Bahrain: post-race analysis 2018

The bet didn’t come off. Ricciardo almost immediately had a gearbox failure which put him out of the race. Frustrating but also the sort of thing that can’t really be foreseen (as an aside, this and Hamilton’s gearbox change for this race indicates some fragility. If Ferrari don’t have this weakness it could be a rather helpful advantage, although Vettel is already on the second [of two permitted] electronic control units). Annoyingly, this also means we still have no idea of the race pace of the Red Bull, as Verstappen exited at practically the same time. It’s the first double DNF for Red Bull since Korea 2010, or thereabouts.

The race itself, however, was really rather good.

Off the line, most chaps on the evens (dirty) side struggled. Ricciardo lost a place to Gasly, and Raikkonen being passed by Bottas. There was minor contact and Perez suffered an involuntary pirouette.

Hamilton and Verstappen made swift progress carving through the field, and were side by side. The young Dutchman cut across Hamilton, and ended up giving himself a puncture a long way from the pits. Verstappen did get there and out again, eventually, but had lost a chunk of time and had to retire a very short time later.

At almost exactly the same moment, Ricciardo’s car decided two laps was fine and he lost all power. The Aussie had been part of the quartet (the Ferraris and Bottas being the rest) pulling away from the field quite comfortably. Unlike Australia, passing was eminently possible in Bahrain, which means we still have little idea of the real race pace of the Red Bull. I think my bet (best of the rest) could have come off but the early retirement made it both impossible to happen due to bad luck, and impossible to tell how likely it would have been to come off. Only three cars retired from the race, and Ricciardo’s was the only one wholly due to a reliability failure. Bit irksome.

The Virtual Safety Car ensued whilst the Red Bulls were removed from the circuit, which didn’t take too long. Hamilton continued to slice through the field like a xenomorph through a colony of humans, and Alonso was also making some progress. The Williams were looking as slow as an asthmatic snail.

First pit stops occurred around lap 11 of 57. It was some time later before the frontrunners took to the pits, with Ferrari stopping both their cars first and swapping the supersoft red tyres for the soft yellows. And then Mercedes did something cunning. They’d seen the likes of Alonso et al. pit for the white medium tyre and do rather well. The Silver Arrows have suffered all weekend with the red tyres (overheating them rapidly) and decided to opt for the medium. Their pace was good, and durability (35 or so laps required) was fine. Suddenly, it looked like Ferrari had thrown away the race. Vettel either had to make another pit stop and potentially emerge behind Hamilton, or to make the soft tyres last 39 laps (30 was the estimated range, from a race start. With lighter fuel loads later in a race, more is possible).

Behind this strategic conundrum, Pierre Gasly was having a magnificent race. Yes, he was a day and a half behind the top four, but he was clear of Magnussen and Hulkenberg and driving flawlessly. Ericsson was in the lower end of the points and being passed by a few cars, but points seemed possible for Sauber.

Ferrari brought in Raikkonen to put on fresh soft tyres. But the stop was a disaster. The left rear wasn’t changed but the traffic light switched to green. Raikkonen went (as he should when the light goes green), and ran over his own mechanic, fracturing his leg. The tyre wasn’t changed so he had to retire.

This left Vettel in the lead, but without a wingman. Hamilton was simply too far back to trouble Vettel on pace, but Bottas was homing in, taking a second a lap out of the German for the last couple of laps. He got within DRS range, but Vettel had seemingly both done a lot of fuel-saving in earlier laps, allowing for the thirstiest and fastest engine mode later on, and saved up as much ERS power as he could to fend off the Finn. But the Mercedes was clearly faster.

But not fast enough. To my surprise, Vettel managed to hold on for a great victory. Mercedes can’t complain too much about a double podium finish, but for Vettel to keep Bottas behind him was immensely impressive.

As was Gasly’s 4^th. Thoroughly deserved, and a welcome change for Toro Rosso after last time’s double DNF. Magnussen got 5^th, and Hulkenberg 6^th. Behind him came the two McLarens. The team has had double points finishes at both races so far, but with Gasly just one position off the podium, questions are being asked.

Ericsson managed to retain 9^th, getting some points for Sauber which could prove critical in the contest with Williams and the other backmarkers. Ocon got 10^th. Who would have thought this would be a pleasant surprise for Force India after two years of being the best of the rest?

A really good race, I thought, although the Ricciardo situation was rather unfortunate. Here’s how the Drivers’ stack up:

Vettel 50

Hamilton 33

Bottas 22

Alonso 16

Raikkonen 15

Hulkenberg 14

Gasly 12

Ricciardo 12

Magnussen 10

I’ve used advanced technology to put the drivers with one DNF in bold. Given that, you’d expect them to move up the order if they can improve reliability. Worth noting that for all the question marks above McLaren’s head right now, Alonso is 4^th in the title race. Obviously it’s advantage Vettel, but he’s benefited from fortune in Australia and Hamilton’s gearbox misfortune in Bahrain. And we still have no idea about the Red Bull pace.

Constructors’:

Ferrari 65

Mercedes 55

McLaren 22

Red Bull 20

Renault 15

This time, I’ve emboldened those with no DNFs so far. Mercedes are lucky Raikkonen had an inexplicable DNF. Red Bull could easily be on 40 odd points. They need to get their act together rapidly. Verstappen’s made mistakes in both races so far, which isn’t great.

I think what we’ve learnt so far is that the Ferrari is kinder to its tyres and likes/can cope with hotter temperatures. The Mercedes chews up rubber via thermal degradation (overheating) more rapidly but is very good on harder compounds.

The next race is China, in just a week’s time, then we’re on the fortnightly schedule for a few months. China, historically, has been a good track for Hamilton, so he’ll be hoping to make up some ground on Vettel.

Morris Dancer