Bahrain: pre-race 2018
The Raikkonen bet came
off, but only the each way aspect so the profit was modest. But it’s
still much better than being red. As an aside, the Betfair hedge also
came off.
In Q1, Verstappen lost
control and his front left suspension when he crashed into the
barriers. He’d already set a time fast enough to proceed, but (all
else being equal) he’ll start 15th. Eliminated in Q1
were the two Williams, with Stroll slowest of all, both Saubers, and,
very surprisingly, Grosjean in the much-fancied Haas. A stark turn
around for the Williams team, which a few years ago was very much a
frontrunner.
In Q2, it was McLaren
that underwhelmed, with both cars failing to proceed. Hartley and
Perez also left at this stage, with just over a tenth covering the
Kiwi, Mexican and Alonso.
And so to Q3. All
through qualifying it had looked very close between Ferrari and
Mercedes, with the Prancing Horse seemingly just ahead of the Silver
Arrows. Would the Mercedes engine get turned up and enable Bottas to
steal pole? Would Hamilton get the time but not the position? Would
Ferrari get their first pole in Bahrain in over a decade?
Yes, but only for the
last one. After the first runs, Raikkonen was a tiny margin ahead of
Vettel, who was a tenth ahead of Hamilton. In the second runs, Bottas
improved to grab 3rd, and Vettel achieved pole, though
Raikkonen was unable to go faster and had to settle for 2nd.
Hamilton qualified a
mere 4th, and with his grid penalty will start 9th.
It may be a long day tomorrow for him. Ricciardo was a couple of
tenths back but about a second ahead of the midfield. Gasly, who put
in a cracking performance in his Honda-powered Toro Rosso, will
feature on the third row, with Magnussen alongside him.
The fourth row will be
Hulkenberg and Ocon, whilst Sainz starts in 10th.
Hamilton and Verstappen
start 9th and 15th respectively. But passing
may (shockingly) be rather difficult. A one or two stop strategy
could work. Clear air will be the best friend of a driver.
Before checking the
markets, the bets that appealed to me most were:
Lay Hamilton, podium
Ricciardo, podium
I think Hamilton will
struggle to pass cars like the Haas, Red Bull or his team mate
(possible Mercedes will have a helpful strategy, though). His lay
odds are around 2.48, and I was expecting something a bit shorter.
Red Bull’s pace looks
good and they’re always better in the race, relative to others,
than in qualifying. Also worth noting the Mercedes looked very good
on the soft (yellow) tyres but struggled much more with overheating
the supersoft (red). Ricciardo is 2.1 for a podium, which looks
reasonable but not outstanding.
Perusing the markets, a
few things caught my eye.
Ricciardo, winner, 13
Bottas, to beat
Hamilton, 1.95
Ricciardo, winner
(without Ferrari), 3.75
I think the Red Bull is
going to be tasty in the race. Coming through to win would be
significant, but those on pole have a weird tendency to fail to win
in Bahrain. In the last four races it’s happened just once. That
said, Ferrari have the front row locked out. I do think if anyone can
beat them, it’s Ricciardo. Bottas has looked ok this weekend but
the Mercedes tends to excel in qualifying, whereas the Red Bull has
better (relative) pace in races. 13 is not as long as I’d like.
Bottas to beat Hamilton
is simply based on them starting 3rd and 9th
respectively. On-track, Hamilton may struggle to pass the upper end
of the midfield. But not super long odds.
The winner without
Ferrari market is an interesting addition to Ladbrokes’ usual
assortment (I still want Top Scoring Team back, though). It is
available each way but for 3.75 (third the odds, top 2) it doesn’t
make much sense. Given Ricciardo’s 2.1 for a podium, this is quite
a similar bet for nicer odds.
Unfortunately, whilst a
few bets look interesting. Nothing really grabs me. But, I’ve
offered a tip on every race for a long whilst now, so, the one that
appeals most is:
Ricciardo, winner
without Ferrari, 3.75 [3.9 with boost]
I think he’s driving
very well, the Red Bull will be impressive in the race and he stands
a good chance of passing Bottas. I’d like longer odds, but there we
are.
Post-race may be
delayed a bit, could be up tomorrow.
Morris Dancer
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