China: post-race analysis 2018
Alas, the Hamilton bet
not only failed, it never looked close, so red with or without the
hedge. In half-annoyance and half-delight, I learnt late on that a
one stop (ultrasoft-medium) was considered viable after all, and put
a tiny sum on the Red Bulls to win (26 Verstappen, 31 Ricciardo).
Smaller stakes but one came off, though I learnt of it too late for a
blog tip. I ended up ahead overall for the race.
Off the line, Raikkonen
started well, and Vettel squeezed him. This kept the German his place
but enabled Bottas and Verstappen to get past Raikkonen.
Whilst there was much
to-ing and fro-ing in the midfield, the race settled down, with small
gaps emerging between the top 6. And, to be honest, it became a
little worrisome, the race seemingly destined for a boring result.
But boring it was not.
Red Bull pitted first,
slotting on the mediums. Mercedes reacted pretty quickly, but this
time it was Ferrari caught napping. They needlessly left Vettel out a
few laps too long, and when the pit stops had shaken out, Bottas was
effectively leading Vettel (both on medium tyres). Raikkonen was kept
out to act as a roadblock for Bottas, backing him into Vettel. This
put (after pitting) the Iceman back into 6th. Whilst
Vettel was within a second of Bottas, he was unable to effect a pass.
Further down the field
there was much intra-team grumbling. Grosjean was a grumpy goose at
being asked to let Magnussen through, Ocon was saying naughty words
about his team mate, and the two Toro Rossos clashed when Gasly tried
to pass Hartley with all the finesse of a drunk wearing boxing
gloves. The hairpin was covered in debris, which brought out the
safety car (and ultimately seems to have caused Hartley’s
retirement, the race’s solitary instance of such).
Red Bull dove into the
pits for soft tyres. And it proved to be genius.
Behind the safety car,
the top four were struggling for heat in their mediums, and when the
race resumed the Red Bulls had fresher, faster, grippier rubber.
Verstappen and Ricciardo set about their mission to pass the field,
but the young Dutchman (again) recklessly tried a move that just
wasn’t on against Hamilton. There was the minor consequence of
Verstappen taking a scenic route, which allowed Ricciardo to get
ahead of him.
The Aussie then set
about carving up every driver ahead of him like a half-starved shark
feasting on a capsized boatload of tourists. Undoubtedly aided by his
superior tyres, he nevertheless was excellent, being bold yet
measured (Verstappen’s got the first of those but he really needs
to learn when discretion is the better part of valour). From 6th
to 1st, Ricciardo passed the lot and then pulled away for
his first victory of the season.
Verstappen passed
Hamilton and then closed in on Vettel (3rd, at this point
and still close behind Bottas). The Dutchman tried another move that
wasn’t on, and both men spun, letting past Raikkonen (whose late
stop now meant his fresher tyres had helped him past Hamilton) and
the Briton. It was 100% Verstappen’s fault. Worse still, either
damage or tyre problems meant Vettel’s pace vanished. He was passed
by Hulkenberg and then Alonso, barely holding on for 8th
against Sainz (the pair recorded identical times).
Verstappen got a 10s
time penalty, which seems unduly lenient given the impact upon the
title race. He has taken responsibility for the incident, and Vettel
was restrained his post-race comments, whilst attributing blame to
the Dutchman.
Nevertheless,
Verstappen soon got past Hamilton and closed up on Bottas and
Raikkonen, but was unable to effect a pass. The penalty put him
behind the Briton so the final order at the sharp end was Ricciardo,
Bottas, Raikkonen, Hamilton and Verstappen.
Hulkenberg got a strong
6th, just half a second off Verstappen come the chequered
flag and 9s clear of Alonso. As mentioned above, Vettel and Sainz
were very close indeed, with Magnussen nabbing the final point. Ocon
and Perez were 11th and 12th and may have
suffered from the safety car’s timing (as Red Bull and Alonso
benefited), but that’s how things go.
All in all, a very
eventful and exciting race, just a week after a similarly eventful
and exciting race. Sadly both were red (Bahrain due to bad luck and
this one because of poor judgement).
Drivers’:
Vettel 54
Hamilton 45
Bottas 40
Ricciardo 37
Raikkonen 30
Only a few races in, so
it’s tight at the top. Worth noting Ricciardo and Raikkonen both
have one DNF each (neither their fault). Vettel was very unlucky
today, and Hamilton, whilst being rather lacklustre all weekend,
narrowed the gap quite a bit. Unless Hamilton improves, he may be at
risk from his team mate. The Englishman has been unusually downbeat
as well. I wonder if off-track distractions are affecting him. Vettel
is in a stronger position than the result today indicates. I think
he’s in good shape for the title.
Constructors’:
Mercedes 85
Ferrari 84
Red Bull 55
McLaren 28
Renault 25
I still think Red Bull
could get this title. But perhaps Ferrari will. Tricky. In the
midfield contest, it remains tight between Renault and McLaren, with
the bumblebees reducing the sunburnt smurfs’ advantage [good/bad
nicknames?]. Both are quick and reliable, though I think the odds
favour Renault, simply because their driver pairing is better and
their qualifying likewise. McLaren are good at coming through the
field but that won’t work as well when we’re at places like
Monaco. Or Azerbaijan, which is in a fortnight.
Azerbaijan is an
interesting circuit in terms of it being very tight and then having a
ridiculous straight. Last year we had a comedy nonsense (which very
nearly had a 201 shot come off, but for the Force Indias attacking
each other). High attrition can happen. In that circumstance it
favoured Ricciardo and Stroll, suggesting top line speed is the way
for an outsider to do well. May be worth keeping an eye on Haas (who
were also tasty around the tight Australian circuit).
Three races in, we’ve
had two cracking races, and the title races are tightly contested.
Azerbaijan starts on the 27th.
Morris Dancer
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