classified finishers). There’s likely to be a safety car, and that will only harm Vettel’s hopes, as he starts in the lead. Raikkonen may be compromised by strategy. Hmm. Knotty.

I think Red Bull may be the team to beat. But also tempted by Verstappen to DNF at 3.75. He’s made a mistake at every race so far, and there isn’t a huge margin of error around the circuit in Azerbaijan.

Two tips for this weekend (or one and two halves, to be precise):

I’ve backed Ricciardo to win at 9.6 (Betfair), hedged at 3. He’s driving well, the car’s looking good, and the Mercedes/Ferrari teams will be more concerned with one another than Red Bull.

I’ve also backed Verstappen at 3.75 and Raikkonen at 6 not to be classified, splitting one stake between them. Both have looked a bit scruffy during the weekend. I accidentally split the stake evenly, normally I try and make it so each outcome is equally profitable, but never mind.

Anyway, the race is likely to be a procession broken up by sudden bursts of crashing excitement. Let’s hope it’s thrilling and green.

Morris Dancer