Spain: pre-race 2018
I feel mildly aggrieved
that I backed Bottas for pole with a hedge at 1.5, he missed pole by
just 0.04s yet the hedge went unmatched. So close, and yet so
unprofitable. A small misjudgement on my part, but after ill fortune
at the first two races (and a narrow miss at a very long odds bet in
Azerbaijan) I’d like the rub of the green.
Hartley didn’t make
qualifying, surprising no-one. What did surprise many people was that
Hulkenberg failed to escape Q1. This was largely due to a fuel
pressure problem, which forced a quick pit stop and appears to have
compromised his pace when he finally set a lap (this is the first
time in 2018 Sainz has outqualified his team mate). Less surprising
was the departure of both Williams (Sirotkin had a three place grid
penalty for the crime of being sandwiched between two cars last time
out, and Stroll increased his insurance premiums by dismantling some
advertising with his car), and Ericsson.
In Q2, neither Force
India progressed, with Perez slowest in the session and Leclerc
between the two pink panthers. Vandoorne and Gasly also failed to
make Q3.
The final session was
intriguingly poised, as it really did look like Ferrari had been
sandbagging, and they appeared very close to, or even marginally faster
than, Mercedes. The first run in Q3 turned all that on its head.
Hamilton was fastest, and Bottas was a bit poor, nearly half a second
off. Between the two of them were both Red Bulls. Ferrari had a
shocker, with Vettel just fifth, and Raikkonen in seventh. Then a
very weird thing happened in the final runs. Raikkonen and Ricciardo
(maybe some others, not sure) went out on the slower soft tyre,
rather than the supersoft. Why? Because the pace difference was small
but the durability was much better, and the faster tyres were falling
off in the final sector. Even weirder, it worked. Ricciardo went
faster but fell two-thousandths short of his team mate. Bottas went
quicker, but was four-hundredths off Hamilton’s pole position time.
Vettel lines up 3rd,
just a tenth off Bottas, with Raikkonen alongside him. The Red Bulls
were relegated to their customary third row. Magnussen and Alonso are
on row four, with Sainz and Grosjean finishing off the top 10. Worth
noting that the fourth and fifth rows, whilst some way off Red Bull,
were separated by less than two-tenths.
The top six are on the soft, which, right now, looks like the
best tyre.
At the moment, the
weather forecast is indicating between a third and a quarter chance
of rain, probably light. I checked again on Sunday morning, and the
forecast was almost 100% dry.
My initial betting
thoughts were:
Bottas/Vettel to win
Red Bulls to DNF
Leclerc points
Bottas is 4.5 to win,
Vettel 5.5 (5 and 6 respectively on the win only market). I think
those odds are a little short. Hamilton typically starts well, and
will have the first pit stop (if he retains his advantage) at
Mercedes. Not awful odds, though.
Verstappen and
Ricciardo are 4 to not be classified. They have, each, a 50%
finishing record. The odds aren’t bad, although after Baku one
would expect that the team has quietly asked them not to smash into
one another this weekend. Of course, they have Magnussen close behind
them.
I was impressed with
Leclerc last race, and in Q1 he was a full second ahead of his team
mate. Starts 14th on the grid, so rising for points would
be impressive. His odds are 4.5, which seems short to me.
As is traditional, I
perused the markets.
A #getaprice special on
Ladbrokes raised my interest. 101 on Sirotkin, Grosjean, Ericsson and
Hartley all not being classified. So far this year, the first two
have a 50% DNF rate and the latter two a 25% DNF rate. Of course,
multiplying the odds, as each contingency must occur, leads to (all
else being equal) odds of one in 64, making 101 appear value.
The first lap leader
market has Bottas at 6 and Vettel at 8.5. I think Vettel’s
generally started a bit weakly. Bottas may be value, and I perhaps
prefer that to the 4.5 for the win. Worth considering.
Renault are 3.4 for a
double points finish. Hulkenberg starts far down the grid due to a fuel
pressure problem in qualifying, but both he and Sainz had a strong
result here last year. Possible, but quite a few ways it could go
wrong.
Of the above bets, I do
quite like the 101 (131 with boost) on a quartet of not
classified chaps, although it’s worth noting the number of DNFs
tends to be middling, and every driver named has to fail. Maybe worth
a pound or two rather than a full bet.
Verstappen/Ricciardo to
not be classified at 4 each is also quite tempting. Reliability
failures have been one, with three down to driver error.
Leclerc/Renault points
bets I find a bit tricky to assess. The young Monegasque has been
driving well so far, with no DNFs to his name. Renault has the car
and drivers to be there or thereabouts, but Hulkenberg would have
quite a way to climb, and the double aspect of that bet means a
collision, driver or pit stop error could ruin it twice as easily.
It’s not the most
heroic bet in the world, and I was genuinely tempted to just go for
the 101 as the proper tip, but I’ve decided to split a stake
between Verstappen and Ricciardo not to be classified. Let us hope
Magnussen has a roaring start and introduces himself to the pair of
them.
Tricky deciding, so
we’ll see how it goes. Race starts just after 2pm.
Morris Dancer
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